House Prices Falling

Looks like house prices are finally starting to fall.

Medium price for St kilda in Sep was $711,500, however October its $468,000

House Prices Australia from MYRP - Australian Property Prices

South Yarra has the same story.

Sep 1,080,000; October is 727,000

House Prices Australia from MYRP - Australian Property Prices

12 month growth for south yarra is -0.8%

with another interest rate hike around the corner.. we can only presume more downward pressure on house prices. This is good news, as I'm looking at entering the market hopefully in the next couple years!

Will be interesting to see the November medium price!

 

Yeah but its hard to take the median prices in sales. One year you can sell 10 propertys very different to the following years 10 properties and its always going to skew the results. The south yarra one i believe but does anyone really believe suburbs are dropping 30-40% in 6 months. I surely dont....

Remember interest rate rises only effect certian subjects. Do you think the people in Pymble or Syd's North sure care about the interest rates. A one bed unit in manly is like $600k. Thats like 50k interest a year and their would need to be a combined income of over $150k for interest to be less than 30% of their wage.

Dont get me started on the bloke who bought something (residential) for $29m only to knock it down and rebuild

 

Dave, I agree, this is why really we will need 3 months of data to confirm if prices have actually dropped. Property prices are generally hard to follow..

I doubt the price did fall 30-40% but it does show a downward movement.. once we have nov and dec medium prices, the picture should become more clear.

In saying that, two suburbs which I watch (st kilda and south yarra), have actually shown down trend..

 

I find the best way to check price movements is to regularly visit for sale websites in the areas you are interested in and follow the prices of private sales. In Victoria where sales are predominantly auctions you need to get out to the auctions or check prices in the paper at auction results.

Homepriceguide has its value but needs to be read in conjunction with your own research.

Having said all that I suspect there may be a little plateauing going on in Brisbane and Melb who have has stellar runs this year.

MJK

 

Hi crc_error,

Nope, the Sydney areas I'm looking at are holding up nicely thank you very much. In fact they're booming ahead at 10%+ pa growth rates.

http://www.domain.com.au/Public/Art...Index&headline=Sydney++39;s split personality

I'm a Northern Beaches investor, so Avalon and Seaforth in that article best represent my market. But the title says it all. It really is a tale of the affluent vs non-affluent suburbs and their differing performance of late.

And in reference to the Northen Beaches:

Cheers,
Michael.

 

According to RPData, Avalon results are:

2007 -1.2%
2006 -7.2%

Seaforth

2007 +14.2%
2006 +10.15%

Current Medium of Seaforth is 1,365,000, whereas October 12 months ago it was 1,305,000 so really looks like 2008 results are going to be flat. Last couple years results have been good for seaforth.

 

crc,

Seeing as you have access to RPData, could you let me know what Mona Vale and North Narrabeen have done over the last few years? Mona Vale is my IP and North Narrabeen my PPOR.

Although, you've got to be careful taking those results as gospel due to the potential for a statistically invalid sample set. There may be not enough sales to be statistically viable. Can anyone remember the absolute minimum sample set for statistical viability? Was it 100 odd, more? The results can be skewed when there's too few to make for a representative sample.

Still interested in Mona Vale and North Narrabeen though.

Cheers,
Michael.

PS I see negative or flat as a good thing as it shows its shaping for a nice boom when it goes. Property prices are like a stair case. Sharp jumps then prolonged flats while it rebalances.

 

Mona Vale

2007 +6.7%
2006 +11.1%

current medium 2,200,000

Sep 07 medium was 780,900 so this result looks a little skewed.

Oct 06 was 900,000

 

North Narrabeen

2007 +3.4%
2006 +1.7%

current medium is $720,000 Sep 07 1,315,000

October 06 $830,000 Nov 06 $645,000

 

CRC,

The REIV website has StKilda at a median of $755,500 for the Sep 07 quarter up from $750,000 for the June 07 quarter. Even so they indicate that even their data may be statistically skewed as there wasn't more than 30 sales for the quarter. Perhaps relying on a few sales within a month is even less reliable.

Cheers

Apprentice

 

I don't consider the data REIV publish. REIV data is what realestate agents choose to submit to them, hence agents will only submit their 'better' results.

RPData I believe uses data submitted to the lands office.. so they use every sale in their results.. not what agents submit to them.

 

Yep, a bit skewed indeed!

I guess that's the point I was trying to make about using these statistical medians as a benchmark for how that market is actually doing. If Mona Vale reverts to the mean around 800,000 then that will show as a huge percentage drop won't it!

Thanks for the numbers though. All looking good...

Cheers,
Michael

 

What's a median ?

 

Median - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

Sorry, the net isn't so hot for transmitting sarcasm. Perhaps I should have used this guy

 

Lol - either that or a grammar nazi one. <- just to show I'm kidding!

 

Looks like this news.com article is supporting my view:

Property investors bide time | NEWS.com.au

INVESTORS are marking time as nationwide demand for properties fell by 7 per cent during the third quarter of 2007.

Tasmania had the biggest percentage fall, 48 per cent, while Queensland had the largest drop in numbers, 80,000, which represented a 36 per cent drop over the period.

Victoria and South Australia/Northern Territory were marginally lower by 2 and 3 per cent, respectively.

 

lower demand = lower prices.. hence why some suburbs I pointed out had a lower October medium.. it well may pickup again.. only time will tell..

plus I hardly think anyone will put off buying a house because of a election.. typically spring is the busiest months of the year for realestate.

 

If you believe that the outcome would affect interest rates - then surely it would.