Bear market rallies only delay day of reckoning

Bear market rallies only delay day of reckoning

Every slump is punctuated by exuberant bursts of optimism, known to traders as "bear market rallies".
Japan had four false dawns during its long slide into the abyss.
Each lifted Tokyo's Nikkei index by an average of 53pc. Such bounces can be intoxicating.

"Bear markets are terrible for the human psyche.
You get one profit warning after another. People see their hopes dashed so many times that they stop believing," said Mr Draaisma.

"You have got to be very disciplined and not buy shares too early just because they look cheap.
Things can go down further than you ever dare believe," he said.

He is not predicting a bloodbath along the lines of 1929-1933 (-88pc) or 2001-2003 (-49pc): just a long slog, with failed rallies.

Bear market rallies only delay day of reckoning - Telegraph

 

"All these "Financial Gurus" have made so much money over the last few years risking Taxpayers' money, and now the Taxpayers will end up paying this bill. I saw a CNN writer describe it as "private profit and socialised losses." "

Otherwise known as 'Corporate Welfare'. Incidentally, this costs taxpayers a lot more money than social welfare...

Yet another excellent post, thanks Tropo.

Mark

 

Recent Three Month Charts of the ASX and DJIA look pretty good and last night the DJIA broke through 13,000 a few times and remained above it by the close

<sorry no charts to post>

 

Below is an extract from the article:
Who do we believe now?

"The pessimists at Société Générale remain sceptical, even though the Fed has gone nuclear. "We expect global equity prices to fall by up to 75pc from their peaks as a deep global economic downturn unfolds over the next few years," said Albert Edwards, their global strategist. He fears a 50pc collapse in earnings, compounded by an "Ice Age derating of equities"."

 

Under 14,000 level Dow is still bearish (IMHO).
So, approx. 1000 points to go...

 

I'm not expecting a Bull to appear anytime soon, but am happy with the general trend over the last few Months (DJIA back to Jan 08 Level & ASX making up for some of the Feb-March kick in the guts)

 

IMHO, there are too many financial gurus so it becomes confusing as to who to believe.

Whilst definately not someone who has their finger on the pulse in regards to the markets, whenever I view CNN or some other similar channel, there always seems to be conflicting views. One "expert" will say the worst is behind us while another will say we still have a long way to go bla bla bla.

Same applies to housing. One expert will say house prices to rise by X% over the next so many years and then of course you'll hear someone else stating that house prices are set to fall.

Flip a coin

 

Well, this has been a sustained rally with the All ords up over 5800 again. What is your gut feeling?

Worst is over and better start getting back in slowly so as we dont miss the bottom all together?

Or

Dont be a Dill, If you buy now you'll probably take another hit on the next dip round he corner!

perhaps we've all aclimatised to the US slowdown and are less affected?

MJK

 

The best thing to do is to just not even listen to any of these people and watch the fundamentals and make investment decisions based on that. Smart investors are able to use any market situation to their advantage.

Mark