Managed Funds Navra Unit Price

Discussion in 'Shares & Funds' started by ActiveTrade, 13th Jun, 2008.

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  1. OLI__

    OLI__ Well-Known Member

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    Agreed Sim. I’m not disputing that and I’m looking forward to some very nice distributions once the market goes up again. :)

    My point is Steve said in 20 years of trading he has always made realized profits of at least 10% p.a. in good and bad years…not at least 10% p.a. unless the market ends the year at a low point. So if the distribution this quarter is only another 1-2% then it will be his worst end of year result in 2 decades!

    I'm looking forward to Steve's next market commentary to hear his thoughts on this.
     
    OLI__, 4th Jul, 2008
    #61
  2. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    The fund is still aiming to distribute 8% for the year.

    The 10% goal being thrown about is a distribution figure, not a total return figure.
     
    Simon Hampel, 4th Jul, 2008
    #62
  3. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    To a large degree, the fund is merely a victim of bad timing. Indeed, most sharemarket investments are suffering from the same "bad timing" as far as the returns for the financial year go!

    If the year had ended with a recovery, I'm sure the distribution would have been much more healthy. As it is, we just have to wait for the recovery before we get those realised profits.

    If you look at the quarterly distributions from the fund (most recent quarter first):

    1.85%, 3.00%, 2.50%, 8.03%, 4.00%, 3.06%, 2.00%, 5.11%, 3.17%, 2.40%, 5.40%, 4.37%, 3.72%, 3.27%, 3.23%

    And then look at rolling 4 quarter returns:

    15.38%, 17.53%, 17.59%, 17.09%, 14.17%, 13.34%, 12.68%, 16.08%, 15.34%, 15.89%, 16.76%, 14.59%

    ... you'll see that the fund is still distributing over 10% on average every 4 quarters.

    If we add a 1% distribution for this last quarter, then the rolling quarter total is 8.35% (which corresponds to the financial year distribution).

    If the fund subsequently distributes at least 3% each quarter for the next 3 quarters, then by March 2009, we'll be back at 10% for the 4 quarter period.

    It is these two quarters of less than 2% distribution that have hurt returns - which corresponds to the bear market over that same period.

    I have no doubt that if the market recovers a decent amount over the next 6 - 12 months, then the distributions will be back to well in excess of 3% per quarter.

    Note that the median distribution over the past 15 quarters has been 3.2% and the average has been 3.7%
     
    Simon Hampel, 4th Jul, 2008
    #63
  4. TryHard

    TryHard Well-Known Member

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    I must admit feeling uneasy about leaping back into any managed fund because of uncertainty in the market, but the NI unit price being south of $0.90 for the first time in a long time is going to make it a bit hard to resist at least dipping a toe in the water again.

    Our super fund still has NI as well as a couple of other managed funds and they all copped a hiding this year, so I don't have any major worries with how NI has performed given it's pretty universal. Hopefully the 'volatility' it (should) thrive on will be seen in the coming year rather than a consistently bearish market - the risk of which is stopping me considering any sort of margin loan.

    Fun ! (I hope) :)
     
    TryHard, 5th Jul, 2008
    #64
  5. lorrimer

    lorrimer Well-Known Member

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    I don't mind a low distribution as I need to preserve my LVR (margin call very close).
    However there was some very good volatility earlier in the quarter with a big bounce in May.
    I thought Navra would have locked in good profits during this time. Perhaps these profits have been offset by trading losses.
    I heard that the distribution would be in the region of 1.5 cents per unit.
    The other thing to bear in mind is that we were heading for at least a 3% distribution for the 3rd quarter before the switch over to warrants cut it down to 1.8%.
    Had it paid this 3%, that would have made it 10% for the year.
    I'm going to be dollar cost averaging into the fund over the coming months with funds from my LOC.
    I've sold down some managed funds that hadn't lost too much to reduce my margin loan. It was costing more to hold on to them than they were paying out in distributions.
    My aim is to create an income stream for the long term. In addition to Navra, I'm looking at STW and SLF.
    My hope is that, despite the pain that this present situation is causing, it has given me the opportunity to realign my portfolio making it stronger going forward and more suitable to my needs. My needs being income to live on and to cover the holding costs of my IP.
     
    lorrimer, 5th Jul, 2008
    #65
  6. seaview

    seaview Well-Known Member

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    Something has been perplexing me about all this.

    The ASX 200 fell to around 5000 2 years ago, and at that point the Navra units were worth way more than they are now (Ranging from $1.10 to $1.20 ish).

    The ASX 200 is again down to 5000, yet the Navra fund is down to 90c. Why is that so?

    The only thing I can think of is that they must have made a lot of losses along the way for the value of their holdings to go so low. (It is of concern that they like to be heavy in financials.)

    Perhaps someone can explain this anomoly for us laymen.

    Cheers
    Seaview :confused:
     
    seaview, 5th Jul, 2008
    #66
  7. Handyandy

    Handyandy Well-Known Member

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    Hi seaview

    What about the 35 cents that was distributed in that 2 year time frame!

    Then on top of that there may be shares that have been purchased at prices above the 5000 threshold which now have dropped back or gone lower. Remember the system is a trading system and as such will definitely have bought and sold shares at levels well above 5000.

    Cheers
     
    Handyandy, 5th Jul, 2008
    #67
  8. rambada

    rambada Well-Known Member

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    I am a poor student of managed funds but I also believe that what stocks were held by the fund affects the price. ie if they were heavily into banking stocks, then the market fall has more adversly affected that sector. There have been times I have heard that the market took a beating & yet the Navra unit price has risen. This is the only thing I can figure out.
     
    rambada, 6th Jul, 2008
    #68
  9. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    The last time the ASX200 closed below 5000 points was Sep 26, 2006.

    The unit price on that day was 1.0712, but that was just before the end of the quarter - and there was a 2.2c per unit distribution (plus possible some undistributed profits held over until the end of the financial year.

    I'd suggest 1.05 is about right (possibly a bit high) for the distribution adjusted unit price.

    So with a unit price now around 0.90, that makes about 15c drop in unit price ... or 14% drop in value.

    The only thing I can suggest is that the market was not far off its peaks back in 2006, where now it is a long way from the peak (indeed more likely near the bottom of the market). As handyandy suggested I think it may well be explained by the shares the fund has bought along the way - particularly during the current bear market ... which have subsequently fallen further. The fund does buy more in a falling market - and as the market continues to fall (as it has), the value of those shares will drop too.

    The ASX200 Financials sector index (XFJ) ended the year down 34.9% ... and if the fund is heavy in financials, then the recent negative performance of these stocks will drag the unit price down with them.

    I don't think it's anything to be overly concerned about in the short term (other than making sure your LVR is healthy enough). What will be more interesting is what the unit price gets to once we hit 6800 again.
     
    Simon Hampel, 6th Jul, 2008
    #69
  10. ActiveTrade

    ActiveTrade Well-Known Member

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    FYI -

    2.55 cents per unit for Retail Fund is news I heard today.

    :)
     
    ActiveTrade, 8th Jul, 2008
    #70
  11. MJK__

    MJK__ Well-Known Member

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    Better than expected. Phew!:D

    MJK
     
    MJK__, 8th Jul, 2008
    #71
  12. voigtstr

    voigtstr Well-Known Member

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    Anyone else noticed the distribution for CFS geared share: 0.2958

    Thats nearly a 26% distribution!
     
    voigtstr, 8th Jul, 2008
    #72
  13. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    I bet you'll find that's as a result of forced sell-downs as they manage their gearing levels. They have seen huge growth over the past 5 years during the boom, and now it all gets distributed because they had to sell - so the distribution will contain large amounts of capital gains I'd suggest.

    I hold this fund via my SMSF and if I wasn't reinvesting distributions, my capital value would be only 51% of what I paid for it :eek:

    Time to buy more I think :D
     
    Simon Hampel, 8th Jul, 2008
    #73
  14. moonbeamzz

    moonbeamzz Member

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    Hi ActiveTrade,
    2.55 cpu is good news, is that confirmed or just a 'there or thereabouts' scenario.

    The other side of the equation of course is the pressure that a reduced unit price can create. Still can't have it both ways in the current environment. Hopefully we are near the bottom and traditionally there is a flattening/sideways period before the haul starts up the staircase again. Would be nice to start that climb but the only thing I know for certain is that nobody knows, not the gurus, not the pundits not anybody. Some are just a little bit better forecasters that others.

    Cheers :)
     
    moonbeamzz, 8th Jul, 2008
    #74
  15. ActiveTrade

    ActiveTrade Well-Known Member

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    This has been confirmed by NI.
     
    ActiveTrade, 8th Jul, 2008
    #75
  16. moonbeamzz

    moonbeamzz Member

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    Thanks Active Trade, in the circumstances :)
     
    moonbeamzz, 8th Jul, 2008
    #76
  17. Bob__

    Bob__ Well-Known Member

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    Navra dist.

    2.4109 for the WS fund

    Bob
     
    Bob__, 8th Jul, 2008
    #77
  18. Mark Leo

    Mark Leo Well-Known Member

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    Does anyone know the dist for the Navra US Fund?
    ML
     
    Mark Leo, 8th Jul, 2008
    #78
  19. Nigel Ward

    Nigel Ward Well-Known Member

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    I'll avoid those "horse's mouth" jokes :D. Steve said:

     
    Nigel Ward, 8th Jul, 2008
    #79
  20. Redwing

    Redwing Well-Known Member

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    Horses Mouth...I'd say why the long face ;)

    10% was much better than expected of late, we did pretty well outside of the fund with some trading as well this FY (now if i could only add some more $0's to what I'm comfortable trading with... Ha Ha; not likely)
     
    Redwing, 8th Jul, 2008
    #80
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