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1st Quarter Distribuition

Discussion in 'Managed Funds & Index Funds' started by Here_To_Learn, 29th Aug, 2006.

  1. Here_To_Learn

    Here_To_Learn Well-Known Member

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    Question - will there be a payment this quarter ? From looking at the data on navrainvest site it does not appear to be so.

    Only 4 weeks to go.
     
  2. TryHard

    TryHard Well-Known Member

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    HTL

    Pardon my ignorance (of which there is plenty ;-) ) but how did you come to that conclusion ?

    Cheers
    Carl
     
  3. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Co-founder Staff Member

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    There's no way (other than asking NavraInvest directly ... and they probably wouldn't tell you) to determine whether there will be a distribution this quarter from information on the web site.

    Unit price alone is not enough to determine the distribution, since the unit price also fluctuates based on the market valuation of the shares held in the fund.
     
  4. Smartypants

    Smartypants Well-Known Member

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    What!?!?

    Hope you're wrong.

    Also hoping the US fund may provide a return this time round.
     
  5. TryHard

    TryHard Well-Known Member

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    If you read that Ruth Ostrow column on the weekend, even though she can be a bit annoying, the gist was about that "The Secret" doco coming soon.

    "What we most want at a deep unconcious level, we manifest; what we most fear, we attract. What we dwell on, what we obsess over, good or bad, is drawn mysteriously, even magically, into our lives"

    On that basis (and I am fully starting to believe this whole higher meaning thing), the last thought I am gonna entertain in my little brain is the thought of a nil distribution from NI.

    Positive thoughts everyone :D - go to your happy post-distribution place ;-)
     
  6. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    There is still a chance that XJO breaks 5140/50 level and IF moves up, this may be positive for distribution.
    The same situation (more or less) is with DOW which is capped at approx. 11400 level.
    ;)
     
  7. Rickson

    Rickson Well-Known Member

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    I'm into public accountability BUT I'm feeling some sympathy for Steve. What other funds have such frequency of discussion of distributions? Let's all get a bit longer term about our investment decisions!

    Surely there must be some income and therefore some distribution, even in a negative quarter.

    I am not a paid up part of the Steve team, but I reckon the distribution will be at least 1.5%.
     
  8. TryHard

    TryHard Well-Known Member

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    I agree with that sentiment. I think 'cos NI was pitched at Mum and Dad retail investors and newbies like myself, it is always going to have a lot of people over-analysing, panicking and generally getting freaked out. The reality is people have invested, saying they fully understand the PDS, and likely not really understanding what they are investing in or the risks.

    I doubt Macquarie gets hammered to death on a regular basis over a quarter of slow performance.

    I'm not referring specifically to this thread, but as Rickson says, there is a fair frequency of discussion about the fund and its returns, and the panic element to me is unjustified if you look at the previous figures and returns.

    I think investors need to re-read the PDS and decide if NI is for them, if the SANF is enough of an issue that the possibility of nil distribution needs to be continually dragged up.

    Technically, if the market crashes, we could probably lose a significant portion of our investment, let alone miss a distribution (however a lot of other vastly less conservative funds would be long gone beforehand). Does that mean you should put your money in a term deposit ? What does your Financial Adviser say ?
     
  9. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    I guess, some people can not understand that they can not win all the time.
    You win some - you lose some. That is the name of the game. :p
    :cool:
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 30th Aug, 2006
  10. redrover

    redrover Well-Known Member

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    Troppo and others

    This fund was marketed on the basis of a conservative INCOME fund to provide regular income for the mum and dad style investors to help top up short falls in investment property, income for other investments, or simply to "live". We should not even have to consider "win some, lose some". This investment is not supposed to be a gamble.

    Using Steve's LIVING ON EQUITY basis those who have borrowed on lines of credit to then leverage up have those costs to be met each month and I doubt many investors could sustain too many quarters with a small or nil return and keep going before having to pull the plug.

    Time for a reality check, investing for the long term as Sim keeps saying, is all very well if you can keep your head above water in the interim, but no prudent investment strategy should lack an exit strategy and a stop loss level in place, even managed funds. Undoubtedly these two points were not ones discussed by many financial planners when setting their clients up - just invest for the long term! they get paid commissions and trailers do they not! for the length of your investment (read bias).

    Steve has had 20 years trading this system on his own account which is why most of us who know him and have invested with him, however my copies of presentations five years ago clearly show a 25-35% return, the beta testing discs provided to early clients also bore this kind of returnh out and should be achieveable in most markets, so I dont understand how the system can have been tweaked so such an extent that it is merely mirroring the Index! If we are at negative or neutral given this latest market pull back what happens if the market really tanks (as my financial adviser suggested "I hope the market does tank"). Sure there are good buying opportunities at lower prices, and even better ones at even lower prices, but they have to recover to where they were or better for you to get any kind of gain! As Steve's system does not actually short sell, I dont see how it can benefit on a down market only accumulate for a later rising market. If the market continues sideways it would not provide many trading opportunities, but it wont stay that way for ever.

    This is a unique fund in that most of us invested have known Steve over a number of years and investing based on our personal knowledge of the man and his returns, but investing in a fund run by CFS or Macquarie, i.e. faceless men, albeit talented we would not be that "personally" involved. Therefore our interest in the fund performance is perhaps heightened because of past associations! and I do not think it is unreasonable to take an active interest in one's investments especially where margin lending is concerned and query the funds performance on a regular basis.
     
  11. TryHard

    TryHard Well-Known Member

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    I totally agree we should all have an active interest in the fund, but I think you're drawing a long bow if you mean to imply Steve Navra ever said there would be 35% returns ? I can clearly remember him saying 'we work on 10% and anything else is a bonus'. I just think we should let the NI people do the micro management and perhaps not set off all the sirens 4 weeks before an intended distribution just because things have tracked sideways for a while ?

    Its great to be excited about potential returns, but I don't know if its reasonable for anyone to say the PDS they signed doesn't count, and the PDS does recommend a 5 year investment timeframe. That's one helluva lot of quarters, and if there are a couple of quarters without income you'd hope the FP's who have helped investors heavily gear into the fund have taken that into account.

    After all that, I'm confident there will be a distribution this quarter, there's still one-third of the trading days left yet ! Keep thinking those positive thoughts everyone ;)
     
  12. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Co-founder Staff Member

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    I don't think anyone was suggesting it was a gamble. You need to be very careful to differentiate between "gambling" and risk. Just because a fund doesn't produce income for ONE quarter, doesn't mean the investment has failed. And as I have repeatedly stated ... if your investment strategy means that you cannot cope with one quarter (90 days or so) without income from a single investment ... THEN YOU ARE DOING IT WRONG. You need some diversity and to learn to manage your debt and cashflow via the use of cash buffers.

    There were no promises of x% income each quarter ... there was a GOAL of 10%+ per year.

    Four consecutive quarters with no income would have me worried too ... but I don't think that would happen ... and I'm certainly not about to start losing sleep because 90 days of trading in a fickle market hasn't produced 5% returns that everyone has grown accustomed to. Either way - we're only 66% of the way through the quarter ... there's still plenty of time to generate that level of income, so we may all be surprised yet.

    Let's not project our own fears onto a fund that hasn't reported it's quarterly returns yet !! Perhaps we should wait until the end of quarter before we get concerned.

    Hangon ... I think it's actually quite dangerous to take a trading mentality (ie stop losses etc) to managed funds - especially those which are designed to take advantage of falling markets through their own trading mechanisms.

    Exit strategies are fine - but they should be approached differently to those a short term trader would put in place. Long term investment exit strategies are quite different in my opinion.

    If you realise your loss, you forgo any chance of the fund doing it's job to magnify returns for you in the future ... that's the whole point - it carefully chooses high quality stocks that are not likely to go out of business, and holds enough cash to take advantage of downturns in the market (the sharper the downturn the better). This is then realised as increased profits when the market recovers. By selling out early - all you do is crystalise your loss.

    If you want to trade shares, trade shares. If you want to invest in a fund which trades shares for you ... let it do its job.

    And I'll say it once again ... if you can't keep your head above water because of the short term performance of a single investment ... your strategy is all wrong.
     
  13. TryHard

    TryHard Well-Known Member

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    That might not be the harsh reality a lot of us want to hear Sim', but I reckon that's your best post ever. :D

    And I've said it before and will say it again, for a lot of us "Mum and Dad's" that NavraInvest exists to service, what we are experiencing now is a papercut - (and as Sim' pointed out a prematurely-diagnosed papercut for that matter). For people of my lack of time and knowledge, direct trading is by comparison to the papercut, like being disembowelled and wearing your entrails as a necktie :eek:
     
  14. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Unfortunately even the most conservative approach does NOT guarantee non stop income. If you do not consider "win some-lose some" scenario as reality (eg. lack of one quarter income) than investing in Stock Market may not be for you or you do not have sufficient buffer to deal with shortfalls.
    I can not comment on the NI stop loss or exit strategy. This question should be directed to NI team.
    Return of 25% is possible if you get volatile market with the wide trading range. Actually trading range is around 80-100 points which is good enough for daytraders but not for Managed Fund. Even sideway moving market may provide good results IF the trading range is reasonably wide (I would say at least 300 points).

    If you go back to 2000-2003 you may find that trading range at that time (I posted monthly chart some time ago) was approx. 800 points which I believe suits NI system very well.

    Short selling if implemented correctly, may provide good and quick return, but this technique is also quite costly and risky. Buying at certain levels when market drops or selling at certain levels when market is moving up is one of the few techniques used by pro and by NI.

    You said = “ but investing in a fund run by CFS or Macquarie, i.e. faceless men, albeit talented we would not be that "personally" involved.”.
    That is why NI Fund is so different, and your “personal involvement” may be too big ( IMHO). To some extent you are exposed to psychological game which you should not be part of.
    I am not sure what do you mean by “active interest in one’s investment“ if you can not fully control it……

    Once more, we have 4 weeks to go and a lot of things can happen in the meantime.;)
    :cool:
     
  15. pudsa

    pudsa Well-Known Member

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    Managed Funds

    Yep, I can appreciate concern's people have, none of us like the prospect of no income and our investment going backwards via falling unit prices. However its a fact of life that nothing goes up (in finance at least) all of the time. There will be market corrections which affect managed funds such as NI just as much as the Warren Buffets of this world. Just gotta have faith in the system and I'm with Sim and tryhard there is still 33% of the period to go and thats a lotta ups n downs on the share market.
    Cheers :)
     
  16. Here_To_Learn

    Here_To_Learn Well-Known Member

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    Wow ! Been away from PC for a day and so many posts on this thread. All of course positive.

    I was simply asking if anyone had thought about the fact that there may not be a dividend payment this quarter. I didn't say there wouldn't be one.

    In the last 18mths I have not seen performance for a quarter in negative as it is shown on the navrainvest site. This prompted me to ask the question.

    I agree that NI is a long term investment. In fact Steve and his team tell me to look at the fund over a min period of 5 years ! :cool:
     
  17. johnnyb

    johnnyb Well-Known Member

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    Regarding the idea that investing should be done with a long term view , if you look at the Navra Aus Retail fund performance chart since inception (on the NI website) you will see that the sideways movement in the fund in the last month or two is nothing out of the ordinary.

    There is a similar flat period for a couple of months from about Nov 03 to Feb 04, as well as a big dip in Q2 05 (did we get a reasonable distribution for that quarter, I can't remember), and a couple of other smaller dips here and there.

    So the current performance of the fund is par for the course as far as I'm concerned, especially given the performance of the wider market in general. IMHO the real measure of performance for the fund is illustrated perfectly in the chart - 60% "growth" over 3 years. Can't complain too much about that.

    John.
     
  18. Tom&Don

    Tom&Don Active Member

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    Again, a problem I see with the NI fund is that when the inevitable big dip comes along, people will get spooked and take $$ out. Thats just what people do. It takes great discipline not to ... and from what I have read even great traders have lapses in discipline.

    This will therefore potentially hamstring the system to a degree - there wont be as many available $$ to buy the dips like SN would love to do.

    Its all well and good to buy when others are selling, but if theres no $$ to buy with that doesnt help much.

    The difference with the NI fund vs dollar cost trading for yourself is that if you have the discipline to follow the plan, and buy the dips, then you could reasonably expect to achieve the systems' expectancy.

    I also would love to know how many institutions have bought into the wholesale fund - and what their likely reaction will be when the market gets thumped. It may not even come down to mums & dads - no matter how clued up they are.

    Anyway, its all speculation, and time will tell.

    My personal position is to increase my % cash (which includes gold) and if the market takes a hit, put on my floaties and dive in.

    T.
     
  19. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Tom&Don,

    There is nothing wrong with assumptions as long as we know that we only assume (very dangerous word), but if the market corrects itself (we can not exclude this possibility), it will be too late for most of the participants to take money out of the market. Most of the time correction is taking investors by "surprise" (with some exceptions). If this happens and market moves down say 400+ points in a week, what is a point to take money out of the market?

    As you said = "Anyway, its all speculation, and time will tell".
    :p
     
  20. Leandro

    Leandro Well-Known Member

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    Hello All,

    I am not sure that i understand how the whole 5 year statement for an income fund is supposed to be interpreted. I of course understand why it is there.

    Is it supposed to mean; that if you invest for a 5 year period, you are more likely to be infront after 5 years than when you started if you add up all the distributions?

    Maybe its a silly question, but it's easier to understand the 5 year statement on something like a house or one particular share, where you are told hold it for 5 years and it will be worth more in 5 years time. This definition becomes a bit fuzzy on an income fund though as it is supposed to be giving you "income"