Managed Funds 1st Quarter Distribuition

Discussion in 'Shares & Funds' started by hillsguy, 29th Aug, 2006.

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  1. johnnyb

    johnnyb Well-Known Member

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    I think of it in terms of reinvesting my distributions each quarter. If this is done then your total holdings will increase. Asssuming the unit price reverts to close to $1 at the start of each quarter then the growth in the number of units is how I would measure the performance of the fund over a long time frame.

    Of course, if you're not reinvesting the distributions then it you won't be able to measure this for your own investment.

    John.
     
  2. gad

    gad Well-Known Member

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    IMHO
    It's an income fund set up for Mum & dad investors.
    The unit price is still well above the original price.
    IMHO the fund (Aussie) could still pay an app. 2.5% distribution this quarter.
    If the unit price drops a couple of cents because of it, so what, the investors are still getting their distributions & the fund has still achieved some capital growth (above the original price).
    When the fund is performing better they can/will keep a little more to catch up on that cap. growth but the unit holders will still get their distributions.
    As for those of us that re-invest the distributions, the distribution itself will make no difference to the value of our holdings what so ever.
    We are getting back to near early quarter values & with another month to go before the end of the quarter the fund may well be in a position to pay that
    2.5% distribution without having to reduce the CG component by much at all.
    Time will tell.
    That's the way it goes, no need to panic (though I do admit to some sickening stomach feelings at times myself around early August :),
    gotta stop this constant monitoring, it's killing me :) )
     
  3. Glebe

    Glebe Well-Known Member

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    I'm wondering how leveraged/committed some of you guys are, that are sweating on every distribution percentage point? It's seems a little concerning...
     
  4. gad

    gad Well-Known Member

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    Glebe

    With Investment loans & capitalized interest on the margin loan, I'm paying app. $200 per day in interest.

    Hence this earlier comment :eek:

     
  5. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    I'm approaching $500 a day in interest costs ... and by the end of next year, I anticipate this will be closer to $1000 a day.

    Managing that is all about minimising cashflow risks, and ensuring a sufficient cash buffer is available to deal with short term cashflow shortages.

    Regardless of your financial position, if you lose the SANF (sleep at night factor), then you need to rethink your portfolio and your strategy. No point in being a rich nervous wreck.
     
  6. TechMan

    TechMan Well-Known Member

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    Thats impressive! Funny how i am striving to owe enough money one day to have to pay such an interest bill :eek:
     
  7. gad

    gad Well-Known Member

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    He He, Would be better than being a poor nervous wreck. :D
     
  8. Glebe

    Glebe Well-Known Member

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    Back of an envelope calcs tells that'd be about $5 million debt! :)
     
  9. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    I'll let you in on a little secret ...

    ... it's easier if you don't have to pay for it ... at least, not out of your own pocket :cool:

    That's the nice thing about a trust ... you can (to a certain degree), treat it like a "black box" ... the only thing that really matters at the end of the day, is how much cash comes out of it.

    I guess it also matters how reliable that cashflow is ... but that's what buffers are for ... smoothing out the dips.
     
  10. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    I think your interest rates are a little low there ... try 9-10%

    $1000 per day = $365,000pa @ 10% interest = $3.65m debt
     
  11. gad

    gad Well-Known Member

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    G'day Sim,
    I know it's none of my business so treat this that way, just curious....
    From the first quoted statement above, are you expecting your leveraged assets to at least double at the same time or are you anticipateing the assets will grow enough in that time to assume your borrowings will be at that level at that time?
    Hope that makes some sense, I've had a few ;) (Helps with the nervous wreck scenario)

    From second quote above, app. 3.65m debt..... assets worth ?

    10% Interest also seems pretty high but I'm assuming you may mean that that's what you think you will be paying towards the end of next year when you may be paying app. $1000 per day interest, would that be right?

    Just curious. Thanks.
     
  12. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    Nothing quite that great ... I have a lot of untapped equity in my property portfolio, and I am currently in the process of refinancing and extracting that equity ... which will be further leveraged using margin loans. I was also counting in the possible purchase of a PPOR in Sydney by that time, which would add a lot to the overall debt. I say "possible" purchase, because it does rely on getting some more good growth this year ... which may not happen, thus delaying further purchases.


    Dunno ... depends on how much growth I get this year. Real estate generally leveraged to 90% max, funds to less than 60% ... there's a good mix of both in that figure, so the overall LVR will be somewhere around 80% I imagine.

    I generally do my calculations based on the long term average for interest rates, which I believe is somewhere around 10%. I'm hoping we won't get there ... but margin loan rates are already approaching 9% - so it could happen ... especially if we get a wages blow-out due to continuing skills shortages and the resources boom, plus increasing costs due to high oil prices.

    If I can't cover at least 10% interest rates with my portfolio, then I'm too highly leveraged with poorly performing assets - a dangerous mix.
     
  13. gad

    gad Well-Known Member

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    Thanks Sim

    A very comprehensive reply, for which I am grateful. Thanks again.
     
  14. Nigel Ward

    Nigel Ward Well-Known Member

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    There was an article yesterday on page 35 of the Finanical Review by Corrine Lim which is very relevant to any discussion of the NavraInvest dollar cost trading methodology.

    The article discusses the fact that both global and local sharemarkets have since 03 until the early part of this year experienced volatility well below the long term average.

    Looking at the graphs they suggest that the daily percent change in the month over that period has been around or below 0.4% whereas the long term average is around 0.6%. June was 1.1%, but july and august are back around the long term average.

    For a system that trades volatility, I think those are very significant figures to bear in mind. he article suggests a flare up in volatility is more likely than continued docility...food for thought.

    Cheers
    N
     
  15. Smartypants

    Smartypants Well-Known Member

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    So good times ahead for the fund...we hope :)
     
  16. BSB

    BSB Active Member

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    Perhaps slightly off-topic...but has anyone else noticed that the 'Performance Fee' figure seems to have disappeared from the Performance Table on the NavraInvest website? Perhaps the constant zero numbers was proving too unsettling for the shareholders?
     
  17. TryHard

    TryHard Well-Known Member

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    As the performance fee is now charged based on quarterly results (http://www.navrainvest.com.au/index.asp?content=fee), I doubt its meant to hide past nil charges. There's plenty better ways for NavraInvest to communicate with shareholders than by 'selective publication' on its retail website.

    If you're a unitholder or shareholder and are concerned there's something crucial missing, I'm sure you'll find emailing [email protected] will get a good result :)

    Cheers
    Carl

    PS. I'm a shareholder, and I'm not concerned about the previous lack of annual performance fee at all ... the investment suits the criteria under which I judged it and it would take some convincing to make me believe Navra Invest won't continue growing from this point. When we invested some people said NI would never get $50M FUM, so they were wrong 3 times over :D
     
  18. jenpalex

    jenpalex Active Member

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    I have sometimes wondered if the Fund could take advantage of low volatility by selling options on the funds, at the prices and quanties that the trading algorithm would buy/sell any way. This is not my idea. One of the traders in one of the 'Market Wizards' books (the Black guy fom New York as I recall, if it isn't politically incorrect to say so) uses it .
     
  19. Nigel Ward

    Nigel Ward Well-Known Member

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    Hi Jen

    Whilst I can't speak for NavraInvest, I suspect Steve's response would be "well we could but that's risky and involves gearing". He's actually very conservative when it comes to trading shares with "Mum's and Dad's" money. ;)

    Cheers
    N.
     
  20. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    It also goes against the ethos of the fund investment strategy - don't try and predict the market. Selling an option implies that someone is making a prediction about price movements. The trading system is reactionary - it makes decisions based on what is happening in the market now, not what it believes will happen in the future.