Managed Funds 1st Quarter Distribuition

Discussion in 'Shares & Funds' started by hillsguy, 29th Aug, 2006.

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  1. Tim__

    Tim__ Well-Known Member

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    Sim,

    by the same token the CFS property fund has increased nearly 10% in the last quarter (refer Commsec), so it is all a bit meaningless to compare as there will always be funds that under and over peform in any given period.

    However I do think it would be reasonable for NI to undertake some sort of explanation as to the difference this quarter in return compared to previous quarters as the difference is sizable and information explaining the situation may help. Many funds do this on a quarterly or yearly basis so it could be a good idea.

    Tim
     
  2. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    Actually - it's only a good measure when you consider it between two fixed points, ideally the start and end of quarter - or even more accurately between start and end of financial year. In between, the unit price includes accumulated trading profits and other income, which are then distributed at the end of the quarter (and fully at the end of year). The drop in unit price at the end of quarter can really confuse people as to the true performance of the fund - especially if they aren't taking distributions into account.

    Try graphing unit price and you'll see how useless this is as a performance measure on it's own between arbitrary points in time.

    I have no idea what the "VAMI accounting measure" is, but my understanding is that you are correct - the unit price should represent the total value of the assets currently held (including cash holdings), which will include yet-to-be-distributed profits prior to end-of-quarter.

    No, you are right - there is a very real and tangible way of measuring total fund value - so that is not at question.

    My point is that the GROWTH in value is intangible until realised. You can't eat capital growth !!!

    The only way of accessing that capital growth is by borrowing against the equity through some mechanisms like a margin loan. This makes that growth SEEM more tangible - however it is not. The value of the underlying assets could drop and that capital growth could quite easily be eroded away to below what you paid for it. At this point, the margin lenders call you and ask for their money back. It is for this reason that I call it intangible. The only reason margin lending works is that you can make a basic assumption that the value will increase over time, and you have sufficient buffers in place to manage the exposure when they don't.

    Vehemently agreeing probably :D

    Mostly I think it's a disagreement about terminology - which I think is important because using the wrong terminology gives people the wrong impression about what's really happening with their investments.

    Yes I understand completely, and I think I have illustrated that in many of my previous examples (you may not have read all those threads).

    I just wanted to make it perfectly clear to people that there are two variables that impact on the movements in unit price. The first is the value of the underlying shares, which move as their share prices change, the second is the trading profits and other income that the fund accumulates over time.

    It is ONLY this second variable which determines how far the unit price drops at end of quarter (ex distribution). And the first variable is ONLY affected by the value of the shares the fund holds at any given time. Of course, there are other minor variables such as expenses and franking credits and tax like you mentioned - but that mostly generally gets soaked up by the other income (franking credits and such just confuse things :rolleyes: ).

    The daily unit price is CALCULATED from the value of the assets the fund holds (and based on the number of units on offer), but the CHANGES in unit price are INFLUENCED by both the changes in value of the shares and by the trading profits and other income sources.

    Why should it only be the unit price ?

    If my only concern was unit price, then an average buy price of 1.1091 and a current unit price of 1.0857 should make me upset, but somehow the $100K+ in income I have received over that time makes me smile ?

    Or perhaps you meant something else by the comment on the unit price focus ? (please discuss).

    Of course it does. It grows on trees, in fields, in computers, in bread, in sweat and hard work, in lots of places. I give money to people, they use it to do things which make them money, they give me income in return. That's how investing fundamentally works!

    At the end of the day, I think you'll find that the vast majority of people invest for the distributions. Only a very small percentage invest in funds for capital growth, and even fewer still leverage for this purpose. (I count myself in this group - although I use the Navra funds for a different purpose).

    Of course. Unit value goes up as a result of an increase in the value of the assets the fund holds - which is made up of the value of the shares being held plus any cash, plus sundries. Not all the income comes from CG, but most of it does, through the fund realising profits as a result of that underlying growth.

    I don't think anyone disputes that ... so I'm not sure what your analogy was designed to present ?
     
  3. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    Yes, I have felt myself tending that way at times, so it is worth keeping things real - you're good like that :D

    I like the use of real figures and percentages to compare with other funds over similar time period to determine whether things are on track or not.

    For the record, I agree completely ... definitely sub-par, and I would like to see an improvement.

    ... and I'm a pedant who really hates the English language's ability to be so imprecise :p

    As an educator, I find that getting people talking the same language really helps to prevent misunderstandings. The problem is that we need to agree on what that language is first :rolleyes:
     
  4. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    You really should only compare funds that invest in the same market (ie for the Navra AUS funds, that would be the ASX, and preferably the ASX200).

    My comments about the CFS Global Resources fund were not a comparison with the Navra funds, more an example of what I would consider to be BAD performance.

    NavraInvest usually do a quarterly update (usually sent with the distribution statement), and also have some information posted on their site, but it looks like that's a bit out of date.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 9th Oct, 2006
  5. Andrew Allen

    Andrew Allen Well-Known Member Business Member

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    Unit price should be plotted and considered as dividend adjusted, this is how I always did it when I tracked it. It's a pure and accurate measure of your investment return.

    I have a method for accessing capital growth.

    A very simplistic though hopefully accurate example:

    FUM: $1000
    Total units: 1000
    Unit Val: $1.00
    Investor holds: 100 units (10% of FUM)
    Fund returns 100% in a quarter immediately after a distribution.
    Buy/Sell spread ignored (50% of the spread is the frictional cost in part 2)
    Units sold are matched by another investor buying the same amount of units... If not then the results will be very slightly different.

    Scenario 1: Fund pays 10% Distribution

    * Investor receives 100 x $0.10 = $10 (Tax office cheers)
    * FUM drops to $900. Unit price: 0.90
    * Fund grows 100% in a quarter (yay) FUM now = $1800. Unit price = 1.80
    * Investor net worth = (100 x 1.80) + $10 =$190

    Scenario 2: Fund pays no distribution. Investor compensates by selling units.

    * Investor sells 10 units $1.00 = $10 (Tax office still cheers)
    * Investor has 90 units left.
    * FUM still $1000: Unit price 1.00
    * Fund grows 100% in a quarter (yay) FUM now = $2000. Unit price = 2.00
    * Investor net worth = (90 x 2.00) + $10 = $190

    So not identical results in the real world but similar and easy to implement.

    Ok I think we are indeed agreeing vehemently :)

    I used the analogy because I'm confused when I read about 'trading profits' being seperate somehow, though I could just be misunderstanding that point. At any one time all trading profits (and losses) are reflected in the value of your holdings. For my mind it's just simpler to talk about profit and loss, which is reflected 100% in the unit price at all times. This is mandated by the accounting regulations required for funds I believe.

    VAMI is what I use for my personal trading results, which I publish on my blog. I understand it's the most widely used method for unit funds.
     
  6. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    I would be interested to hear how you adjust for distributions. I've seen how funds report their returns adjusting for distributions - but they tend to use the value of $X (usually $10,000) invested at the beginning of the period being considered - but I'd like to see how you adjust the unit price itself.

    Wouldn't the unit price start to lose its meaning when adjusted like this ? Unless you plotted backwards I guess so that today's unit price equals the real unit price, and previous distribution unit prices are adjusted downwards to compensate for distributions ? I'd have to think through the math there.

    Aren't you simply realising your returns by selling ? Which is exactly what I mentioned about growth being intangible ? You have to sell to realise it. Or is that not what you are illustrating here ?


    But wouldn't the FUM drop by $10 due to the investor selling ? Not that it makes much different to the final result - but it still is a difference.

    But what IS "profit" ? That's one of the points I make ... profit comes in a variety of forms, whether it is unrealised capital gain, whether it is income from dividends, or from trading profits or other activities, or whether it is distribution in hand to the unit fund investor, or what ? I think we need to have clear terminology to help people understand exactly what is being discussed. Is it my profit or the fund's profit ? And what does profit actually mean to me in real terms ? Is it something I can use to pay the bills, or is it on paper only ?

    Ahh ... that sounds suspiciously like what I've been doing in my charting of fund performance to do my analysis as discussed in another thread. I just didn't know it had a name. I had noted that most fund managers use this technique to show results including distributions.

    I hadn't considered it for use in tracking my actual portfolio returns ... I prefer to use real numbers (because I can), but I guess for comparing apples-with-apples and for other people to compare their own results, I guess this VAMI method would be a good way to do it. I'll look into adding that to my measures (that spreadsheet just got even more complicated !! :eek: )
     
  7. Alan__

    Alan__ Well-Known Member

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    Hi Michael.

    I assume your 'cost of capital' is the interest charge. How do you manage to achieve 7.1? I'm jealous. :p

    I currently pay about 7.4% on my LOCs and about 8.4% on my Margin Loan or about an average 7.9%. 7.1% sounds much better! :D

    On a second point, I'd also be interested to hear what yourself and others consider to be an acceptable 'risk premium' for their investment.

    Using the NavraInvest Funds as an example, and keeping things simple, if we assume no growth, an average 10% income return and an average interest cost of 8% then basically we hop on board with an expectation of achieving at least a 2% income after costs but the risk that the Unit Price could go anywhere.

    Now I know we can say things like minimum 5 year investment timeframes and that we may do this for decades etc yada yada yada, but life being what it is, we may well find we need a large part of the money in 1, 2 or 3 years when selling could well incur losses. Maybe there will be no loss, maybe there will be a large profit, maybe there will be a large loss. That is part of the risk we take.

    How willing many are to take that risk is probably influenced by the size of the difference between ongoing Distributions and Interest Costs.

    I guess my question is, what size average difference between income and cost would make the associated risk acceptable to you? Is >2% ok for most or do you use something much higher?
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 10th Oct, 2006
  8. MichaelW

    MichaelW Well-Known Member

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    Sim,

    A bit like this perhaps... (See attached chart) I just add back the distributions to track the nominal unit price over time and I plot this relative the ASX200. I give Navra a break and don't plot it relative the ASX200 Accumulation Index although I personally consider that a more accurate benchmark.

    Insight's points are spot on. The unit price tells you everything you need to know about the fund's performance. The only trick is to ensure you add back the amount of the unit price paid out in distributions so that you get the "undistributed" cumulative unit price through time.

    Interestingly, I bought in on 14/10/2005 so am about to see my one year Navra anniversary. As of yesterday, my unit price growth over that period is 14.28% (once distributions are added back). So, I'm very happy with my one year performance at roughly double my cost of capital. Sure, buying an index tracker would have performed better over the period, but I've got high hopes of Navra when the market isn't so bullish. I'll take an "almost kept up with the index" performance in a bull market if the same product can deliver me a "protected my capital" result in a bear market. Time will tell...

    Cheers,
    Michael.
     

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  9. MichaelW

    MichaelW Well-Known Member

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    Alan,

    Yeah, 7.1% is supposed to be my weighted interest cost. Unfortunately a couple of rate rises have now shifted that result and I haven't updated the current cost. It should now be:

    WBC LOC $310K @ 7.0%
    LE Margin $260K @ 8.3%

    Takes my weighted interest cost to 7.6% (which intuitively makes sense anyway as we've gone up 0.5% since I first invested)... :(

    Cheers,
    Michael.
     
  10. Cheeks

    Cheeks Member

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    This is my first distribution that I will be taking as cash and not reinvesting, what date are payments normally made?

    I tried to call Navra to ask but the phone just cuts out after a recorded message :(
     
  11. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    Usually about the 14th - so I'd expect it Monday or Tuesday.
     
  12. TryHard

    TryHard Well-Known Member

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    Hi Cheeks

    I assume you mean you got the after hours recorded message ? Might be the time difference with the west coast ?

    The last distribution we received was 14 July (14 days after end of quarter). So I guess that's a reasonable yardstick.

    Hopefully if you email [email protected] or call them during business hours Sydney time they'll give you a more accurate answer

    Cheers
    Carl

    PS oops sorry Sim beat me to it - damn 2 finger typing and unweildy sentences :p
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 13th Oct, 2006
  13. Cheeks

    Cheeks Member

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    Thanks Sim and TryHard.
     
  14. Bob__

    Bob__ Well-Known Member

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    distributions

    The distributions are being deposited PM Monday 16th


    Bob
     
  15. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    Thanks Bob.