5000

Tropo,

OK, what's next on the upside tech-chart then? Today we just blew past that upside figure of 5079 for the XJO and closed at 5088.1 The index put on almost a full percent in trading today. So do your charts tell you we'll get some resistance at around this level?

My simple charting methodology tells me the next peak is likely to happen in about a months time and at around 5200. The last couple of little runs each put on about 6%, then it comes off about 2% then kicks up another 6% and so on. Has done this a few times in the last 12 months. If it goes from 4900-odd as the previous peak, then 5200 looks like the next peak before a pull back. Hopefully I'll have my Navra distribution in hand by then and sell down my holdings mid-April before the pull back when we're sitting around the 5200 mark. I'll be diversifying into Asia/Japan and the US so won't feel the pull back effect across my whole portfolio once diversified.

Makes that full year 5250 view for the ASX look very achievable and 6000 for some time in 2007 still on the cards. I personally wouldn't be too surprised if we saw 6000 this year, but that would take a hell of a bull run. We've got the Ides of October yet to come so will probably finish mid-5's. If we put on 6% and lose 2% every 2-3 months, then that's a net 4% and it will take us 6-9 months to get to 6000. We're in April now so that's achievable this year...

But hey, I am NOT a chartist, and don't project forward that bullishly. I'm just running some numbers for you. I'll take it as I see it and be diversifying in April.

Cheers,
Michael.

 

Michael,

We have got 4 trading days left in this quarter so the big guys are ready to close their books
Yep.....Market is over done today a bit = blew my level (5079) by 9 points.
My next numbers on the up side = 5102/6 and 5174 (longer term = approx.May/June).
If we hit 5102/6 I'll re calculate down side and up side as well.
Use 4937/32 as a guide for now.

Do not forget that what goes up must go down...so good luck to you with your Asia/Jap/US venture!!
I would not calculate market levels the way you are doing this, but if you are happy with it - fine with me.
With the full respect to 6000 number, if we hit this number this year I will owe you a bottle of C2H5OH!!. How about that ??
Stay

 

Intra-day just traded past 5100, can't see the exact number it hit. Its moving a bit quick now and all in one direction. I'm thinking some pull-back is in order soon on the back of some profit taking. Hopefully, its decent enough to wait until AFTER my March distribution is paid and I diversify, but I don't think I'll be that lucky.

Cheers,
Michal.

 

Was 5103.3 (high so far)
Market can not climb in one direction forever.
Sooner or later will pull back (may/may not around 5144/5174)
So far - so good, and 3 days to go


PS:
Latest Commitment of Traders, March 21 based on e-mini S&P contract.

Large speculators - 19% long 24% short
Small Speculators - 34% long 12% short
Industry Hedgers - 47% long 64% short
TOTAL 100% long 100% short
Interesting is it

 

O.K. Michael,
Short term levels.
On the up side = 5144/50/65/79
On the down side = 5050& 5005/3& 4974/70& 4944/39
Enjoy

 

So its fair value then...