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a self fulfilling prophecy perhaps?

Discussion in 'Investing Strategies' started by Nigel Ward, 11th Jul, 2006.

  1. Nigel Ward

    Nigel Ward Team InvestEd

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    From an article on news.com.au http://finance.news.com.au/story/0,10166,19753301-462,00.html

    Does this mean 07-08FY is the year of property? :D ;) :confused:
     
  2. MrDarcy

    MrDarcy Well-Known Member

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    I think that's the sound of the herd starting to move. The question I ask myself is not should I follow them, as there is little choice for now, but for how long do I follow ?

    Hmmm, very deep thoughts for 5pm.
     
  3. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Co-founder Staff Member

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    That is indeed the crux of the issue.

    I suggest the tried-and-tested methodology of listening to cabbies. When they start talking up the stock market - it's time to get out!

    Unless there are cabbies here - that would be like insider trading and would warp the results of our system :eek: :D

    (PS. all cabbies are more than welcome at InvestEd :D )
     
  4. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Is below info of any help :eek:

    INTERVIEW: BOJ To Raise Call Rate To 0.25% - Ex-BOJ Taya
    The Bank of Japan will likely end its zero-interest-rate policy by lifting rates this week, and might hike rates further in a few months because of continued firm domestic demand, a former BOJ policy board member said Tuesday. "Uncertainty over the U.S. economy is increasing, but there aren't any signs that domestic demand will worsen, and there is no risk that the U.S. economy will fall into a recession. Thus, the central bank will lift the key call rate to 0.25% this week," Taya also said that the BOJ will likely leave the amount of government bonds it buys each month unchanged at Y1.2 trillion. The government is opposed to the BOJ reducing its monthly outright JGB buying amount because that could push up long-term interest rates and eventually increase the government's financial burden. Taya said the BOJ won't decrease its JGB buying anytime soon because some of the bonds it holds now will mature, keeping the outstanding balance of its JGB holdings below its ceiling. When the BOJ started to increase the JGB buying in March 2001, the bank set its own rule that the balance of JGBs held by the Bank won't exceed the balance of banknotessaid Teizo Taya in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires.
    :eek:
     
  5. Dr Lobster

    Dr Lobster Well-Known Member

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    There is an article in this month's Your Trading Edge that suggests that a correction is close ie only a matter of months.

    I think if i looked through the press i could find a number of people with a view that it will run for a while or that its over cooked now and a correction is imminent.

    I'm currently reading a book regarding trading and how one can make a profitable living from trading, at the same time I'm reading a book that blatantantly calls all chartists charlatons and that trading is purely guess work and profiting from such is more luck than anything else.

    I've read research that states that shares out perform property and vice versa, literature that states that long term positions in the share market are based on an illogical assumption that "she'll be right mate, and another view that long term is the only way to go.

    To say that I am currently confused is an understatement. To be honest I'm growing tired of this thinking without getting closer to a solution and I'm starting to think the live/spend for the now attitude is just a whole lot easier (well not really but I am a bit frustrated).
     
  6. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Co-founder Staff Member

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    Dr Lobster - what you are experiencing is commonly referred to as "analysis paralysis". It's a growth suppressing disease that is commonly contracted by new investors, and prevents them from moving forward.

    Unfortunately there is no medical cure for this - only therapy can help.

    Our team of investment therapists here at InvestEd are here to help :D

    (I'm actually a recovered analysis paralysis sufferer myself - so I can fully empathise with your feelings).
     
  7. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    The problem is that we live in times which produce TOO many "experts" or "gurus". They try to predict what market may do tomorrow or when property market will collapse.
    No matter what you read always apply your own logic, knowledge and common sense.
    As long as you do not develop your own way of thinking, everyday life may be very frustrating indeed.

    Try to be very selective in case what you are reading.
    Remember that every "hack writer" represent his own (subjective) opinion.
    If you willing to read books about trading make sure that author is a pro trader who is making living out of trading.
    Big names not necessarily represent "value for money" and what is even worse, to follow some of their ideas may be a wealth hazard.

    The first thing to establish is what do YOU want to do. Trade for income or invest for a growth.
    Whether you trade for income or growth it does not matter if you buy into someone else's fund or use a technical or fundamental analysis to do it yourself.
    Both technical and fundamental analysis have good and bad sides (I prefer technical).
    Both can be used to trade for income and growth. None is perfect.
    It is only your personal preference which one you use.
    :cool:
     
  8. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    "I'm actually a recovered analysis paralysis sufferer myself..."

    Sim,

    That is what happen if you think too much :p ;)
     
  9. Dr Lobster

    Dr Lobster Well-Known Member

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    What I want from trading is to generate an income. I believe that I have my bases covered from a long term growth aspect (for now, I'm soon to be pretty maxed out in that regard), now I want to supplement my employer generated income.

    I also would like to have a system that has been tested and fine tuned by myself to the point that I can teach my wife how to run it. This would solve an issue for us in the future - my wife is not currently employed as she is too busy looking after three kids under the age of five. Operating a trading system will provide income with flexibility. It will probably take me two to three years to learn, develop, test and fine tune a system and get it to the point where I will be comfortable handing it over. By that time two of the kids will be at school and one at pre-school, operating a trading system from home will provide the flexibility of generating an income but still being there for the kids ( I believe the kids should know at least one of their parents, I'm unfortunately one of those ppl that are away from home min 60hrs a week for work).

    Of course I envisage using the income to acquiring futher growth assets.

    My overall goal is to be able to get out in 11 years, 4months and 8 days :D

    I have a goal, and a plan, all I need to do is maintain my focus and desire.
     
  10. Dr Lobster

    Dr Lobster Well-Known Member

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    Oh, I'm using Guppy's books at the moment, and I have one to read by Allan Hull.

    If these guys fall into the self proclaimed guru status please wise me up.
     
  11. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Co-founder Staff Member

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    Okay ... looks like my analysis paralysis comment was a bit unfair (although I was mostly just trying to be funny) ... in my experience, people who suffer from analysis paralysis don't have a goal or a plan ... you're way ahead than most there!

    I'll leave it up to our more experienced members in this area to comment on trading strategies - not my area of expertise.
     
  12. Dr Lobster

    Dr Lobster Well-Known Member

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    I saw the humour in your post and while analysis paralysis may not be exactly the right term I don't think its far off.

    And analysis paralysis is something I have definitely suffered from in the past, I've been too close to numbers for too long.
     
  13. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    You have got a very good plan.
    That is how I started long time ago
    :p

    "Oh, I'm using Guppy's books at the moment, and I have one to read by Allan Hull.
    If these guys fall into the self proclaimed guru status please wise me up".


    In trading ... gurus do not exist !!!.
    Do not forget that even outstanding traders are only human, so they make mistakes from time to time.

    Guppy is a very good private pro trader (technical) and his books contain a lot of information (sometimes too much).
    Hull is a pro private "active investor" (as he describes himself) who combines fundamentals with technical analysis.
    He chooses stock to trade using fundamentals and is trading it using technical analysis.
    If you follow Guppy's advice you need more time to develop your system as he gives you instructions how to do it.
    On the other hand if you follow Hull there is not much to do as he gives you ready system (long term!) which requires less time to manage.

    If you are serious about trading/investing on your own, why don't you consider one or two seminars run by pro and cut considerably your learning curve...
    Having family and working 60h /week, you do not have much time to learn (by reading books) how to trade.
    Seminars are not cheap, but as you know knowledge come with the cost.
    :cool:
     
  14. Dr Lobster

    Dr Lobster Well-Known Member

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    Thanks Tropo.

    I was considering a seminar or course of some sort. I'm more of an independent learner, ie I'm quite happy to have the materials at home and learn that way with a support line if I need it. I completed my degree part time this way and my professional qualification so its something I'm comfortable with. I was looking at Nick Radge's course in particular.

    Trading is something very new to me. And in terms of the knowledge required to do it consistiently well it seems like an elephant ie very large.

    And how do you eat an elephant ? One bite at a time.
     
  15. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    "Trading is something very new to me. And in terms of the knowledge required to do it consistiently well it seems like an elephant ie very large.

    And how do you eat an elephant ? One bite at a time.[/QUOTE]"


    Hahahahaaaa. Good one !!.
    I know this feeling because I am still eating an elephant...:rolleyes:

    Yep ... Nick is very good.
    Also ... I would consider below address.
    http://www.tradinggame.com.au/seminars/evntfrm.asp?d=7/29/2006&pID=5&l=VIC
    G.L to you !!.
    :p
     
  16. Qaz

    Qaz Active Member

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    Trading obvious works well for some people and not so well for others. Just as long term investing works well for some and not others.

    Quite simply there are no right or wrong answers and its a merely a case of what works for you.

    I suggest doing some paper trading or trading with very small quantities of money to work out for yourself whether its right for you, because books won't tell you that.
     
  17. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    " ..... because books won't tell you that. ".

    Spot on .
    :p
     
  18. Jen

    Jen Member

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    Dr Lobster, I'm trying to learn how to trade at the moment and also feel frustrated for a few reasons (not moving ahead quick enough, confused about some issues etc). I know how you feel but I remember feeling the same way when I first started learning about property. I just have to keep chipping away and eventually it will come together. I too have given myself a 2-3 year time span to feel "comfortable".
    It seems to me that as a newbie trader, the markets are perhaps too volatile right now and maybe sitting on the sidelines a bit longer (unless a trade begs entering!) would be beneficial?
    What do more experienced traders think?
     
  19. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    "It seems to me that as a newbie trader, the markets are perhaps too volatile right now and maybe sitting on the sidelines a bit longer (unless a trade begs entering!) would be beneficial?"

    Jenny,

    Few rules to remember.....

    Rule 21 = You must have a program, you must know your program, and you must follow your program.
    Rule 38 = You must belive in yourself and your judgment if you expect to make a living at this game.
    Rule 43 = Standing aside is a position !!.
    Rule 45 = If you don't know who you are, the markets are an expensive place to find out.
    Rule 46 = In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future.
    Mark that word...NOBODY !!.
    Thus the successful trader does not base moves on what supposedly will happen but react instead to what does happen.
    :cool:
     
  20. Nigel Ward

    Nigel Ward Team InvestEd

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    Love the rules. How about sharing some more of them?