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Trading A sibling of XAO: Spanish IBEX

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 20th Mar, 2012.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    It seems no Aussies disagree that Australia economies are very successful at least since the global financial crisis. Against the economic success, XAO just turns itself to be a few of siblings of Spanish Stock market house in last one or two years.

    There are a lot of guesses why XAO performed so bad. When you heard the news you could find the clues why XAO acted irrationally as a whole. It seems the local politics, natural disasters, and insurance in future, have disturbed everyone in XAO and then XAO walked with IBEX hand by hand. Was, is, will be Australia economies bad as that in span?

    ***
    It seemed the crowd just waits for the last judgment with the hope that everything would be worse: house market crashing, debt default, mountain of iron ores besides the huge hole, tipped off China economies, and US crash again. Could be XAO right? Possible but is it probable?

    At least no too many have hopes on Australia except those diehard in XAO. Just see the lines and patterns in the last two years! It is hopeless and then all of guess works become popular in Australia medias and market forums.

    However I just could not convince myself that Australia has the troubled economies as Span has! I don't buy this call even XAO could continue its downward trend after its rushing into the imaginary GFC II and flatting out!

    ***
    I do need focus on building my last defensive lines and updating my mental framework. What I believe that the crowd would be the participant of the grand party and I should be sure I have a mind to get out before the music suddenly stops in next booming time.

    Are you sure we would have another booming? It is a ocean where we will see a lot of tops and valleys. No genuine explorers would stop his exploration since his ship is in a valley now. What he needs to do is he could be survival in this valley and better find a smoothy port to wait for the days come in for his favor!

    If you could sustain in the tsunami, you would have chances to get better and better. Of course you need a brave gut and would like to put your efforts for this better life.

    [​IMG]

    ***
    I never listen ABC radio or any English radios widely as what I do now.

    After listening ABC from early morning to late night for about one week as my storm-type learning method, I do feel the medias or news about the stock market are very insane.

    Nearly all of the words about the market are based on the premises based on simple guess work or what consequences shown in the market. It is not wrong but it is because the news needs to be sensational and shocking effects. There are needs psychologically and physically for what happen.

    The problems are that nearly all of us get used to trust what the news say. It is terrible to the market players who do need the disciplines, analysis, and understanding of the possible scenarios of his buying and holding.

    ***
    Against the news about stock market, I do enjoy the sanity and logic of the reports about the raining, storms, and natural disasters as well as the medical incidents. It seems the society has the deep understanding of protection, risk control, and scenario analysis. It is understandable since these things are fatal to us.

    In the stock market, when you just use the lines and patterns to decide what you do, it seems we really care about the results and ignore the fact we are human and we could make mistakes and we need to protect ourselves. So it is common we are insane in the stock market and most of market players are the losers.

    No one care about fail-safe and then we google to enjoy and enjoyment needs to pay the cost!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 20th Mar, 2012
  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    You are not idiotic but insane.

    In each forum, sometimes we call or are called as idiots or stupids.

    Actually we are not idiotic or stupid but insane time by time. We tend to know a lot but we don't have the mind to do the basic intelligent analysis and find the best scenarios of consequences from our own actions.

    What do I want? I don't want to be clever but wise.

    ***
    Just read a news about Syrian oppositions and the international support for them.

    They are very desperate and depressed due to they could not figure out their own minds what's a nation they really want or divided very much what a nation they really want; no a united oppositions with a clear goal for Syria not oppositions themselves worry the world and stop the world provide arms for them.

    News just shows too many insanity of some leaders of the opposition. Insanity at last would result in division and losing inside rather than outside.

    ***
    I appreciate their courage and gut very much but if a matter is really significant to you, feel good for you and your loves are not enough.

    I do feel they need some logic and spirit for goal driving, focus and plan, and comprising in anything which are trivial things for the most matter things. Yes focus on vital few and compromise on trivial many!

    In the market there are nothing is matter if you can get profit except you do inside trading. It needs self-checking rather than checking or being checked.

    At moment I just try to invert again and again about the decision to join AKK SPP or not. Nothing is for sure but you have to do all for the goal, the profit in the market.

    It looks attractive but could I lock the profit after...
     
  3. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    XAO stops its desperaton to brace GFCII!

    XAO rushes to its 2012 peak while most burses globally are in red. The commentators and a lot of individual traders were surprised since XAO has led the world desperately into the imaginary GFCII.

    However if we have noticed XAO was the worst performers while Australia economies are one of best in the world, it has all of reasons and logic to do so even few could see it could happen today.

    Personally I am very happy to see this scenario after the tenacious war of contrition which put most of traders and investors in the ruins painfully.

    ***
    The market always run in cycles. After some great crash, it should be recovered while hopes slowly buries the depression. It seems my last defensive line would be good enough to protect me from the hell even my mistakes, fear and greed, still damaged myself terribly.

    There were some events to trigger XAO to rush for the peak but it is still very coward and stay behind most of burses in this world. It looks like the big boys are trying to get their position after all of assumed risks have unfolded their power.

    The rally was broad-based, with all sectors posting gains. It could extend its winning if US could hold on above 13000 and China just land softly as the market expect rather than crashing down. It is possible but it is improbable for a reformed, market driving, but still a totalitarian government.

    ***
    After I watched "The history of world war II" from BBC, I do feel it is very effective to fight against crises if a government could put control on all or most of social resources.

    War economies are abnormal and short-term ones but very powerful and effective to stop the Domino effects of crashes if the users know they are just to stop the contamination, which are true to Hitler's Germany, Churchill's England, GFC's US, China before 1978, and Northern Korea... Unfortunately not all of people know that it could not be abused. Hitler was a genius devil and he knew how to use the power but...

    China should have enough tools to avoid any economic crashes after it has known the GFC and its effects good enough. So soft landing should have 80% chances.

    ***
    Technically and psychologically it was a great event to XAO.

    So it’s a refreshing change and we’ve gone sailing past that previous resistance mark at 4000 and 4300 (points) and things are looking particularly positive as it stands at the moment. All sectors of the market with the exception of utilities are in positive territory.

    It is quite possible XAO has fought out from its most difficult time and more hopes would appear while the world gets its feet after GFC, EU debt crisis, and worries of China tipping off.

    Sir, it seems you don't need to cry for the darkness anymore! However I do warn you no way is in straight!

    ***
    When the fundamental in economies are ready for hopes, the market does need triggers. The rally was driven by comments by the Reserve Bank.

    It said confidence in global financial markets had improved markedly since concerns mounted around euro zone debt in mid to late 2011. I do feel very disappointed. It is obvious matter and most of traders and investors seem have no brain to guide their eyes to see.

    Human enjoys to run together for good or bad. Human is highly intelligent and could get together for a collective goal even most of the collective population could not figure out why their leaders lead them into this or that way!

    ***
    What should I do? I have held my positions in the ruins since the April 2011. I have worked on to build my last defensive line. I do need to hold my position and wait for most of warriors who could jump back get their own position.

    Do you fear you would miss the train for next booming or upward? I have been on board with the confidence the train would leave from the station! I do know it would crash again but it would happen after too many traders and investors overload the train.

    The mistakes in last decade let me know I need the corner as my home before the party on the castle in air crashes down to ground; warriors are materials to be consumed; and I have to be a businesslike market players to service the warriors.

    ***
    By the way a report from front line said my service business have got 5% of the paper profit which I lost in last year back. Destination starts from the first step!

    Fail-safe and no harm are the truism for Engineers and Doctors. Margin of safety is the truism followed by the great traders and investors. If you could not get your goal, you don't need to commit suicides and you could wait for your turn!

    Life is good since we could be good for what we want to do even it could not be done in one day. Human knows that and then it could dominate this world! Could you dominate yourself? Yes, I could after I put myself into this personal cause!

    ***
    Do you know why 1+1 = 2 in the market? Do you know why 1-1=0? If you just make losses and stop losses you are playing a game for 1-1=0(no gearing).

    If I buy I should be 100% sure I would get the profit plus the protection for my human errors. I don't have any power to control any external resources, which has been shown by the fact I could be so easily put into ignored list. I just could control myself and roll my little wealth snowball into the field where is cold and full of snows.

    It is amazing if you could listen English, which is a language of music! Just before I started to listen ABC news by following the transcriptions, I just could not catch up too much from the radios. Now after desperately work on it, I could watch and get the points from "Secrets of World War II" without subtitles.

    ***
    Bit by bit our efforts would reveal our potentials. We can trail and error as babies; We can learn from the Greats as we could be Engineers or other professionals; We can create and get vision; We can get our goals, plan, and find the procedure to get them!

    I like the Internet very much but I would never abuse this huge library. In Chinese if you read but never ponder on what you read, you would be doomed. Why do you just copy and paste? How could you get your degree or be professionals by copying and pasting only?

    We all need new ideas to solve the old problems or use old ideas to solve the new problems. I have known it since I was 15 but I never thought I needed it in the market.

    ***
    During the debacles last year, my daughter said

    "Dad you have to change; you are too focus; you need a integral mind to zoom in and out; you need to fix your spoken and listening English; you need to fix some very basic issues about human being!" She was right and I knew it very well but it is terribly difficult to change yourself!

    I don't want to get the pension and relax in my retirement. I need something which could drive me do all for it. For it I would like to take the courses to educate myself. I will do it!

    Tech is nothing if you don't have internal integration and strength. We are not lack of them but they do hide somewhere in our minds otherwise we could not bit by bit move forward in our social life. Could we find them and restructure them in a way we could use in the market?
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 28th Mar, 2012
  4. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Syrian oppositions and market playing

    Syrian oppositions have one goal to overthrow the bloody government of Bashar al-Assad. However they all have different direct or personal goals. They need a framework for change. If they keep to riven by differences, they would be doomed.

    Do you have a integral mental framework for your goal, profit, which could suppress any biases, abuses, and primary instincts of your mind and leave buffer in case they play the part when you are in the market?

    If you take some wise words from somewhere and mix them with your insanity, what could you get? You will be doomed!

    ***
    Hillary Clinton said about Syrian oppositions:

    They must come forward with a unified position, a vision, if you will, of the kind of Syria that they are working to build.

    They must be able to clearly demonstrate a commitment to including all Syrians and protecting the rights of all Syrians.

    ***
    Could you get a position for your portfolio in the market, which could let your shares work together and let you feel strong enough?

    Could you have your vision and do you really understand what vision means to you? Could you work to build your mental framework for your strength in the market?

    Could you commit to update your integral mental framework or busy to put people into your ignored list?

    ***
    The above questions are critical for your internal mental framework rebuilding and it could be the source of wisdom. Have you thought about them before? It could not be got from the lines and patterns.

    What you say is important if the words are from yourselves. However if you want to be seen by Mr. Market seriously, you have to change your behavior in the market. As Hillary said you need to convince people for your change in your actions.

    However it could be first step to change yourselves by changing the words you use and the way you put them together.

    ***
    However we are too hungry for the money; too keen to get the money quickly; too fearful to miss the trains or worrying nowhere to go; too much losses; too weak gut; too little capital; and so on.

    All of them work very effectively in the market. 85% of market traders and investors just could not get these weakness. These weakness contributes greatly to their primary mental framework and stop them to move up to update their mental framework.

    Most of us over promise and under-deliver, so that commitment must now be matched by immediate actions. Could you? I see, frankly, frameworks for evasion, delay, manoeuvring, and self-promoting.

    And I'm afraid, tragically, that this is going to continue. Most of us would be doomed in the market!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 29th Mar, 2012
  5. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Lucks and danger

    Looking back, in 1996, I didn't really think about how dangerous the stock market could be. Actually I did assume it would have been a race field for the quick money which could have been used for my ambition in my own loved field, electronic control system.

    Stock market isn't the most forgiving place for money but nor is it the most dangerous. It is a challenging field. It's very open and very fair. It's exposed to big waves in price. If you are at the right price and time you could be rewarded greatly. However it's also got pretty heavy wave breaking sometimes, which could be strong enough to damage your any attempts to stop the affordable losses rather than burning the money on fire.

    We all come from some offices and workshops and we really could not know enough about the risks and chances. Our experiences in offices or workshops make us lack of the ideas how to protect our own in the market. We all have the fundamental problems when we jumped into market, big or small. These fundamental problems have made a lot of traders and investors wonder why they could lose so completely! Too many left the market with cuts...

    ***
    Could you trade and invest safely in the stock market? Sometimes you can even you don't have any protection, such as the time when bums and genius both could win together, but sometimes you cannot and you have to get out of the market before the damages would be done. Most of traders really don't know what times they should be or out of the market. Do you know?

    In reality, even if most of market make the money, you could lose the money terribly. There's a big swell coming in as in any Gold Beaches. All of us know a big swell is probably hitting a large section of the coast and unless you've been very protected. There are high level of potential dangers in the stock market always!

    Have you lost some big money in the stock market already? Do you take the incidents as warning that even very good traders can get themselves into serious trouble? If a big swell storm in the stock market could destroy most of capital, you would be doomed without matter how you are genius or bums. Do you believe you can swim in the ocean safety just because you are in a advanced warship or you are extremely clever?

    ***
    We shouldn't be over confident in the stock market. We shouldn't assume our IQ could sustain the crash. We should not assume "stopping losses" would work at all time so that we could avoid the shirt losing. We shouldn't assume that even elite traders are necessarily going to be 100 per cent safe in the stock market.

    We always need to factor that in and be a bit more cautious when we put money into stock market and ask ourselves what protection we do need to protect our shirts in the worst scenarios. The reality that the stock market is pretty dynamic, even elite traders or investors can get into trouble, must be into each of bones and cells in our bodies.

    How long have you been in the market? 1 year, 2 year, 10 years, or more? Do you believe a 1 year baby could handle the risks in the ocean properly even if he is gifted in IQ? How strong can a kid really be? We have to know it is the nature of competitions in trading and investing; it's a given risk.

    ***
    Do you scared if a baby less than 5 years old would cheers or curse what they see with the words sounded very clever? I cheered and cursed before 2011 insanely some times. Could I be matured in the market mentally? If not I would be doomed.

    A challenge is we could sound or look very cautious but we are not! Life logic and common senses are always taken as cliches as a baby would be not fearful about the fire until he was burnt and saved by other adults.

    The problem is no one could save you if you play the fire without protection in the stock market. It usually is too late when you know you did play the fire without enough protection!
     
  6. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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  7. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    intuition and instinct

    Genius falls down when he could not harness its primary instincts at come crucial time and place. Bums can grow up even he can not get the IQ for complicated matters but could catch chances by knowing his limitation and fine tune himself at the best time and place for best return. Bums can thrive.

    Youtube is a facility which could be used for enhance your primary instinct for quick gratification and also can be used to sharpen your mind so that you can get intuition for chances and harness the risks. Whom are you? What would you want to get and then focus on what you want? When a man watch too many Youtube for twisting words, it risks himself to be doomed.

    What's the intuition? Is it any helpful if you could get intuition for some chances with little risks? How could you get this intuition? At the peak before GFC, could you sure you feel the looming huge risks to lose the shirts? After GFC great crash between Nov 2008 - March 2009, could you be sure you could be rewarded by the following unavoidable recovery? How to be rewarded?

    ***
    If any one watch Youtube for answers, they are very much probable to enhance their primary instincts rather than the intuition. Why? Any intelligent traders and investors would have no interests to put themselves into YouTube.

    It is uncertain what will happen. You could not sure what is the next episode would be. Your jobs are to sense the risks and grip the chances. If you put yourselves in YouTube, you put your focus on wrong things. Do you think it is wise to do the trivial many YouTube and lose your shirts in the ruins?

    Just watched first three episodes of The life of Mammals and noticed the words: "All of mammals make what they are by choosing what they eat." Actually what your read, which you could digest, make what you are in the market. Only could watch YouTube without digestion seems tell whom you are in the market.

    ***
    It seems true now. XAO has fluctuated for more than one year. Too many traders have successfully lost their shirts. They follow the market to curse or cheer. Now most of them don't know what they should do.

    So Youtube is a way for quick gratification. If in July 2011, it was a time to decide if you should join the stampede of the warriors for exit or set up your defensive line to protect yourselves, now it is the time you have to think about how to protect the capital which has been recovered or the paper profit which you have lost in the bumpy XAO since the April 2011.

    There are at least two different scenarios in future: US peaks out and China fails its softly landing or the market as a whole thinks so; US gets new driving power and China starts its long journey for its better future while EU surprises the criers become stabilized on the rock.

    ***
    What's your intuition about the future chances and risks? Don't tell me your line(resistance or whatever they are or the patterns of yesterday or Youtbue) could give this type intuition to you.

    By definition intuition is the ability to acquire knowledge without inference or the use of reason. Intuition often roughly means 'to look inside'’ or 'to contemplate'. Are you trying to look inside of XAO and yourself; the world as a whole and the hot spots or black swans? What if some of them happen to your portfolio?

    Intuition provides us with beliefs that we cannot necessarily justify. It doesn't link to anything you could use or facts you could see in the last few days or weeks. It is about vision, zooming in and out, inverting, and gut to face the various possibility with the right probability analysis.

    The "right brain" is popularly associated with intuitive processes such as aesthetic abilities and understanding of the art of market. This right brain could come with someone who have this kind of gift and they use the right brain at their early ages.

    ***
    Do you have this right brain for your market activities? Genius or clever boys usually don't have the right brains. They could be singled out for some special jobs but they don't have the right brain since they usually have not enough time and knowledge to get the right brains.

    Why so many people have lost their shirts in the stock market? Livermore won a lot but lost all at last including his life. When you cheer with Youtube, could you tell yourself whom you are? If not, you have 85% chances with wrong brains.

    Wrong brains would be insane and repeat to be insane by repeating their losing actions so that they would be traded in by Mr Market sooner or later.

    Why do you say so? It is because success comes with goal-driving actions. It is because failure comes with feeling-driving actions. If your actions and goal could be changed by Youtube, you would be doomed in the market.

    ***
    Why do Warren Buffett and George Soros could win for so long time? They could look inside rather than the lines and patterns in price charts only. George Soros have his own theories to trade let alone his capability to look inside of the economies in future. Buffett has not his own theories but he resolved to learn from Greats, Benjamin Graham.

    Have you asked yourself whom or what you are following? Charts or Youtube? Wrong!

    Generally saying who watch YouTube with wrong brains would suffer much more. Why do I try all to update my mental framework? I just do anything I feel is necessary for a right brain. If you have a right brain and have no money, you could make money. If you have a wrong brain and have a lot of money you could lose them very easily in the market.

    I had not done any systematic reading about the world, life, and market, after I left China since I have to deal with a lot of challenges while I tried all to put my root into a soil with my Engineering skills. However after my kid moved out and I have held three houses for more than 19 years, I have the privileges to redesign my next 20 years.

    ***
    Intuition is about to look inside. Language is the tool to get into this world and yourself. I have to efficiently and effectively to use English as my tool for looking inside.

    In hindsight, I should put at least one year away for my English 20 years after coming to Australia. No good enough spoken and listening capability in English I could not adapt me into the future unKNOWn!

    They are basic which are available to anyone who are born here. I have to get the same starting line as they have got. It is not about just about job, market, or profit, it is about how I could efficiently and effectively build a right brain for my life in next 20 years.

    ***
    Some of my friends thought I was mad. They just want me to sell my properties, pay off the debts, and enjoy the life with the reasonable big profit for anyone who just work for others in their life. Life is about goals, big or small. Everyone can and only can get the life by doing what they really want to do!

    I know what I want and I expect I could do what I want in full time: read to digest what about the life and market; thought to look inside for vision and profit; giving to realize my value; write to tell what I thought and if possible spread my thought to aspire the youth have better life!

    Life is good and all of us have only one life. You will make a lot of human errors but you should find your ways to move forward, good or bad in others eyes, if it is your choice!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 2nd Apr, 2012
  8. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    When, what, why, & how do you bite off

    What can you bite off in the stock market? When could you have a bite off? How do you try to bite off? Why bite off more than you can chew or hold?

    Especially what the consequences if you bite off more than you can chew? Have your mouth hurt since you rush in or run away desperately?

    Before chewing just scale what you could bite off, which is better you stop losses after you have been hurt. Don't tell me you don't mind your fingers to be burnt...?

    ***
    Among the traders and investors, some tend to resent towards others or anyone who upset them. It was true especially in GFC ruins and repercussions since then. However it is wrong. There are no basis for anyone to resent others or the environments.

    We have to realize that we couldn't go on to be insane as we were and there is urgency for us to know we shouldn't waste a good crisis and honest human errors in the market. We should use the consequences of the crisis and errors to cleanse our own mental framework. We couldn't go on as we were in IT boom and bust or GFC.

    ***
    Yes there are fears what if others do something very badly and result in market crash again. However it is not any individual or one institution who wants to crash the things down but market nature to correct itself by overreaction. No overdone no correction.

    It is our own fault to burn the money. It is our own fault to miss the V-shape recovery. It is our own fault to misunderstand the conditions or context where the market would move towards. We fail to be self-awareness first and then we fail to be environment-awareness.

    ***
    The Romans had a phrase, "quis custodiet ipsos custodes?" and it was the question posed by the fact that you or some else just lost their shirts. What's the phrase meaning? Who Guards the Guards?

    Who guard your money in the stock market? Yourself or someone else? Who guards you or the ones who look after your money? In a lot of time, we just don't do anything to guard our own money in insane buying, holding and selling. If you are the guard for your money, only your mental framework can guard yourself.

    If you don't have a good mental framework, you could not guard yourself and your money. It is insane without guard for your hard-earned money, right? If you are insane you deserve to be doomed, right?

    ***
    How could you get a right brain? I question myself very seriously.

    In the market, there are too many questions, which should be raised but not be asked. Since not right questions are asked, it it logic that there aren't certainly right solutions available.

    If we want to be in the market without being traded by market, we need to make sure that this cannot continue.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 2nd Apr, 2012