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Trading ADY: It is flying higher and higher...

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 23rd May, 2011.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
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    1,292
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    Perth
    ADY is a kind of fishes I collected in October 2010. It was very disappointed for a quite long time after I got some of them at $0.04(actually $0.008, the price before consolidation).

    Anyway it is flying higher and higher from its doorstep of the hell. What drive the flying? I really don't know since I just could not find the information to figure out the causes. It is not bad since they may be the insider traders, investors, bargain hunters, or puff following day traders.

    Should I sell? Not now since I have locked too much corresponding to my total capital this financial year. It is beautiful to see my fish flying in the selling days of the selling season.

    Why did I buy it? In the most popular day trading forum, HC, no one dares to cheer for it even its price has been doubled of the lowest price. Buy in the panic and the difference after the panic for my lowest targets!

    [​IMG]

    Do hope next financial year I could get 1 or 2 of 10 baggers or 20 or 50 baggers? Are you sure? No! But I follow my rules!
     
  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
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    Location:
    Perth
    ADY: What's human react to turbulences?

    Australia stock market keeps its correction which let a lot of market players believe, if the sky would not fall down, it would be darker and darker hopelessly. One failure in the market is the "Unusual business environment" and market sentiment:

    Turbulence in the business environment can produce or contribute to valuation errors.

    (Human being is thoughtful animal who desire to make happy life even thought they usually stop when the quick gratification comes in. The turbulence means uncertainties and we never be happy if we could not be sure we could get the reasonable results. So once things become worse, we tend to:

    1>. Anxiety, which is not good feeling all we want to get rid off it. Most of us choose the least effort way.

    2>. Denial, which greatly reduce our anxiety and remove a lot of feeling of the uncertainty. It is short time term and everything would be better even the things turn to be worse.

    3>. Fear, which is caused by the confirmation what we have tried very hard to deny. What would be next? What if it is worse? How much could we lose more?

    4>. Desperation, that is normal development of our feeling after we are in anxiety, denial, and fear. If it becomes worse I would run away. I have to get out here!

    5>. Panic, that is really true after we are hit again and again. Run! Too many start to run without thinking how about the cost

    6>. Capitulation. What if you don't run away with the herd? You simply give up and don't want do anything for the light at the end of tunnel but hope if you are lucky.

    7>. Despondency. It is really bad and you believe you could do anything better. OK I accept what you give to me. It is my fate.

    8>. Depression. All around are the ruins. No hopes in sight. Don't know what you should do. Cry in depression and find excuses for your own mistakes and blame this or that someone else.

    Don't say you are different since you have your lovely system and then you could make losses, stop losses, and still get good feelings and happy market life! You could not! Why? You are human and walk folks even you believe you are making the folklore.

    The best way to correct our cognitive biases is "inverting, inverting, and keep inverting," as said Charley Monger, until you could see a full picture of the future, which is different from what you could see in the market. Why do so? Since past is past and you only need to hold the future!

    More thought in wdongli - Member Blogs
     
  3. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    No explanation but it keeps to rise!

    All of retail traders and investors, especially the shirt-lost day traders or long term investors around Ady and most of them simply resort this rising as pumps and dumps. However have you questioned why it has kept to rise in this market selling season? Who are playing the fire against the market herd? Are the value investors playing a distressed and highly underpriced dirty-fish or manipulating the market?

    It is good news that no news its price goes up! That means someones have done some diligence of its future at least before next September! It has cash and no debt. It has completed payment for the mineral concessions known as Pampa Tololo, covering 3,455 Ha, pursuant to the Purchase
    Agreement entered in September 2008. It has new big shareholder and nearly all of its top 20 shareholders rise the shares they hold.

    Good thing needs the time to show and usually much slower than that of the bad things to be thrown away. I am happy I paid $0.04 and I do hope it gets some correction and rises up to $0.25 or $0.5. It needs the time to do better job and I need to give me a chance. Both Ady and me must be patient. Who care about the losers' feeling? In the market no one really care about if we don't care about our chances and risks.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    When anyone loses too much, such as who bought ADY above $0.20($0.04 after consolidation) and failed to stop losses, for too long, he would tend to see the things darker. At its current price, ADY is still at its bottom channel. However something really happened as shown in http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110429/pdf/01175296.pdf.

    Admiralty remained debt free and cash on hand at the end of the quarter was $3,066,000 (Previous quarter: $502,000).

    • Subsequently to the end of the quarter, Admiralty raised $1,727,500 via the Share Purchase Plan (SPP).

    • Scrutiny over administration expenses resulted in a 45% cost reduction for the quarter.

    • Strengthening of the Board by the appointment of Dr. Shaoqing Li as a non-executive Director.

    • Strengthening of the shareholder base:

    i. high support received from shareholders for the SPP with an average of $5,000 participation per holder;

    ii. market confidence kept the share price at 17% above the maximum SPP issue price(3.3c)

    iii. Top 20 holders own over 1/3 of the shares on issue; and

    iv. attracted a substantial investor, Sino Holding & Investment Pty Ltd, as a result of a placement on 29 March 2011.

    • Completed payment for the mineral concessions known as Pampa Tololo, covering 3,455 Ha, pursuant to the Purchase Agreement entered in September 2008.

    • Finalisation of the administrative setup of the Chilean branch, Admiralty Minerals Chile Pty Ltd Agencia en Chile.

    I wonder why Ady didn't told ASX again again about the above. They tell all why ADY should be up, even I really don't know when it should be down.

    What if it will redo what happened at the end of 2004 and repeated the similar format until GFC crash? Dog has dog days and some ugly duck could be swan even few would like to have a look at a ugly! Man always likes the glory appearance...pay for the glory appearance...crying for the glory gone in desperate...and forget today's glory comes from the ruins in the remote history!

    I would like to die with ADY at the price I paid $0.008(before consolidation) than to be crazy at the price of $0.20 or $0.30. It is nice you paid the price for crash and I pick up the pieces of money from the ashes and exchange the notes in the bank! Someday all of bums and genius would make money if you sit at the market. When will it be? Someday....
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 25th May, 2011
  4. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
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    Location:
    Perth
    Yes I try very hard to learn inverting what Mr Market wants us to do. It is selling season and instinctively we tend to be dismal and it could let us miss the opportunities.

    I don't believe anyone if not confident enough, would risk their money to pump ADY price. If so the price would crash and trap them there once they stop their own pumping. Who follow them when the market has some bargain hunters only? No one would be happy while he count his days when all around him prepare his funeral!

    The driving forces definitely have their strategic objectives even we don't know what they are!