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Trading AKK: The followers of SSN?

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 19th Sep, 2011.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    31st Mar, 2010
    Posts:
    1,292
    Location:
    Perth
    I have noticed AKK has undergone significant transformation over the last 12 months with management changes accompanying a strategic shift towards non conventional liquids rich shale onshore USA.

    However my mistakes between April and June made me very fearful to buy anything for new losses. Anyway in the rebalanced procedure, I realized AKK's potential was huge and the risk is worthy to take. So I bought it at $0.026 in this market storm.

    AKK now has large exposure to both the Eagle Ford Shale and the Niobrara Shale, with >14,000 net acres across both plays. I know both of these shale since I played with them with AZZ and SSN.

    Both AKK's projects have been acquired at competitive prices after substantial technical and commercial due diligence. Its management seems get a lot of lessons from the mistakes in the past as I did from my mistakes.

    Each project has satisfied all of the required parameters for commerciality apart from drilling and testing. It actually has started its first drilling. Moderate success at either one of the projects would result in multiple returns on investment from current share price levels, which I believe.

    Hope AKK follows SSN to be 10 baggers. If so I would say I am really lucky and it would give me a chances to be a prudent, disciplined, behaved market full time student!

    I know I could not avoid human errors. I do hope my prudent rebalance of my portfolio could be no loss at the worst case and then I could wait for my turn to run under the rising Sun! It is fool game which need life logic, common sense, prudence, and gut to take the affordable risks for what we deserve! I could not predict where the great black swans would hover over but I have to try all to get my position roughly close where they would be!

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  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    31st Mar, 2010
    Posts:
    1,292
    Location:
    Perth
    Good black swans over AKK?

    Since it was listed in XAO, it has been hit by bad black swans again and again. However the current storm seemingly fail to beat it down to much but in its bottom channel built since GFC.

    Today it asked to halt its trading for something like a material reserves report. Could it be good or black swan? Don't know really and don't want to guess. Hope it could tell market it has found huge oil tank which filled in full a few million years ago.

    VIX could be up tonight and XAO just guesses it would. So XAO is on sale now. If AKK just halt trading and goes up while XAO collectively burns the money, I would be very happy!

    ***
    If no unaffordable risks, I enjoy to ride on the rollers-coasters with the tightened safety belt, see people cry loudly just due to fears! It is exciting, thrilling, and very enjoyable. I got FDL at $0.01, saw it shot up to $0.23 before GFC, dropped down to $0.025, and ride to $0.135(changed to FMS) at which I collapsed to hold it any longer!

    Any unaffordable risk to hold AKK now? I would check my safety belt again and again! The contrition war is the best way to wipe out the last resistance of weak hands. All of burst bubbles would dry out in the bust and new bubbles start its journey to form when all are seen as bubbles!

    Don't let yourself dried up by the bust. AKK, SSN, KIK, FAR, and BKP do need the oil tanks full of oil in the ground. If they have huge oil tanks which are full of oil, XAO ruins would make them look more fancy and attractive! In hindsight, I understand why FMS could shine again after GFC. It was dirty-cheap and had huge IO reserve!

    ***
    Aussie warriors worry about everything in this world now but they miss a very important fact, that is most of companies if they could have hoarded a lot of cash or current asset and greatly reduced the debt. For example at moment AKK has $4million cash and nil debt, SSN has $55millions cash, BKP has cash more than $5millions!

    What if Greece is in default? Interest rate drops down here as stone! Aussie dollars drops down as stone! If the sky is there, which I believe and Euro politicians would be forced to fight desperately to save the sky and save themselves, we could expect another great V-shape recovery even not 100% sure! If possible you still need to run your car and get your necessities. What if all are in ruins? Gold would shoot up? People need some straws before they die in the water! Why so many cry? They cry something they should not! They cry for the sky; they cry for what they have lost; they cry for the darkness but not what they have since they could not seen what if the Sun would rise up again!

    I don't cry for the darkness but I do cry for my stupidity which allowed me to be synchronized with the market sentiment, the cried and extremely emotional warriors between April - June!

    ***
    One thing is sure if the sky is there XAO would not dare to commit suicide and put itself at zero! What the retail warriors? Most of them have lost the shirts and those who are still in the market such as the big institutional boys are counting XAO in days only! We are all ready to run nowhere except to the hell!

    Don't race into the hell before the sky falls down into ground! One day all of day traders, who are in the market long enough, would be long term investors since they could not have anything to trade! Want to get pennies by risking the dollars without enough protection? The dollars would be in the slaughter tables with some advanced day trading systems! Why? God or nature don't allow the money or resources are so easy to be accumulated by the gamblers day by day!

    How? Mr Market could make one or few days look as though no tomorrow for the day traders! It doesn't happen everyday but it does so every two years or 4 years or 10 years. No one could get the pattern for these days! In this sense, I have to say Warren Buffett is very wise even I believe he is a fool! Now do you wonder why he just uses his computer to play the bridge but leave all of tenuous computer works to the genius?

    I guess my problem in the market is I know computers too much! So that I assumed that I could jump out of the control of the rules and principles, the behavior, and business for fools times by times.

    You are too clever to be a loser, sir!

    LOL!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 19th Sep, 2011
  3. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    31st Mar, 2010
    Posts:
    1,292
    Location:
    Perth
    Horror-struck, it drops down...!

    It is horror-struck to see AKK price dropped down from $0.034 to $0.28, isn't it? It means 18% loss! If every year you lose 18%, you would be forced to sell your house on fire!

    That is the catch to buy low in the market crashing and turbulent time. You guess or believe it is at the lowest price but later you find the price could be 10% or even 50% lower than what you paid! If you count on the paper money everyday, you could not feel good or quite likely you would be in panic. That is what happen around AKK. When the day-traders cheered for its moving up, any wing flags could get some selling momentum without matter if AKK has the oil or not!

    What day-traders work for at moment? We need to understand the followings:

    1. There are still a lot of worries and panic since 95% of bargain-type day traders lose the money at least since April.

    2. When you have a red ink for your portfolio, you tend to speed up to stop your loss and lock your profit. In days no one could predict where the market really goes except to see the patterns shown in the chart.

    3. AKK has moved in its bottom channel built since Mach 2009. It is so vivid in the rear mirror. The market mood is so bad that everyone just wonder what if GFCII is there. We all know the seriousness of GFC II if it is the same as GFC. No one could find whether we have GFCII or not but everyone says we will have!

    4. For safety in the ruins, in case another wild fire would burn Aussie houses down, sell anything you doubt. Who could say AKK definitely have the oil? Who could say US is a place you drill and then you just get shale oil?

    5. No sure and sell for safety! It is the same as FMS in GFC, which dropped down to $0.025 from $0.23 around. AKK has some oil and very attractive shale oil asset, eh? If we could sell before the crash and buy back after the crash, you would get huge profit!

    6. The problem is GFC is not the current crisis. Time is important but timing absolutely right is impossible. So sell since we could not see into tomorrow!

    However is it wise to risk the dollars for pennies? You get some gold bars in the eye of tsunami and sell it at iron crap for penny profit. You could be lucky for one or two or even 10 times in the eye of tsunami but...

    It sounds logic that you look for the gold bar in the eye of tsunami without risk yourself and get it and hold it until a lot of people could see its value!

    I am waiting for the sellers to sell more. I feel AKK has the shale oil. What if I sold FMS at $0.025 in GFC? I would have got 1.5 baggers profit. What for my selling price at $0.135 around? I got 12.5 baggers?

    If you dare to get something from the eye of tsunami you have to get the gut and cash reserve to hold until the tsunami gone! Is it a system? No! It is life logic and common senses. Are you sure? Nothing is sure for AKK. For sure, you should sell all and leave away from the market!

    To AKK, it is sure if it could get the oil as its report displayed, $0.035 is extremely cheap; if it could not get oil again and again it would be too expensive. What is the not expensive if it has not oil at all? Zero!

    We always have risks in the market. The question is how we protect ourselves which should be more complicated than the simple pattern recolonization and set a simple line to stop losses. These humans are too clever to challenge basic rules and do you think they could get pennies in the eyes of tsunami days by days for decades? Give them some lessons! Who said that? God or The Great Nature? I did get the lessons every time I tried to challenge the basic!