Discussion in 'Real Estate' started by Nigel Ward, 1st Oct, 2008.
Get it here ANZ Property Outlook
Investors in anything should always repeat the following to themselves daily -
Believe nothing of what you read
Believe nothing of what you hear
Believe 50% of what you see with your own eyes
If you do this you'll be ok.
Another personal opinion of the msm (including appalling reports such as the above ANZ piece).
I've basically stopped reading msm because everything after the first paragraph is subjective.
Looking at the chart there will be more positive influence than negative
and therefore we should see a support base for property prices
... and the government wouldn't be offering $20,000 off development costs, $500M affordable housing schemes, or new savings schemes if they thought hourse prices were coming down any time soon...
time for a golden oldie -
'denial aint a river in Egypt'.
With every week that passes more black clouds gather, property growth stumbles a little more and the sentiment dampens.
Loans are getting more difficult, higher deposits will be required and mortgage renewal terms will demand a lower LTV (meaning you will need to stump up some additional cash in order to refinance).
Many will simply not have the cash and will instead try to sell their property. This will grow into a rather large wave of sellers trying to hit the exits simultaneously which will reduce prices.
Its really very simple stuff but when you're in the game (ie holding highly leveraged real estate) that Egyptian river seems irrelevant.
Yes, I admit that my more recent acquisition has only gone up about 9-10% in 18months, based on very recent comparative sales. Not the greatest, when you consider inflation, but I'm sort of glad that I haven't bought any properties of the types that you must be looking at.
Australia is still has one of the highest levels of population growth for many years, largely through immigration, and new building is low because some governments are charging >$120k in development fees for basic blocks. Unless governments slash fees and the time to process development applications, I can't see the pressure on prices allowing significant drops. There will be a few exceptions for resales, for example where there's an unemployment problem. House prices, on average, are just not going anywhere for a while (e.g. inner Sydney going up, outer / West going down, average = not much news %). This is not the same as the US situation with a major oversupply of (many now empty) houses.
With the recent 1% interest rate cuts (with potentially more to come) I find it extremely hard to believe that there will be any major correction in Australian property prices.
Obviously property price growth might be hindered a little with the growing unemployment we are likely to see over the next 6+ months, but all in all I think that we are much more likely to see a fairly flat property market over the next 6 - 12 months, before we really start to see some quite strong growth again, underpinned by lower interest rates, higher yeilds and a lot of backed up demand pressures.
That's my two and a half aussie cents...
I think you are spot on
I'd give you until Feb 09 to ditch your money sink ip's after that its d-day and the tough reality will bight hard.
Anyway, take care, protect your hard earned.
I'm off to see those big pointy houses in the desert and visit that river I was harping on about.
Parting word - all asset values post 1996 are fake.
BigCharts - QuickCharts
Note - GE / GM and others started to become pseudo finance institution in the middle of the 90's when credit dervatives went main stream. From that point there was no turning back.
What are you doing here?
I thought you would be watching the DAX and looking for the exit...
Do you really think this mess will take till Feb to sort out?
Anyway, I can't do it in the short timeframe you are giving me.
My tenants require 60 days notice so that takes us to the middle of December and then we have Xmas and Oz summer holidays so there is no chance of selling my IP's by Feb.
Unless we have a firesale for Xmas....
Yes, I'm not really sure why 02 is here - he doesn't seem to want to talk about investing.
the DAX, lol.
I was at a party a month ago and was talking to a financial advisor. I told her what I thought and she replied shes heard that for the last 5 years and despite that she'd done really well for her clients.
She went on to explain that shes now steering her clients to Middle east investments. At that point I nearly keeled over.
She was clearly drunk on her own bs. I suspect I will bump into her again soon, I will avoid talking finances.
I think there will is likely to be a strong bounce soon that will be vertical to start with then round off and look flatish for a period of months. That will be the last chance to get out. I suspect that will run until Feb 09, then its going lower than today.
My investment tips , buy Yen, CHF , gold and clear debts.
Wait until at least 2011 and buy bargains.
Why am I here? In truth, this is just one of many forums etc that I frequent.
They enable me to keep a pulse on whats happening in varoius locations.
what did you expect her to tell you?
When UK got too expensive advisers told people to look at France, Italy, Spain etc
When Spain got too expensive they turned to Cyprus, Morocco Dubai etc.
They are now running out of options.
There is still a Lot of construction going on in DUBAI and the developers are hoping for another 2 years of growth but I personally think they are over optimistic
Mideast property market seen outperforming - survey | Industries | Financial Services & Real Estate | Reuters
Are you talking about Oz property?
If interest rates drop further it's possible to have a rebound in some regions but that would depend on the availability of finance.
Lending criteria are getting tighter by the day and people also need to have a deposit.
It's down 10% ..
Have you lost any money?
I was in Dubai last year. On one hand its truly impressive whats taking place there but freightening on the other. Real estate there is the mother of all bubbles. ....even worse than oz, lol.
I have no money in the German market, zero.
I took a long position yesterday on the SP500 index, so lets see what happens.
Good call, the market were definitely oversold on Friday, though general opinion seems to suggest that the markets won't be bullish again for some time, maybe mid 2009...
Back on the property topic... how about good old K Rudd's increase in FHOGs, if there was any doubt that property prices weren't sustainable, you'd have to think the increased FHOGs will prop things up for awhile longer - not that I subscribe to the notion that property is overvalued given that interest rates are, and will continue to slide downwards for the coming months.
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