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ARH: A wing broken IO hopeful wants to fly

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 26th Nov, 2010.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    I like to buy at lowest price. I try all to buy my fishes when everyone in the market curse the disgusting appearance of my fishes. I know I am still lack the necessary knowledge to appraise the gems or value under the disgusting rubbish.

    ARH is a only one IO hopeful at the lowest part of the historical bottom for more than 2 decades. Yes, there were and will be a lot of problems but I never see any new mining could be built up without the problems. You get the problems everyday and if the cost to fix them is affordable, you don't need to worry.

    [​IMG]

    Value usually is changed by the completion of your job. It is true to ARH too. We could not fix the problems of ARH directly but ARH and the biggest owner of ARH have to fix these problems.

    We just try to get in at good price for great bargaining if no shooting up and momentum shows of its beauty. OK, I got it at $0.205 which was $0.005 higher than its lowest price in its historical bottom.

    It is my first buying for the fishes whose price is more than $0.10 since 2006. I wanted to see if I could get some dirty-cheap swans or reasonable big fishes. Too many just check the past and check the absolute price but never worry what the price is in the future and the margin of your buying price and this future price.

    It seems not too bad. Today it starts to challenge $0.255, a great sign which could be open a door for it to fly. How high could it fly? $2 or $9 as it did in 1987, a remote mining sunny time?

    No loss and you have ARH, eh? Dream and even dream under the Sun is acceptable and should be quite enjoyed matter.

    Let the dream to fly and we would make our own legendary.
     
  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    ARH: after it moves up from the lowest part of the historical bottom...

    ARH shot up and it doesn't surprise me which is the natural since ARH is not a dreadful dog at the door step of the hell and its biggest owner could not let it gone alone.

    ARH is a sacrifice of the decoupling theories which was believed before the global financial and economical system crash on Oct 2008. It could not get a fair deal in crash with China but it put all of its weight on China.

    The crash might rush away the decoupling theories but China is the biggest demand to our resource and will be doesn't change. A stabilized US economy and Euro economy is all ARH to wait in the case China doesn't crash(unlikely but who really knows?).

    The biggest owner of ARH seems have the same views about ARH and its environment as me. If thing back to normal and if the abnormal biggest crash in 70 years could not turn to be normal, IO demand and ARH current price just open the door for the rewarded risks.

    One of my best friends called me after the bottom jumping. He worries how high ARH would go. He wants to be sure to lock the profit. That is not wrong but if you risks all to hit out in the darkest time, should you run away when the Sun just appears at the horizon?

    What did you expect from ARH? he asked me. I said I expected it to be more than $2 at moment and fine tune in the future. Why? China has to support the IO hopeful for itself strategically.

    It is just about the time. All of us believe the darkness in the darkness. China needs the light to see ARH again. When everyone could see the light from the Sun, dear Sir, ARH would light you and me!
     
  3. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    First movement outside the emergency room!

    It is exciting to see a patient move around first time outside of the emergence room.
    [​IMG]
     
  4. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    ARH: The cause of swing up, fundamental Reasons or fads

    Why did they swing up from the lowest part of the bottom?

    There are two possible reasons for ARH and ORO to swing up from their lowest part of the bottom(of course if it had touched the lowest edge)

    1. purely the speculation fad which caused more imagination of the market players which formed some momentum to drive them up. If so, I should sell in the first day when they shot up vertically. It would be seen as spike in very short time.

    2. fundamental weak signals show the probabilities for them to turn into better positions, which would brought more traders to jump in and then the momentum was formed. It would be seen as the start stage of the upward trend for quite long time and the trend would developed in stages.

    Not sure but you have to get the mind in the uncertainties


    From the charts only we could not get a clear mind what the causes are from the price shooting up. The more annoyed thing is we would be easy to make mistakes to understand what the causes are.

    Most of bargain hunters try to go short cut, sell in the first shooting up, but usually forget the risks they have taken are so huge that they need more profit than normal from winners to compensate the loss from the falling knifes.

    We could not be sure we are always right since it should be hard to know the fundamental matters about the dirty-cheap fishes or swans. The appearance of them in fundamental matter should be very bad otherwise they should not be in the lowest part of the bottom.

    Quite probably the driving causes are fundamental ones

    Fortunately we should know the fundamental should be improved since in the worst time, all of messes and ruins have to move away and let the business move forward from the lowest points. They might be unable to move too far but logically if the crash could crash their price more than 99%, it should be not greedy to hope some 5-10 times return from some of them.

    So how about the driving causes to ARH and ORO? If you read their announcements good enough, you should get the feeling their fundamental is improved after they had fallen down when the market as a whole recovered.

    How far should they go up further and how quick could they shoot up again? Roughly they should take at least 3-6 months to give more signs of more fundamental improvement and confirm to the market the shooting up in the beginning is not the fads.

    No sure why don't sell?

    If you are not sure why don't you collect the chips from the table? Yes it is not sure but if it is sure in future, the reward would be much bigger than we collect now. I just think after the GFC and dumping of the market in V-shaped recovery, the market is not irrational and all around these two know the risks and it is possible they jumped in to speculation but they would not stay on the board too long.

    So in 80% chances the traders jump in/out just driven by the fears. Not jumping in makes them fearful that they could miss the train. Not jumping out makes them fearful too that they could be killed by another crash!

    After the bubbles in the shooting up gone, if you could still get half profit in the hand, you have the buffer first and second you could be 65% sure at least some fundamental causes are the reasons for them to shoot up.

    However do you really need the profit to move around?


    If yes, you have to sell. If not you have to hold.

    I decided to hold them until Feb 2011 for much better return with my mind ready to accept the loss of the profit. I do feel the risks are still the rewarded risks even I really want the cash into my pocket.