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Trading ARH: At least we paid less than clive did!

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 24th Feb, 2011.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Clive has paid much higher than my $0.21. It makes me very happy every time when I think about it. Without directly control he could work for my interest with all of his heart. It is like you get some workaholic as slaves for your in your workshop! Just image that if market sentiment changes or IPO to buy ARH successful, I would get a lot of people dance on tap to work for my interest. In the business world is it not what you expect? Why don't learn to appreciate yourselves and others?

    Critical thinking is about right strategically in some vital few, right? I am thinking about "when to hold'em and unfold'em" of the market crowd as a casino owner now. Let them worry and concern and I am waiting for their craziness. Traders are the prisoners of their box. Investors are the prisoners of their box too. Could we see the links among the different boxes for the day we could laugh loudly to the bank. Don't say we get the free lunch if we could. We put too much time to let us wise already if we could do so.

    More thought in wdongli - Member Blogs
     
  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Wonder: how could I pay less than anyone?

    We should be businessmen or women when we work in the market, shouldn't we? So a formula in business should not be forgot: All of costs for your utilities and profit should be much less than the profit every year. In a more nominal format it could be written as:

    A + B + C < D

    where A is cost for utilities as gamblers; B cost to generate profit; C: discount as the margin of safety for all you pay for gambling and profit; D is the profit after deduction of all of costs.

    If anyone fails to get the above formula correct in his market playing, he is a loser without matter how he claims he is clever or stupid.

    So far I get this formula work for my ARH betting but I still could not buy it at the price less than all who have paid. This formula doesn't work always for each of my dirty-cheap fishes in my portfolio. It makes me very concerned.

    Just wonder how to get C always, which should be high enough but could not be too high.

    A is necessary part for enjoying our market playing; B should be much less than the means or its historical probable expected value.

    Don't look down this formula. All of genius who fail in the market fail to follow this formula.
     
  3. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Just Some Chinese visits the site

    ARH seems very serious about the visiting of some Chinese. Do you feel that? If the deal is good to both of sides, some deal would make. It is normal for business but market could feel very abnormal.

    The visiting itself is not important but the impact to the agreement between parties to provide a basis for project funding and development. ARH actually has been beaten very much by the market since GFC. He could not raise money from its shareholders since its biggest shareholder hates the dilution. So it only could get the fund from some business partners.

    For a quite long time, people in the business world worry the risks more than they should. Understandable and to new shareholders it was not too bad. The more difficult to get something, the more important for their future, if we don't pay irrational high price.

    ARH has spent big enough capital in its IO project. GFC is gone. The confidence could be back sooner or later. I got ARH at $0.205 around. I don't hope it could be 10 baggers this year. I don't hope all of us crazy now. But I do hope all of people come back in a year or two. They leave from the market too long and if they come back too late they may be trapped in another GFC. Who knows?

    What if ARH could not get the fund? Possible but unlikely. Market is very strange. If some ones don't want to play in the market, usually most of market players would not play but once some want usually all would like to jump on the board. I like to hold cheap ticket for the crowd jump up onto desperately!
     
  4. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    ARH: Think twice but how?

    "You have heard about the rising price of coal and China's ever-growing hunger for the fuel. Now comes Australia's billionaire businessman Clive Palmer, with his Resourcehouse initial public offering.

    Tempted to jump on the bandwagon? Think twice," a article said. http://hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=1463516&msgid=8327363

    (wdongli: Is it good advice? Yes it is easy to tell some general logic or common sense but how to think twice when something happen? This is very important. To me it is good news.

    1. ARH's IO in the IO base that ResourceHouse tries to sell, is not too much but 1 billion Tonnes only.

    2. Once ResourceHouse starts the project, ARH's IO has the base value plus the synergistic value to it too.

    3. Some old shareholders of ARH, who bought before GFC have been in red for long time but if anyone who got the share around $0.023 would be very comfortable now.

    [​IMG]

    3.1> No losses but good enough margin of safety even Mineralogy would like to pay $0.302 before the IPO.

    3.2> Its price went up to $0.60 just because the rumor of the IPO then in my view.

    4. It is not a matter how to think twice but how could you identify the chances when the market is dismal or very bad. Of course there are catches if you buy in the bad time, that is what if the market is right? No one could give you the tip of this kind.

    You have to make your own minds and bet the right risks for right opportunities at the right time. I made wrong judgement on IMI, and then I have to be happy to see Mr Market takes away of my chips, right? If not, it is harmful to our health.

    5. Paying at $0.21 around much lower than the most of market players, big or small, set the base for me to dream how high it could shoot up!

    In HC somebodies cried that Palmer just only cares about his own interests but never care about the interests of small ones.

    How could he care about your interests? He hold his assets in all of winds and you just make the losses and stop the losses. Could you tell the difference?

    6. I don't need anyone cares about my interests. If I need I should run away from the market. Why? The market are the place for Masters in market playing game and the gamblers.

    I don't think twice to buy but I think how I could pay the least and then I could pay much less than Palmer if he dares to buy in the stock market as a pure investor. I thought I got this objective in ARH. Don't mistaken me. I would like to be a market player as Palmer. He is much, much better than me since he is businesslike investors and investor-like businessman.

    I am nothing-like so far but a dirty-cheap fish collector, a smelly, dirty, and reading-for-nothing old boy even I hold all happiness to study the market playing.
     
  5. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    ARH: funny views from the medias about RH IPO

    Resourcehouse has no business yet

    Beneath the glossy wrapping around Resourcehouse lie some plain facts: Those behind the deal aren't taking much risk here: not Palmer, its founder, not its Chinese suppliers; not the mainland buyer; and not the bankers. Only the minority shareholders.

    (wdongli: who should tell you the risks in the market? Yourself only!)

    Yes, investment is about taking risk. But you may be taking a risk for nothing because one of the company's core assets - a coal mine in Queensland - is designed more like a production centre for China rather than a profit centre for shareholders.

    (wdongli: no production no profit. The problem is not production center but how this center could be run economically for profit. If you could not see the profit, why? It is your own problem only.)

    Some basics first. Strictly speaking, Resourcehouse has no business yet. The only thing it has is the contractual rights to a coal mine in Queensland and an iron ore mine in West Australia granted by Palmer.
    (wdongli: this guy doesn't know mining industries at all but good writer with much better English than me)

    According to the Resourcehouse draft prospectus, posted on the Hong Kong Exchange website, the coal mine will not start any commercial production until December 2014.
    (wdongli: no quick money in any industries. He should work in a mine in China not Australia. Here the miners are paid as the emperors.)

    Resourcehouse is looking to raise US$3.4 billion to help fund the US$8.01 billion development of the coal mine.
     
  6. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    All in all, in the market, if you are true market player, it is your job to make the profit.

    If you still hate big boys make more than you, do your best to make better return rate than them. How about bums in the street? Don't care about them in the market since in the office you never worry about the bums in the street too.

    If you could do your job you at least could care about someone you like to . Who care about small market players? Themselves only! If you expect someones look after you, it is unfair to them! You fail your job and you should take the consequence.

    Don't forget if you fail you could be a new bum in the street!
     
  7. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Just some public information about ARH's IO and its location which is near that of ResourceHouse with the fact that Mineralogy has acquired some shares of ARH at $0.32 around in case if ARH is targeted for synergy(some market players worry Clive would sacrifice ARH, which is highly unlikely since 63% ownership is a big enough asset in ARH even he may not be eager to let ARH get its price close to its value very soon in strategic thinking):

    China First Iron Ore Project ? Resourcehouse Limited

    http://www.dmp.wa.gov.au/wardens_court/2010WAMW20.pdf

    The links are from Cloak in HC. Thanks for his very helpful posts here.

    ***
    Jimmy357 in HC gives very good points:

    What most of us are considering though is that once Citic Pacific gets into full production OPalmer's mineralogy will be getting circa $500m per qtr in royalties.

    Also when Resourcehouse floats they will have a considerable cash kitty for development of the proposed projects. Resourcehouse may also decide to make an offer (whether by scrip or cash or a combo of both) to takover ARH and develop it firt given all approvals are in place, it is closer to the coast etc etc.

    Given there is snr mgt crossover between Resourcehouse / ARH you would ahve to think there is a master plan there somewhere.

    While Resourcehouse may not directly benefit ARH straightaway it does provide a few more options for its development.