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Trading Aussie rushes into GFCII!

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 26th Sep, 2011.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
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    Perth
    Nothing could stop XAO and Aussies in XAO rushing into GFCII. Everyone hopes he could run quicker than anyone else out of this slaughter room!

    All of us focus on the scenario I: all race to zero. At zero what you get now are bonus.

    What about scenario II, III, or whatever you guess? Don't bother about those. The past 26 months have shown a very clear pattern:

    1. all of XAO race to the hell
    2. all of XAO will be in the hell

    The financial system will definitely crash onto ground! Why? Don't ask this stupid question and if you don't run you would die.

    Run, run, and run which is better to be rolled out by the rollers-coasters!

    Let's rush into GFCII ahead of the whole world!

    ***
    What? You want to buy more now?

    Why not if you could afford and could buy more after XAO rushes to 3000 or 2000 in GFCII?

    What if XAO is zero? Australia would be ghost land rather than only XAO is a stampede and ghost land.

    What no GFCII in a year? It is impossible.

    GFCII comes in first and sky falls down.

    No sky all would be gone without matter where you are!

    I lost the qualification to buy more, which is sad! I would buy more after GFCIII crash!

    It seems Asian is racing with XAO for GFCIII.

    ***
    Hi,

    exit is over there for GFCII

    GFCIII is the drama for China and all of the world into the hell

    No one thinks and any exits are the way for run

    [​IMG]
    Exit to hell!​

    Hell is better than XAO!

    ***
    If everyone in XAO would be in hell, I would like to pick up a spade to do anything for what I have put into XAO.

    [​IMG]
    Is it better than hell?​

    I would never run into the hell voluntarily.

    No exit to the hell if I am alive.

    I am thinking how to set up my last defending line so that I would not regret when XAO rushes up back to 5,000 after the exit to GFCII just bangs to be closed!

    No GFCII at all in a year!

    Is it possible? Possible but the chances is 50%! I would not bet for the hell with so high probability!

    ***
    Why don't you use DSP(digital signal process) to prove the feasibility of GFCII?

    It is a time to use life logic rather than rocket science!

    I just used up my cash reserve and this mistakes just need a job for extra money as my defending line if GFCII comes in! Could you find a job? In Australia if you want to work you can find a job.

    [​IMG]

    Why are there so many unemployed people? They could get payment from government and they never come to the hell in the stock market! They hate to work! I don't hate to work even I really want to work in the stock market!

    [​IMG]

    How much do you want? $20,000 per year is enough if I have to. I just don't want to see the black hole in the market sucks down what I have got! You know in the stampede, you are better do nothing! So why do you stick to the hell! You could change and then life would be better!

    [​IMG]

    A genius question: could you use rocket launcher to fire at a flying bird?

    Definitely but it is too expensive and just show how stupid you are!

    ***
    Asia is selling more; Australia is selling more; US dollars become flight to heaven; Banks in EU turn up; Mining and gold seems at the doorstep of hell.

    Where was the eye of GFC? Where is the eye of EURO deficit crisis? It seems the eye in Asia and Australia. And all of us know Aussie assets are high risky ones.

    [​IMG]
    Here is much safer!

    Reality is true and real. But I just could not figure out the logic that the flaming houses in Euro would be much safer than my houses in Perth.

    I guess I should put a fire on my houses. Is it legal in Australia? If someone tells me it is I would not surprised. A insane time makes insane human reaction!

    Who said he could know the universe but could not understand the crazy human kind?

    Don't try to understand the insane people but do what you have to do!

    I guess we run so fast since we have huge gas field and who knows they would not be on fire? Today you are lucky and tomorrow the gas could explode as Atomic bomb as those used in Japan in 1945.

    [​IMG]
    Resource especially gas or uranium = Atomic bomb?

    [​IMG]
    All possible! Fire could come here through the gas pipes!​

    Do you remember GFC? Aussie believed decoupling and then at last we were burnt terribly. We are not stupid! XAO would be the hell! If it would not we would try all to drag it into the hell!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 26th Sep, 2011
  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
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    Wisdom in pictures

    [​IMG]
    How could I be careful of the toes on the stock market today as they may be connected to the hell tomorrow?

    [​IMG]
    Are you insane to cry for the past in the market?

    [​IMG]
    What's your mind updating plan?

    Don't forget we need to think and then the logic would make senses!

    Otherwise in this irrationality exuberance, you would be in hell!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 26th Sep, 2011
  3. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
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    Stupid or intelligent?

    Market and crowd could be very stupid and very intelligent times by times, which depends on what mood it has. In recent years, it has more time to be stupid than intelligent. Some scholars explain the stupidity by a word, irrationality-exuberant and identify it usually happen when market has a hot or cold head. However it is also said that at extreme irrational time, it tends to go opposite in extreme. It actually acts as a pendulum, which just swing irregularly! So some said the market swing is a matter no one could timing.

    So some great market players try to use the bottom-up approach, or fundamental, or value approach to profit through buying and selling stocks. Even the process to decide which should be bought or sold, could be complicated but the basic idea is very simple:

    1. The business must make money and have made money for long time.

    That means the firm has been able to generate a solid return on its assets and on shareholders’ equity. If business doesn't make money, it could not have economic moat around it. Have you heard about litmus test? Making money is the litmus test for a business.

    Great business makes great money or profit.

    2. There are reasons or causes if a business could make a lot of money

    Does the business make the good money or bad money? If good why could it make? It is necessary to know the reasons and causes which could let you understand why is the company able to keep competitors at bay? What keeps competitors from stealing its profits?

    3. Some business just make a huge money in a year but lose all later as gamblers in Casino. So how long a firm could to hold off competitors, a few years or decades? It is important for you to decide how long you should hold it.

    4. A firm could not make profit and money if it has not a competitive structure. What is its business structure and others' ones. How do they compete each other? Is it a attractive sector or too many dogs for a fat or scarce chances for profit.

    All above is about what profit, how long to make the profit, why there are profit, and what living environment for a business. The idea is simple and very logic but to use it for real profit it needs a lot of work and you have to be a fool who like to find what you want listed above.

    The problem is no too many market players would like to do the job for what they want. Most of them lose the senses in logic. In the deep subconsciousness, we want the quick and easy money and then we have to swing over fences with the wind. We don't have ideas what is quality and what is craps. We don't know the basic. We just stand on the tops of this and that shabby shed to see the patterns of the wind and smell the fire from the remote. So when the market sentiment turns to be sour the people just run in stampede since they really don't know what would happen and what the price would give us discount or losses.

    We just worry about our own houses and run away from our own houses since the house in Europe are said to be on fire! Aussie could not do anything good before the fire of Euro could be said under some control. They are the hostages and enjoy to be so!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 27th Sep, 2011
  4. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
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    Perth
    How to weigh a share in stock market?

    [​IMG]

    We know the quality of shares are the underlying business or economies have to make the money, get the profit, and then generate the free cash flow in future. We know the value of a business is the present price of future cash flows. Or simply saying the more money does it make in future. The better does its share.

    However all of us are different and then all of us use different ways to get the feeling for future profit, the value, and then put us at the preset losers and winners positions. Some use the scales, home made or picked up from someone else. Some use the scale for the accurate measures for each penny from $1; Some for $1 from $1 or $2 for $1 and so on.

    Most of us are too busy and don't have time or desire to do the boring scaling of the profit. Even sometimes we do a lot of scaling work, market just gives a price much higher or lower than the ones shown in the scale. As the vote for Labor or Liberal, we have a common flag in our deep subconsciousness:

    [​IMG]

    So in each special timing point of the market, the prices are made by the voting rather than a huge scale for the future profits. It is quite logic and efficient. Who could show us a profit scale which could weigh the real time value of the shares? No one!

    Each voter has his own tastes to choose his scales and each scale could give roughly right reading around the value even the tolerance of each scale could be quite different based on the quality of the scales and the operators. When a lot, a lot of scales, exist, the market could filter out a lot of errors so we could be quite confident to say in this modern market, the price in normal time for the market as a whole, roughly represents its present value of the future cash flow.

    The problem is sometimes when the market as a whole become euphoria or panic or depressed, the market as a whole tend to throw away all of scales and run based on the guess where the wind or tsunami would go! You know what would happen after no scale but guess only in a extremely bad or good mood. Do you have one or two days in a year when you just see everything is gray and dark?

    90% market players are like the girl shown below now and any tiny bad things or disturbance could let them down into the hell:
    [​IMG]
    Look at me; Don't look down; Give me your hand; OK and all will be OK! Life is invaluable and don't risk it!

    In the bad mood we tend to do the stupidest things, which has been known by all of mental matured men and women. However in the stock market, few have the matured mind and most of the market players act worse than the babies when they see the flaming in Europe!

    When 95% of XAO votes for its death, XAO just could get one roughly right result, if it would close the door tomorrow, but extremely discounted. Want to get discount? Go to the shops which would close the door tomorrow and all have to be gone today!

    A question for genius who sell with their advanced system?

    Do you really think XAO would close the door?

    Do you really think no one want the resource, gold, and oil?
    You could help to push the price down but don't jump down into the hell!​

    Too many big boys push the price down with the hope they could cover their position in time. Too many retail boys jump down into the hell with cuts which need time and efforts to heal. A lot of big or little boys would be in hell if not forever! That is what volatility would result in!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 27th Sep, 2011
  5. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
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    Always ask a fatal question before buying?

    How could I be careful of the toes on the stock market today as they may be connected to the hell tomorrow?

    what does careful really mean?

    1. Attentive to potential danger, error, or harm; cautious
    2. Thorough and painstaking in action or execution; conscientious
    3. Protective; solicitous
    4. Full of cares or anxiety

    If you buy you will buy some risks, which is the potential danger, human errors, serious harm. You have to be cautious to choose what and when do you buy. Timing is not important but time means everything. When do you hit a ball at what angle with how big forces so that you would no exhausted too quick and too much. Could you be sure the ball would be hit by you and hit back at your head or hit you down? It is more important for no losses rather than stopping losses later. You have to be convinced you could make human errors at first and then make mistakes again to fail your stop losses!

    To hit at the right angle for best results, enough forces is necessary but prepare for the right angle when it appear for you to hit out needs thorough and painstaking in action or execution, such as updating your mind and let the prudence and caution into your blood and bone.

    It is a war place and everyone is playing the fire. Fire is risky if you don't have buffer or protective shield, your less solicitous action could burn you to death. Most of us become anxious after we are trapped in the market. As a intelligent service business, it is necessary to be careful and anxious when the warriors are cheerful or over-optimism. Actually you should be fearful when the market is cheerful and cheerful when the market could not find any hopes after it beaten again and again.

    Market is high efficient when it is not irrationality exuberant and the price should be quite close to the value. However it is not the cases in most of times. It is acting always as a pendulum which swings always. Too many clever people but ignorant and arrogant were swung out when the euphoria becomes depression!

    [​IMG]

    It is exciting, thrilling, and euphoric, but it could swing you out to the hell and sometimes collectively swing almost all out! It is magic pendulum to throw the greedy warriors into the hell! It does so very efficiently and effectively just as we see now!
     
  6. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
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    Perth
    It seems all of us know it is the end of equities. We always know it when the market crashes. We always know it when the hopes are destroyed again and again in the turbulence.

    Does XAO indicate the death of equities? The fact and reality is investors dumped shares of the so called risky assets, such as mining companies. We are loosely linked with China or tightly? In selling mood we believe the tight coupling. China may not escape fallout to the ground and it could be much quicker to the ground from a sharp slowdown in Europe and the U.S. growth.

    1. The world was moving toward a much weaker growth environment
    2. In those circumstances, Asia wouldn’t be immune.
    3. And so that, in turn, would bring back commodity prices

    Which sounds logic but any a little bit far away from the truth would result in insanity!

    When XAO rushes to GFCII last week, it assumed China and Asia would cut the resource demand much more than what you could get from the logic.

    ***
    China buys huge amounts of commodities. What if it cuts the amount hugely? We use our guess work to guide our action in darkness since no cake in the sky is a fatal issue for the crowd.

    1. Last week we had the third poor survey of Chinese manufacturing in as many months
    2. We have a bleak growth outlook from the U.S.
    3. All of the world at the same time started to worry about a Greek default which triggered heightened anxiety over future purchasing trends in a prospectively much weaker Chinese economy.

    Why now?

    Market players are ridiculous to believe if China would be good, it would immune from EURO and US shock, which is what happened before GFC; if China would be worse, it would tightly couple with EURO and US and the hell in EURO would push the riskier China and then Australia into the hell first! That is what happened now! Could you be convinced they are right?

    When a lot of blinds touch the elephant in a wild full of risks:

    1. Chinese growth at 2 digits is at risk
    2. If not necessary the Chinese government would not step in with major stimulus measures in the case the GFCII would not be in sight.
    3. The highly controlled political system could crash when GFCII comes in.
    4. China needs the global financial system to hold the very fragile property sector together.
    5. When all of the money take the flight to the US assets, US default dramas would be gone and China would just have the ghost empty houses everywhere.

    ***
    Let's invert a little bit against the doom-gloom view:

    1. If Greece and EU are default, China would be affected heavily but it should not be in default. Actually when XAO is rushing into GFCII, it seems China would be in default before Greece and EU go into the hell.
    2. After Greece and EU are default, if they have to, other nations are still need to get the necessities. The question is who can be sure China would no use its huge reserves to stabilize economies. If anyone plays in the market he should know what cash reserves means in worst time.
    3. Resource booming is the result of the global economy structure shifting. It could be paused but should not be stopped since in China people know the current economic achievement has been achieved with the tears, bloods, and swears. How many peasant workers have contributed too much for too little?
    4. Chinese government has spent a lot to stimulate the economy in GFC but it has not deficit crisis! We don't just have a China but billions of Asian middle classes. Why oil price are still higher than $70?
    5. Cyclical matters affect economic fundamental in short term but the demand for long term would correct the over-selling of the resource shares

    Market selling and XAO rushing into GFCII are matters of the market crowd mood or sentiment. Something is bad but highly likely push the irrationality exuberant. Could you say we are in the lowest part of bottom channel for market?

    No one dares to say so but the market is underpriced seemingly is a sure matter. Fear is more powerful than greed to push the price up or down. 26 months of the correction in XAO had done all to put it in hell even everything could be discounted more and more for sometimes.

    I want to buy now so that I would not sell! If the paper value goes lower and my cash reserve is reduced to the level I have to get the cash I would pick up the spade for what I have to do!

    Market is just a huge pendulum and it is not the sky!

    I would like to be hit down by the sky rather than rolled out to the hell by this pendulum while it is moving into its negative extreme end!

    Let's pry for the safety of the sky, Amen!