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Trading Aussies why do you so fearful?

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 4th Nov, 2011.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    XAO has acted as rollers-coasters for more than 2 years. Less and less traders dare to be optimism. Opening the paper and reading the words here or there, few words can make the people hopeful.

    TLS is a high yield stock but what if its price down further and what if all of the world drop into the hell. We have 7 billion people, who just consume too much but produce too little, let alone rich is becoming richer and poor is becoming poorer. Aussies are lucky only otherwise why there were so big flood here and there. Greece was spoiled and doesn't feel happy since EU asked them taking the austerity. Corrupt nation is holding a gun to the EU's head. If EU dies where Australia could go? Aussies have nothing but the waiting-to-crash houses and a lot of resources no one would have money to buy. Booming let Aussies worry the big holes after booming. Bust let Aussies worry too.

    Do wonder why DOW and FTSE100 could perform better than XAO? It seems people whose houses on the fire feel better. Greece makes the world worry but they could say they do care about democracy than the stupid market and economies. Aussies seem enjoy to jump over fence to guess their fate over the remote smoking. Do wonder what could let Aussies feel better. If EU becomes stable, I guess Aussies would find other matters to worry. What if China tips off? What Northern Korea throws a atomic bomb onto Japan? XAO seems have no tomorrow.

    Do wonder what could make Aussies have a few days with good mood! Is it a sure matter if you are rich you have to worry too much? Greece doesn't worry but want to go its own way. US doesn't worry even people ever worry about its default. EU doesn't worry even debt make Aussies worry and Asia worry. Cannot find the logic why people say US and EU is losing their advantage since Asia and Australia just lead the market down to the hell. Is the market a barometer for their economies? It seems not! All of Aussies in the market follow the wind and emotionally try their best to show emotion would decide the future.

    It is irrational time for XAO. I just feel hopeless on hopeless XAO and Aussie market players. I just decide to go a little bit far ahead than these hopeless Aussies. I just took a job interview to get an Engineer spade and wait for all of these Aussies have no any energy to cry. They need to be shocked out of soul and then XAO would return to normal.

    Cry and sell! After you sell all you would cry for nothing if the train leave away from your station without you! Could you give any better topics? No! It is because Aussie market players would spoil anything with bad mood. Now no one can do anything except to setup your last defending line in case Aussies break down the rock bottom before anyone else in this world! Me? I would not cry as these hopeless Aussies who declare they have some advanced selling systems to get evidence in the mirror or guess for the future.

    Would you believe Aussies would stop crying? I believe so since Aussies still have the best economies in this world, even I don't know when they would not cry for this round and am very confident that they would cry again under appropriate conditions! It is not bad to cry with the piled up resources anyway just as someone could cry loudly onto the pile of moneys. All of Aussie market players seem believe Aussies only have the risk assets but I just could not accept this assertion even I know next time I should run away from the market first when these Aussies become extremely cheerful.

    These Aussie warriors are experts or best of lemmings in this lovely world. They could jump down to the cliffs based on the remote smoking and leave their houses behind. Sometimes I just very appreciate Greek people than Aussies. Greece would like to fight for the democracy in the street rather than to get the expensive aid to get things in order. Aussies just know jump over fence and fight against themselves.

    Who are more hopeless! No freedom to spend? Greece rather die. No freedom to jump over fence Aussie market warriors rather take hara-riki. All of them are crazy! Really? Aussie market warriors believe they have some advanced systems to let them jump over cleverly but they just lose more.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 4th Nov, 2011
  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Why best economies make the worst cryers?

    It seems logical that best economies should get the people in best mood, right? I do feel it is not right. Why? Sometimes I found some people just could not be happy in their best time but feel depressed. They always want or expect somethings which are not available and out of their control.

    I just could not see any individual could control the population not bigger than 7 billions but some do feel thrilled or depressed about it. If you feel it would threat the world and future, you have a lot of options to change it rather than use it as a tool to depress yourselves and others. However sometimes we do hope we are depressed and others follow. From psychological point of views, I understand them but it is real bad for the money and health. You worry about things you could not control and then you would make wrong judgment in the market. All we know what bad judgment could make.

    Over history there’s been something like a default progress curve – gradual increases over time, building to critical mass moments that drive periods of explosive innovation and change. However all of us just could be changed in some limitation. It suggests that change and the need to compensate and adapt inherently foster stress. Actually IT, financial systems, everything has changed in the speed no one could see before 1970s. The resource booming and GFC crash has disordered the minds of a lot Aussies market warriors, who come to the market for money only but not to adapt for the change. Economies change; Market change; everything change but our minds no change; So feel confused, frustrated, painful, thrilled, and so on.

    Societies and individuals have a default “coping curve” for historical advances. We’re wired to manage and adapt to a certain degree of change over time. It’s important to understand that it requires energy, at both the personal and societal levels, to manage stress. The coping curve isn’t cost-free. Perhaps if we understood the dynamic completely it might lend itself to a sort of three-step analogue to Newton’s third law – progress leads to an equal amount of stress which requires an equal amount of psychic energy to balance.

    There’s a “normal” equilibrium level where progress and stress is assimilated and managed by coping mechanism. That is said if you can cope with the change you feel good and if you can not cope with you feel hopeless. Aussie market warriors just fail to cope with the changes from IT booming and the historical resource demands and are completely shocked into the hell by GFC, EU debt crises, China booming/bust prospective, and its own two speed economies.

    Hopefully RBA could keep cool mind and keep the bubble or bust within a scope so that Aussie market warriors could find time to cry and adapt themselves. In desperation and depression it is the best way to cry and then let stress gone for individuals and it is best way to launch wars or erupt revolution to get the stress gone. All of riches lose all and all come to the same start points would let everyone feels equal even all are losers!

    So some great people wanted us to sympathy each other economically and want introduce rational second wealth distribution to cope with the social stress. Some want to see all are in the hell equally as Marx did. Any society could not make everyone is relatively rich to other social members even it could make everyone absolutely rich than the poor 100 years ago. But it could make everyone is absolutely poor if a society allow its stress erupted in revolution and social revolts.

    So in this sense, more Aussie market warriors cry better for the society to cope with its stress in the fast changed world. Decoupling went too far and then we had GFCI. GFCI went too far and then we had V-shape recovery. V-shape recovery went too far and then we had the consolidation. XAO led the world into GFCII too early and then it climbed up even not exciting. Why don't cry if you feel not good? It is good for you!

    However you have to remember that it is not cost-free for your crying and if you are in deep depression you would make trouble for yourselves. If you are wise you should try to wipe out your tear and think how to be survival, revival, and prosperous ahead which even could not be sure you would be prosperous since you could be over-optimism for your dog days.

    Market doesn't believe the tears and never cares about equality! If it is unfair to you, you have lost half in the market.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 4th Nov, 2011
  3. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Anyway having got a spad in hands

    Feel much confident after I got an job offer as an Engineer. It tells that the economies are not too bad especially it is an offer after I work as a full-time market student for three years. The economies in WA are booming even all of the world worry about the recession.

    The economies seem much better than the time of IT bust. By that time I worked in a IT darling company but IT bust pushed it against the wall and in a day 800 Engineers were sacked without personal mistakes. When the trend changes no one could feel good. In the bad time no any individuals you could complain and a lot of Engineers had changed their life course after.

    Market is a huge rollers-coasters. It could put all in the market to the hell or shoot them into the sky in our surprises. I believe I am an fool and tend to make some silly mistakes. I would take this spade very seriously and pay off my debt back while the bullish mood comes back. I would not come back into market as a full-time student before I am sure I have got my last defensive line strong enough. To be successful financially, we need two weapons, one is bond-type investment and another is stock-type investment. We need to be balanced between them.

    Only one thing upset me a little bit. To take a spade I have to take the responsibility for this spade. To take the responsibility I have to work much harder to catch up with the new challenges in tech. This will need the time. However after reading and pondering for two years especially after April market craziness, I have changed myself greatly. This spade would give me the capability to hold what I have hold now, which could mean a lot of positive surprises when XAO gets its consciousness back.

    I would take any further share buying as taking a spade for life. Have to admit that I never think so before. It definitely is part of reasons why I could make so many mistakes in so short time and then lost all of paper profit. A lesson I should never forget! Could we say poor becomes poorer partly because poor fail to control their emotion? I guess so.

    Anyway, life is not too bad at least in WA!
     
  4. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Options and which option you choose?

    In the life and market, we all time by time have changed environments, which forces us to face different options to choose without matter we like or dislike.

    Yes, we all could complain and find all of reasons to prove we are completely right and the changed environments are out of our control. We could easily find one problem after another caused by US, EU, China, and Rich, and feel we are still perfectly right even we lose the shirts in the market. That is perfectly fine and fully understandable. You have lost your shirts; you have felt painful; you have become poorer; and then you have the right to cry.

    However crying and complaining could not change the consequences from the past and also could not get anything better in the future. You need to question yourselves and find the ways to get out of the traps and then you could find a way to avoid selling on fire. Usually even not always when the market makes most of people crying, the damages have been done while the risk to crash the rock bottom is still very high.

    Do you want to sell on fire(if you didn't sell in April 2011, you have to answer this question)? Do you want to hold in the risk that the rock bottom would be broken, which is being questioned by most of market warriors? These two questions are roots in the market current reality and paradoxes from this reality. Of course if you are perfect system players and never allow your human errors take control you are exceptional and you could crying or cheering as you wish.

    I don't want to sell on the fire and believe the damage has been made. I don't believe most of Aussie market warriors have guts to stay in the market after XAO has had nowhere to go but lead the world to rush into GFCII in last 28 months. What could be sold or who would sell in GFCII? XAO has put it in GFCII at the beginning of 2 Aug 2011.

    I don't look down the risks that the rock bottom could be crashed down if EU default and the global financial system at stake. I have felt very strongly I need to build my last defensive line strong enough unless the modern global system could get into hell. It is a failure of the human kind and not one of myself.

    It is useless and hopeless for anyone who just know how to find problems. We need solution in our work scope. Changes always mean cost and only wise selection could reduce the damages from the change and open the opportunities for future. Getting a old spade is just a start. You have to review the functions of the old spade. It means you have to work hard to refresh your memory and catch up with your mates to get your job done.

    In the life and market we all have abnormal or normal times. Abnormality means damages, risks, and opportunities. Nothing is sure but we only can start from somewhere we are confident and ensure we could use our bond type asset for our cash inflow and be sure we could have some stock-type asset for future.

    Exuberance of anything is abnormal including hard working. Bad exuberance need hard work to fix the problems. Good exuberance need hard work to lock the money into your vault for the bad exuberance. Usually good exuberance is followed by bad exuberance under the name of rationality but really caused by exuberance of fears. It is a necessary step to let the life and market back to normal: optimism but not crazy!

    Let the market warriors be crazy under the name of rationality. I have made some silly mistakes without locking my profit. I would work hard for three months and get the defensive line as strong as I can make. Anyway it is the time for me to refresh my knowledge base in hardware, firmware, industrial process management, power/energy management, control systems, and then I could focus on the task for efficiency and productivity as hole digger. Job is always a job.

    We have to do what we should do. Unfortunately in the market we tend to forget business is always business. Do wonder what's 7billion people to my market playing. Do wonder could we be poorer or richer if we just cry and sleep with the problems we could not solve!

    If I didn't sell BKP at $0.02 and other winners in my portfolio I would not have enough cash reserve. If I don't get a spade I would be in pressure for enough cash inflow. Anyone fails in this market environment would mean sale on fire. If you want to kill you in business you just need to sell on fire.
     
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  5. Billv

    Billv Getting there

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    wdongli

    Mate, fear is everywhere and more so in Europe and the US where unemployment has hit the roof and thousands of people lost their homes and live in tents relying on food coupons.

    The western world is not in good shape. We are fortunate here to still have a job and a roof over our head. However we don't produce much here anymore, our good fortune is directly linked to our exports of raw materials and if those exports stop we're gone....

    And now that I've got your attention, I don't know if you are aware of this, but people don't like to read more than a few sentences so if you keep on writing page after page, none will read it. I thought of letting you know so you're not wasting your time.

    cheers
     
  6. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Thank you Billv for your kind advices. If my words annoy you I say sorry. Do hope you know it is difficult for me to change as anyone else.

    If you like to short you would go to short always. If you like to long you would long your way always too. So most of times, market changes and we don't change, which result in gap between the imaged and real world.

    When the gap exists and we are in the market, we have great chances to lose shirts and personal tastes mean nothing.
     
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  7. Billv

    Billv Getting there

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    These days (as you know) there is too much volatility so it isn't hard to even lose your shirt. That's if you're a trader which I'm not.

    I'm a "buy and hold" person so I rely on natural growth but these days corporate greed has gone too far and the affects are felt all round the globe so I'm not convinced that I should be investing in company shares at present.

    I'd rather put my money in a term deposit and settle for a down to earth return of 2% or so above inflation
     
  8. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Yep, fully understand and it could be very wise choice. I am a little bit complicated: in one side, I am a long term investor in residential property, and in another side I am a bargain hunter for rock-bottom fishing in stock market, which force me to learn how to balance between the profit and risk.

    Sometimes I trade but definitely am not a day trader anymore since I do find no any system could be fault-free even too many losers declare their system perfect. I write to get involvement with the trading and investment society but I fully understand I could be seriously wrong.

    We must be mentally independent for our own business and set up proper mental system for our own even we could be more happy since we have comrades for the same cause, to get the profit into the pocket. It is not because we are bad but it is because we have to do our jobs in the market.

    In the market it is not shameful if we lose money but it does be shameful we try to protect our mistakes since we are not just wrong but stupid. I don't like to synchronize myself with the market sentiment anymore even it means I could not get any one as my comrades.

    Market is a war place. Without matter how great or little we feel, we have to get the profit for long term. War always recognizes and remember the winners or losers. I still don't know enough how to win in the war for long term but I do find the writing here just forces me more conscious and intelligent.

    No quick and short course to make fortune, which is true everywhere, in offices, businesses, markets, and invested. I am retreating strategically to take a spade and is working on to use the spade in best for my responsibility. However I would hold my portfolio in these ruins.

    I am always optimism in life. I could be beaten down by anyone including Mr. Market but I would try my best to get up. It is all about life I believe. Dogs have dogs days. We should not waste the days for us and also don't forget to lock the profit when our days become too much. I never and ever have bad days when all of the market cry for the sky if I could lock the profit from my days!

    My problem is never bad days for the dogs like me. These days often than not give me the chances to buy at the price around lowest range of the rock bottoms. These are the days all of other dogs desperately burn the money on fire. My problem is always when all of the dogs become too excited and I become crazy too. I tend to refuse to lock the profit when the dogs cheer. Why? I allow myself to be excited with other market dogs.

    Seriously I don't mind all of the market cry but I do worry when all of market cheer I would not wise enough to lock my profit. Since April 2011, I have a lot of night to be right up and wonder why I am so stupid to follow the crowd or market lemmings to the cliff even the bottom is not too far from the place I get in.

    Buying and holding needs conditions to win. Could you tell what conditions for your wise buying and holding? I would like to learn.

    Why do I write so long? I need to make choices for myself to rebuild my lattices of my mental network which could fit into the war situation. I don't believe a civilian could be a good service businessman in the war place without training and exercises. I respect anyone who write in short or long wisely and intelligently. All of wisdom and intelligence are simple but hard to get under complicated conditions and emotional consequences.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 7th Nov, 2011
  9. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    If things turn to be bad...

    There are a few scenarios if things turns too bad:

    1. Usually things was too good to be true some times ago.
    Time to sell all! Don't tell you anything about "buying and holding!"

    2. Rationality without notices by crowd came back to the market while market warriors cheered for their party and counted the paper profit.
    Still good time to sell all!

    3. Peak had been built and correction was in course but the market as a whole was still crazy.
    Are your head hot? Cool it down!

    4. Crash happened with complicated market sentiment
    Are you anxious and in denial? Get out!

    5. At last the whole market comes into great depression.
    If you are still in? You have only one option: hold! Sale on fire is the most effective way to burn your house!

    6. No news could be good enough and guess and emotions are the driving forces for market direction.
    Keep yourself busy to set up the last defensive line. If you have sold at peak to look around for shopping and remember never and ever use off you cash reserve and have not enough cash inflow.

    7. No any fundamental facts to support bullish views. All of market refuse to view anything more than days or weeks.
    Buy more for holding forever!

    8. As in a collapsed tunnel, people is in stampede to exit first, more casualties is produced in stampede, more and more people give up to look for the exit, all of people who have fragile souls feel hopeless and give up, some, very few, admit the severity of the environment, cool their minds down and try to find the way survival, and then start to look for the exit...

    Don't expect you could be lucky but get the margin of safety for each of your new buying. What if the rock bottom crashes down?

    9. These tough souls for exit are thought insane since they seem do what is impossible.

    Not all of these tough souls could be successful for the exit and it is possible all of them could fail. However if any chances to the exit is there these tough souls would have chances to get out of the collapsed tunnel.

    It is the same as in the war: human errors could destroy the great armies.

    Don't tell anyone you are great and your system could save you. It is not true and you only could be roughly right and try all to avoid absolutely wrong.

    ***
    Who are you? Could you be successful to survive? Could you get lessons to get better under the rising Sun if you are lucky enough?

    Started to catch up to use the complicated Engineering tools as my life spade to survive in this market dark tunnel for satellite communication for remote WA mining sector. After 3 years as a full-time student, I put me all into this spade. Hopefully I could realize a important bond investment, the labor value for years and hold my stock type investment for the days all of us could be in the open field to enjoy the Sun.
     
  10. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Cry in another stampede?

    Italy's bond yield soared to 7.41% from around and EU and US market in another stampede. There are always some reasons fundamentally and there are always people to rationalize the stampede. It is a bad season in years if not in decades.

    Could you expect that the market crowd to move in difference this time? In the rock bottom, nothing is clear except the darkness and uncertainty. However there are only two options for market:

    1. This rock bottom achieved in the beginning of August would be intact
    2. This rock bottom would be broken.

    Could you tell how about this rock bottom? People said it only could be called in retrospect. However could you trust your system outputs which just are made by the future facts? The GFC came in too quickly and V-shape shot up also too quickly. If GFC just hurt you and you missed the recovery, you are the losers.

    I feel it is highly likely that the rock bottom would be there and the market should climb up the wall of worries. However we are just humans and we should not put our head on the slaughter table and cry.

    If the rock bottom is broken but sky would be saved, anyone in the market would lose some paper money if he could hold his position. If sky falls down, all of people would suffer in the pitch darkness. If the rock bottom is there in your surprise, people with their last defensive line would enjoy the recovery.

    Work hard for my last defensive line. So far so good. The spade would increase my cash reserve for two years' living expenses in 6 months. If in two years, the sky is still there, I believe I should have chances to run under the Sun.

    In the war sometimes, you just need to get your last defensive line stronger and stronger before you could launch a new movement for the victory. Cheer for the sky and protect yourself with strong cash inflow and cash reserve.
     
  11. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Don't count your days before you die!

    Don't count your days before you die! It sounds crazy but if you would die and your counting could not help you and any ones around you.

    Don't give up to find your cures even you know you would die tomorrow. It sounds crazy too. Counting the days is hopeless. Why do you put yourself in hopeless?

    What is market doing? It scares people around the world crazy. They count their days to die financially. They give up to build their own defensive line and find opportunities for themselves.

    What could you get from predict darker days ahead in this dismal market? Just upset yourselves for nothing. Let it go its own way!

    Another day you are still alive financially. Congratulation! Life is good.
     
  12. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Why did XAO refuse to lead GFCII again?

    Why were the shorters in XAO? Why didn't they sell and force XAO to lead the world into GFCII? Why are the retail warriors crying without enough energy anymore? Different people at different angles could give different opinions but no one could give absolutely right answers.

    I do feel the warriors just have cried too long for all of the matters could let them shed the tear as much as they could. Crying is not a easy matter and it consumes the energy too. Have you seen a strong baby could cry days and nights for 28 months? At last all of realities would become things which are normal and acceptable.

    Crying is a very emotional matter and emotion just could not last too long. Sooner or later people need the hopes and lights. We could jump into the valley of death and we also could jump out from the pitch dark tunnel.

    It is very important for a bargain hunter to know this fact if you really don't want to be synchronized with the warriors. In Australia who don't know EU debt crisis and don't know there are a lot of warriors in XAO have lost their shirts? All of warriors have been consumed by Mr Market very much.

    1. Someone like me is die-hard to hold what they have
    2. Most of Warriors have sold on the fire
    3. Some sold before May are thinking to get some shares in hand.

    In my hometown, the coldest days are just in the early spring. When everyone else curses the coldest wind on his face, the farmers have started to move all of things to the field and get ready to put the seeds into the soil. 2011 would be recorded as one of very bad years in its history. There were natural disasters, US default drama, Japan Reactor damaged in tsunami, EU debt crisis, and so on.

    Too many curse rich resource in Australia as people curse the piles of gold in their backyard. I could not see the risks of the pile of gold as I could not see the resource. RBA is very cautious and Aussie local financial system is sound. I do feel ridiculous when people call Aussie assets as risky ones.

    RBA does worry about the bubbles and it could reduce to interest rate to zero before all of others have to issue more paper money into the air. Too many worry about China tipping off, which is possible but unlikely in my view. It is a bonus to this world and no war in the scale as Vietnam War; No Soviet Union atom bombs over the Advanced Economies; No 1.4 billion people just would want everyone is the same and equal. These new generations in Western world just don't know the history but believe they could predict the future.

    V-shape recovery made a lot of people regret. Who could say the warriors rushed into GFCII at the beginning of August would not be regret in future? Are we in a new era, when nothing is hopeful? I am working with my spade to build my last defensive line. I believe old warriors would have not guts to come back but more new warriors would jump in. Anyway all of humans want to be independent financially even few know how to get it.

    When you cry for "rich becomes richer" have you got your gut to question yourselves why you become poorer? As individuals, you have to be prudent and never follow the poor to burn the money or gamble for bigger money. As a society it has to use wealth redistribution to make the poor could get their mouths filled. Too many have empty months are always risky to all in any society! Nothing is new but the wind and fad could be and you lose your shirts.

    In this dream land, if you could not afford a $200,000 houses(not all of houses are at price of $400,000 or $1,000,000), why don't you work a little bit harder for your first home house but spend $40,000 for a fancy car? Too many just want to lay down on the senior pensions! Some of my tenants just complain the social security is crap but sometimes I do find they are craps about budget(I am bad in budget but they are much worse than me) even I agree the government has its duties for the poor people!

    They can speak better English than me but they don't have the right life attitude. Money is not everything but you should work for your loves and yourselves if you are not rich enough. Soviet Union gone because all didn't have motivation to work. China could get so far just because all don't want to be poor as before. Greece gets its debt crisis just because all could spend more than they made.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 12th Nov, 2011
  13. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Is life good if you are in deep bipolar disorder?

    In 3 days, DOW went down 360 first and then went up 360 so far and the whole world sentiment wend down/up correspondingly. What do you feel now? Dizzy or frustrated? I guess you feel both. Why not? Who could sustain this kind of twisting? If you are in this rollers-coasters with fragile guts, you would be in bipolar disorder deeply. You are human and how could you be not fearful?

    [​IMG]

    You are too clever to sense the smoking in the remote Italy. You really could not know what really happen there but guess. The more you guess the more dizzy and frustrated you are. Now what do you feel? Don't feel too excited as you feel you could die when the rollers-coasters brought everything down a few days ago.

    In life and market, some times the more you run the more damages you make for yourselves. Don't tell me your system could work in all of times. It would not. No one has the holly grail. You and me too. Once you know that you would think in prudence and hold when everyone runs hopelessly.

    Have your mom told you "don't run in crowd and play the fire," baby? Don't forget 101 of common senses and life logic. If you follow your mom's instruction, you still could fall down but no one would crush you into pieces. These clever market warriors just don't know logic 101. What could you expect for them?

    Poor becomes poorer with some home-made or expert-made rocket launchers. When they aim at the birds in the sky they forget the launchers could move backward to beat the owners down or kill them.

    Lessons? Could you get your lessons? Do you know the market is two-way at any given time? Let's the warriors run and you just need to run about near your corners. Of course, if you are clever you would ignore the logic 101 and you could be extremely successful. If so, you have all of the right to cheer!

    Cheer for the rollers-coasters and good to see it rolling out all of warriors into the hell! Do you get your service team ready to save these desperate and depressed warriors? Before you send your team into the field, please invert, invert, and invert for different scenarios in this war!

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 12th Nov, 2011
  14. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    :mad::p:mad:;):D:eek::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::cool::cool::cool:
     
  15. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Why could Western World be advanced so far?

    It is a question I asked after I first read "the wealth of nations" at my 19 just after China opened its door and wanted to get into the uncharted water in the capitalism market economies. Why were all of communism nations poor and really poor?

    My conclusion(not absolutely understand all) was that

    1. The old system had made most of people in the society extremely poor without matter what you wanted or did.
    2. Revolution was the only way to stop the old system and introduce a new system
    3. Communism was a dream-driven system which invoked so wonderful images in the sky for heaven
    4. It was so powerful that when communism mixed with the political realism, that is to use the riot with the flag for heaven in this real human world
    5. However human world never could be a heaven with the reasons I just could not figure out.
    6. So in communism nations all of the workers were the nominal masters(but in reality they are pigs) and when too many masters in a crowd room they would not focus on their work but how to get the bonus for themselves as masters. No high enough efficiency and productivity all of the masters have to share limited resources so corruption were unavoidable.
    7. So Pig Chiefs hit each other for their own power and all of nominal masters struggled just for a hand of food and to be alive.

    Capitalism is never a good system and equal to everyone, but it is best match to our human nature. Even the bloody fundamental capitalism generated two world wars but it had increased the national wealth greatly in Western World even each penny has the blood and tears. Human doesn't just want the money and he has his dream too and rich society tend to get rid of the cruelty from the fundamental capitalism. It is nice but tends to be in its another extreme.

    Unfortunately people in Western World tend to spend more than they deserve. That is why Greece has debt crisis and nearly all of Western Nation have the similar problems. This has to be corrected but how? A society should be stable and like to work hard, try hard to get the chances, and intelligently balance the spending and production.

    Capitalism doesn’t give the people what they want. It gives them what they deserve. Socialism could not spend all from rich on the poor, which need rich to make more to get the poor good enough without let a society lose the motivation for better society. Capitalism usually does so with such a long delay that few people connect cause with effect but it has to come with crises.

    It is the same as that all of losers in the market have to take the risks and most of people would fail in the market since they don't deserve. However it does provide the motivation for generations and generations for chances and some could be very successful and all of the balanced society become better off. When I put my feet unto the soil in England, I did felt it was the heaven land rather than the heel of the poor workers. Actually communism didn't promise too much in material(but beef and potato) even they said the economy and materials would be the base of the nation and world.

    When you put your feed on the market, you just could get what you deserve. Are you really deserve to do nothing but click your keypad for your living? Seriously no trustful and no enough cash inflow and cash reserve you don't deserve so. No wise vision and strong guts you don't deserve so. No organized, analytical, disciplined, and self-reliant, you don't deserve so. Of course if you want to get more you have to be advanced in skill and tech. But what kind of skill and tech could fit to you?

    I always take the "poor become poorer" as funny words which said by some market players. Why do the whole Greece become poorer? They deserve so. Do they deserve so forever? It is after EU and itself. For EU, it is a matter of the stabilization. For Greece at least now it is about survival. Why have the Western World had the debt crisis? It deserves so too. No one could spend more than they could make for too long. However anyone if expect it could be achieved by stop "poor becomes poorer" is wrong. Poor deserves poor and society has the responsibility to let poor survival and have chances not to be poor. Poor at last only could not be poor by themselves. You get a lottery price of $10,000,000 but you spend $2,000,000 every year, you would be poorer and who can stop you?

    Don't cry too desperately and too loudly. Even EU crashes down rich would try to do right at least not be poorer too much and poor would be poorer. The key is rich worry about their money. The poor don't know how to manage their own matter. Good thing is the modern civilization braces the open society and have produced so many high educated people who at least have higher labor value. Some wise and lucky ones would get the chances to be very richer too from their very poor background.

    This is a vibrant world and it never is so vibrant before. We have a world anyone if lucky could get some chance as Bill Gate and Andrew in FMG show. Are they super men? Definitely not! Are they wise men? I never question that. Are they extremely lucky? Definitely! Bill Gate if born in Russia and China, would have English problems as me if he could not have chances to open the business in US. It is the same as that to Andrew.

    How about me? Before my 45 I was lucky enough as a man born in China. I had got all of the chances the society could give to me in my living circle. How about the time after 45? I am extremely unlucky, stupid, less knowledgeable and wise in most of time about market, economy, and human natures. So I held $400,000 paper profit until it turned to $300 about. So I ignored the causes when XAO hung on there between 4500 - 5000 before April and lost most of my paper profit again.

    However it is full of chances in this modern world with the corresponding risks to each individual with good education and great ambition. Most of them would fail since lucks are few in life but it is good for a society. How about the crises? It forces the people to think about the bad side of leverage. It would correct the mistake from the over bought debt. It could be overdone but capitalism just open the the chances for anyone who like to buy cheapness and some would buy at rock bottom. Any overdone has short life since it means the gap of real and imaged world in our mind.

    It is never easy to make money and not all deserve the big money. So far I could say I just don't deserve so since I could not make right decision at the right time. If you don't have mind to get right time and right decision at the right time, without matter who you are or how you think about you, you are not deserve. Feel painful is understandable. Cursing others and environment would make you more painful and losses. You need be right people at the right time for right things. Someone said if you are not insane under some conditions you could be Mr. President of US. Of course you must be young and ambitious, which are never primary instincts only.

    Do wonder whether these insane people, who cry for the sky, EU, US, and China, know the reasons why they cry. Do what you can to find the chances. Get lessons from your mistakes. Be sure you know you could not get all what you want since you could be wrong! Be sure to hold for question your chances before jump in! Be sure you are the master to get the chances with great protection. No chances to a dead man or woman! Why do you cry if it just makes you poorer? You deserve so! If you don't want you should stand up and do what you should!

    What should you do within the scope you can do? Don't know and don't want to know! It is hopeless even you feel very clever! Don't beat anyone else in the market before you could beat yourself up right at night which is not to be clever and hit your head against war in deep bipolar disorder but be wiser.

    Wisdom is not about skills and tech but how you can be self-awareness and environment-awareness to use and find right skills and tech for your goals in right behavior. It needs to have faith about capitalism, open society, and your own which give us the capability to correct our own. Capitalism is canny and never go forward always. It could pause or retreat and then you should do so too!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 13th Nov, 2011
  16. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Hold the spade to watch out into the market!

    Job is job and put a lot of time into it. Less time is put into market but feel much better. In the storm few could see what really will happen. Where will EU go? Is the market bottom on the rock? No one seems able to tell. Could you?

    Bargain hunters have been fried on the market fire. Today you feel it is OK but tomorrow it acts worse. You bought for profit today but your signal forces you to stop losses. Somedays are the days both of the bums and genius lose the money. No trend at all and then it is so vain to grip up the wind to put into the mouths.

    It is so clear that if the bottom is not on the rock no one could win. The rollers-coasters is rolling in high speed and it is hard not to be rolled out if not into the hell. The problem is no one dares to day where it would stop and even it stops where your cars would be, higher or lower than you expect in days.

    [​IMG]

    Where are you now? Do you know? Could you trust the frame? I trust it but I just don't know where it will go next few days or months! It looks as the picture shows but who knows what ECB will do next? It would roll out most of warriors out and then it would be up again. Don't say I am telling you hold forever. I don't trust you could in the roller coasters and go up forever!

    The market cars are designed insanely that no windows at all. Then if you push the botton to open the door, you would be thrown out without matter where you car is. So too many open the doors at wrong time always... I don't want to open the door if I feel it is running.

    Don't want to be rolled out into the hell? Hold tightly and let all of others into the hell first. The roller-coasters stop on the rock floor? Don't hurry to say so since the speed if high, no one could say so certainly. Could it stops tomorrow? Good luck and it is your turn.

    ***
    In IT boom and bust I took the roller-coasters from extremely low position to the extremely high point and then followed it down to where I came from.

    The dropping down from April intermediate high position, the the last higher flat postion similar as that you could see from the picture to now rattling in the flat, surprised me a lot at first. Never felt so bad, actually worse than that in IT roller-coasters. The reason is in IT time I understand the market and warriors little. Now I know what my problem is. When you know you are not good you feel worse.

    Actually in GFC I did the same as I did now. I started to buy at the ending of Oct 2008 but worse thing was that this time I allowed cost run and cash reserve gone. Now I get my position and hold a spade without worring about selling on fire.

    The people in the market are too clever not to jump over the fence. But the winners have to hold from extremely low to extremely high. What if XAO back to 5000 in two years? What if EU break into pieces as before? Historically Europe never was a dominant force when it worked together. After all settles down, life has to go forward. Some black swans would surprise all again. It is not new and all of warriors woudl repeat their mistakes again.

    I hold my positon to wait to the settling down. Quite enjoy the Satellite Constellation system and send info to anyone at anywhere for anything the people want with my spade. What if resource busts and China tips off? Have cash inflow and then you can enjoy to see the warriors run in the ruins. I would be happy not one of them.

    I would try to get the point to use my spade at best and then I would spend the weekend to find the stock which would work as my spade. I would sell before next peak and pay off my debt. Could I? I believe that since I am not a warrior anymore.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 18th Nov, 2011
  17. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    What will market move tomorrow?

    Could you have your answer? If you have a sure answer, congratulation, you have passed this idiot test and have saved $5 about. Happy day, a idiot!

    [​IMG]

    I don't have clue where it would move forward tomorrow since it is Saturday. You see whatever your answer is, yes or not, you are idiot.

    What about the day after tomorrow? What about the day after the Sunday? If you are sure you are idiot even you have some great system! All of system have great function to see what in the past but few could give you sure future.

    Idiots want to be more clever in prediction. Wise men want to do what they should do. What do you want to be? Don't agree? Have you seen any doomsayers have big money? Can you predict where a free running roller-coasters would stop?

    [​IMG]

    Are you clever? Market is the graveyards for the clever men or women! Do you know whom a human is after the evolution so far? What's your instinct? Don't know? You are idiots in the market even you could hold R**6 as a financial adviser.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 19th Nov, 2011
  18. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Why has Buffett bought IBM?

    Buffett made a news again that is he has being bought IBM. When the whole market cry for the EU default and China's tipping off, why does he dare to buy IBM in the ruins? Two things make the difference in the market:

    1. when you buy for how long to hold
    2. what you buy

    Could you buy anything with expectation that you would not waste your money in the shops?

    Could you buy anything at any time with expectation that you would not waste your money in the shops?

    1. Could you hold anything with the hope its value will be increased forever?
    2. It is a matter you have to think when you want to buy.
    3. When you hold, you have to sell if its price much more than you paid.
    4. It is not a rocket scientific issue but whom you are!

    ***
    Could we buy today and sell tomorrow for great fortune? Yes? You are idiots since you don't understand the tree needs at least 10 years to be useful.

    You don't want to wait for 10 years, which is perfect fine but you have to find some have been grown by someone for enough years and them just could not hold any longer or have to sell on fire.

    You grip up the wind in light speed? You grip up nothing. You are idiots. So what you should grip up needs great plan and patience. Logically it is very simple to make huge fortune. You must be right and decisive and if you are wrong you are still OK!

    So how long have buffett spent on IBM? Why does he buy now not in IT booming time? He could buy something very poorly. He did a lot of times but he always want to be right and decisive with sure scenario, OK!

    ***
    It is easy to deal with profit: let it run for more or lock it into vault.

    It is hard to deal with losses and defeating. Do you win or lose in this rout of market? How could you be sure you would not lay down flatly? Idiots cry in ruins. Great grip up the pile of gold in ruins. The immature market stundents like me to build last defensive line.

    Don't read to match yourself to be idiots or greats or students and feel angry to me! I was idiots in the market time by time so far. I don't want to be idiots anymore but I am not sure I could not be idiots in future.

    All of us have our own behavioral problem.

    Yes, we can trade but we could not trade in ourselves!

    ***
    I know somethings about IBM as everyone else. After thinking about, you could not deny IBM fits Buffett’s long-held strategy of investing in companies with

    1. solid management,
    2. a healthy dividend,
    3. plenty of cash on hand, and
    4. growth opportunities poised to outpace the wider market.

    You don't need to think about too long for a conclusion that IBM price should be reasonable. Could you believe a castle in the tsunami ruins has more chances to stand there than a shabby shed?

    Don't tell me you don't know the difference between Castle and shed! What Buffett is better, is that he buys the castle with great managers to clean up the Castle. Do you know the price after the cleaning up?

    So could you find the reasons why you cry and buffett buys?

    ***
    So why don't you put the time to get the good items? I could not afford before I finish my last defensive line.

    So when don't put all of your time on your spade? Engineer for new product is a poor career which need to do professionally and put yourself into it. You accept the job and you have to get into it and make something for your boss. I just could not spend any time in the market when I work for others. Dammed that in 1978 all of promising youth in China just want to choose to be Engineers or scientists. Me? A member of the crowd and really then but lucky one with chances to be an Engineer in a historical transition time(one time per 500 years in China!).

    Do hope EU and China are there two years later where people still need the food and resources for their life! Do hope some great black swans hover over some of my dirty-cheap fishes. I am quite optimism about the market, economy, and the life!

    Life is good and always good! Even in the collapsed tunnels? Yes, definitely since you are alive and can choose for your future!

    What if EU and China tip off and US comes back to the situation as that in 1929? All would suffer and Buffett would do absolutely but he would be much better off than the warriors who just could cry in the ruins. Someone said he looks for absolute return but strategically he really look after the relative return.

    If the current bottom is one on rock, he would get absolute victory in years. If the current bottom is fragile and crash down again he would get relative return corresponding to the market warriors, big or small.

    Relative or absolute winning or losing need the contexts and conditions. Could you system tell you this simple logic? If so, God is blessing you! If not it is normal and normal life is a cheerful life, right?

    ***
    We all want some fortune but it is normal we just could not get! We all want to do what we really enjoy but it is normal we just could not do so in short time. We are trained as hole punchers but in market we just could not act as strategist with great system to support our great strategies, which is normal.

    Get the lessons, don't give up your efforts, lucks don't hit the prepared hands only, and you have to go forward without matter you are lucky or not! Someone asked me whether or not it is good time for their home houses. I just said if you could afford and would like to work hard to make it afford why you don't buy your houses?

    Who really know what will happen tomorrow in EU and China? When could we know tomorrow? It is always sad after you work hard for 40 years you still have to rent a room or a house. Who cannot afford a house in Australia if he don't want to buy their houses in the famous and beautiful areas?

    What's money for? The necessities first! What are the necessities? The roof and food! It is your duty to make the necessities of family affordable!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 19th Nov, 2011