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Australian Dollar and Economy set to fall

Discussion in 'The Economy' started by jeromanomic, 21st Jul, 2015.

  1. jeromanomic

    jeromanomic Active Member

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  2. radson

    radson New Member

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    Well that article was wrong.
     
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  3. twisted strategies

    twisted strategies Well-Known Member

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    so far .....

    i try to have a strategy ready , for the moment it is correct
     
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  4. hash_investor

    hash_investor New Member

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    I am waiting for that moment so I can go on a buying spree. I will snap some blue chip shares on a bargain
     
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  5. twisted strategies

    twisted strategies Well-Known Member

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    there are two schools of 'dip'

    one suggests , because the US is electing a ( guaranteed ) first term president , the markets might be uncertain and volatile , but WON'T crash .... however a 10 to 15% correction is possible ( but nor the full crash ) ( the 'be nice to the new President' theory )

    the second school says logic and fundamentals are stuffed ... best of luck .( the market is broken theory )

    BUT there is also a school of thought that suggests a few wobbles , but divs being spent on shares will help push the market higher as the year comes to an end ( aka a Xmas rally ) ( and the US aren't that far from record highs and seemingly devoid of logic )

    but select share target and 'dream prices' early .... sure

    if a dip/crash

    i am looking for extra TLS and HVST also some ILC , as priority targets

    also HGG and CYB if Brexit worries again

    there are plenty lower down on the list .

    if the market rallies i will be looking for cheap CCV ( and to reduce stocks i consider over-priced )

    be ( a little ) flexible , but have a plan

    good luck

    ( why ILC ... i am not as heavily exposed to the top 20 stocks as most will be , but those 20 stocks could lead the way down , and up in the eventual recovery )
     
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  6. Dian2

    Dian2 Member

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    I saw some commentators and analysts forecasted very weak outlook for AUD in 2016. Still it is holding somewhat without crashing as some predicted. Do you think it can go down? Can we alos expect higher growth in the economy in 2017/18?
     
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  7. twisted strategies

    twisted strategies Well-Known Member

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    welcome to investchat ,
    firstly ,

    ( i am still a novice .. only been investing since very late 2010 )

    now the $A is in an unusual place , it is weak to be sure , but between undeclared currency wars elsewhere and massive QE , fragile economies , and possible sovereign defaults elsewhere ..

    Australia looks to have a very nasty cold in a town ravaged by the plague .
    i note you are from NZ ( my dad was a Kiwi )

    so lets compare $NZ v. $A to give you a better picture ... for the $NZ to treaten parity ( i hold several NZ companies ) would have been a fantasy in the post decimal currency era , but the threat is real , solid milk demand and a slowing but stable China would come close to making that certain .

    energy and commodity price rebounds have helped the $A a lot while haphazard ( Australian ) government policy hasn't .

    higher Oz growth ?? but where will it come from , i expect mining ( except for gold/silver ) to go lower to test previous cycle lows ( as folks off-load stockpiles to reduce debt ) and similar in energy , we can't decide if we really want foreign tourists or international investors ( except in the share markets ).

    can the $A go down ??
    against which currency ?? the Pound , the € , the Yuan ( being discreetly let slide by the government ) ??

    against the $US , yes because plenty of big ticket items are still waiting for delivery , 787 dreamliners , F-35 fighters , plenty of expensive computer tech .

    to counter that we still have positive bond rates and that will encourge some investment
     
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  8. Dian2

    Dian2 Member

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  9. twisted strategies

    twisted strategies Well-Known Member

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    very hard to predict the $A , the RBA cutting rates doesn't work ( for long )

    and the global economy is getting to the stage where the 'cream of the crop ' may still be cripples

    i saw one survey naming Tasmania as the current No. 1 growth state in Australia .

    if true that performance hurdle is a painted line on the track ( easily to either slip off , or fall over it )