Just a few weeks ago, few traders in XAO believed it could be less than 4000 but now it is. Could it be worse? Probably I guess. 17 June is a trustful date for things to change in the stock market even we don't know where it would go. What after this date? XAO should find its foot on the rock but it should not move up dramatically by itself before 1st July. There are so many losses there. Traders are experts to declare the losses. No losses no traders. Three things are there: 1. It's going to get worse before it gets better 2. No one know when it would be better in days or months 3. A long-term upswing is inevitable if it is worse and worse for long enough *** Have you heard mean recursion? Mean is simple, is to recur, is excruciatingly boring, but is deadly accurate. Fundamentally, it explains how highs and lows in a stock market, or any asset class, are temporary and will trend back to average over time. 1. In a bull market, it travels above the long-term average and traders or investors tend to believe it is all. 2. In a bear market, the world seems changed forever and long-term trends are discarded to the rubbish bin. Mean recurs though. It is a powerful natural force which seems a God favorite. When it comes to playing markets, traders or investors are taking a major risk by ignoring it. *** However people tend to go extreme for mean recursion. Some investors, especially the experts to sell their ideas for live said: 1. we should not be hoodwinked into trying to pick market lows and market highs. 2. No one can pick a top or bottom and they are better off buying quality stocks with strong dividends and ride the wild swings of the market out. Logically you could not say they are wrong but they oversimplify the complexity of the real world and can mislead the passive investors to buy at peak and trapped there or here. *** Logically it is different matters you can not get the lowest and you should try all to pay less than you would get. It is not about how long you hold but how less you pay than the mean. Do you know the mean and do you know what is qualities? Do you have your mental framework to see what you pay is much higher than it is now and be sure it would be much higher than you paid? You don't need big mistakes to destroy your money but a step further from the logic and truth. It is so obvious that few trader/investor really know it.