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Trading BKP: Could it 10 baggers?

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 4th Jan, 2011.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Today it announced to halt its trading. Its price touched at $0.016. The market seems expect some explosive news from its oil field in Georgina Basin:

    "The Southern Georgina Basin, onshore Australia, hosts high quality source beds and potential conventional and unconventional reservoir rocks. We believe that this basin is one of the most prospective onshore basins in Australia with potential for both very large conventional and unconventional oil and gas deposits."

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  2. poverty

    poverty New Member

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    I got in the other day before the trading halt at 1.5, should be an interesting ride.
     
  3. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    BKP: set the feet on $0.02

    Huge trading volume, 120,047,683, happened to BKP today without news, which pushed its price up to $0.02 and is being challenging $0.021.

    Don't know what would be my final selling price in future but feel very happy to see it turned itself to be my 3bagger profit generator again today. Really want to sell to lock the capital and profit, $25,000 into my pocket for capital gain claim this financial year. However I do still feel it could be a goose to lay more golden eggs for me:

    1. Its oil field is very attractive with quite big probability to make a new time for unconventional oil production in Australia.

    2. It is on a free ride until the first well drilling in its near oil field without big risk

    3. The shale structure around its oil field has been declared by some geologists as one as good as the bakken shale in US which has help me to get one 6 baggers profit from SSN this financial year.

    4. I am not qualified to be sure all of this assumption, the great shale structure for oil, but I appreciated ACE and its Canada's acquirer who are very ambitious about it. They would put a lot of money into this area.

    5. I am a dirty-cheap fish collector who has got BKP at $0.005 at the end of 2009. You could play the puffs or play the rare tobacco for all of smoker to dizzled in a looking-dirty and butt-like cigarette but having great probability that it was imported from Mars by someone and something we don't know. Joking.

    [​IMG]

    6. GFC has destroyed too much and asset price have been pushed down in the stock market especially Aussie market. Some value has been thrown away ruthlessly.

    If no risk to lose the capital I prefer to let my dream fly. Now BKP gives me the chances. I do hope BKP could fly with my dream together.

    BKP goes! Do let the exciting out to cool my mind down! Don't blame me I am a rampper but I have to admit I do hope it could be $1 someday when I hold it! But at last I have to separate the hopes and realities intelligently if I want to be a good market player. All of us have three options in the market, fear, greed, or intelligence for our mind to run!

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    Last edited by a moderator: 13th Jan, 2011
  4. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    BKP: Lock or not lock the profit

    Usually after we buy, we expect the price of what we buy goes up immediately. In reality, it is never true unless you buy in a big upward trend for weeks or months if not years. We all worry about the spikes too much after some big shooting up. We worry about the spikes would disappear just a second later. Now all of market retail players around BKP as bargain hunters or momentum traders are googling very vigorously for all to get the senses where BKP would go.

    We all don't want to see the profit in paper would burn down tomorrow. We all don't want to sell too earlier. We all have the experiences to see our paper profit gone or the share fly into the sky after we jump down the board. The critical thinking is not the price movement but whether or not the price shooting up by fads or the potential explosive future events. If it is a fad's product of the price shooting up, you are better to sell laughingly to lock the profit. If it is about the potential future explosive matter, you need to think again and again. A profit of 10% would bring in quite different outcome to the profit perspective of your portfolio in future.

    1. 10% of $10,000: $1,000 profit, which means you need to trade for 10 times for a $10,000 profit. However in the next 9 trading you could not be sure you could win every time and any loss would not destroy too much not just the profit but capital.

    2. As a dirty-cheap fish collector, you have been brave enough to buy the deserted orphans of the market with the risk of the falling knife. You need the winners to cover all of your loss, overlays, and annual profit of your portfolio. Whatever the reasons if you could not make profit + cost of butters and milks > loss to your portfolio, you have to stop to play them!

    3. 10 baggers of $10,000: $9,000 profit, which if could get, would put you in a very comfortable profit situation of your portfolio. Of course it is assumed all of the loss from other fishes would be affordable and you could get it.

    4. How to get the winner win enough and keep the losers in a very narrow loss box? It is a task that all of market have to solve. How to do is really a technical problem and if you are skillful or really want to learn you should find the way to get it.

    BKP in my views is in its initial stage to show how many explosive stuffs under its hat. Yesterday, its Canadian partner, PFC, which merged with AEC has been listed. The market pushed its price to C$3.80 and let it drop back to $3.00, which was $1 more than its subscription price, $2.00.

    Do you believe the story that PFC could get huge shale oil? Some say yes and some say no. I feel the chance should be more than 65% since I have followed BKP, AEC, and PFC long enough. Of course 35% chances to lose could be finally turned to be true. The question is if you diversify enough and time average the risks enough for your portfolio, you should think about to hold. Buying is about value and margin of safety for value investors(how to get the value and margin is different story). Selling is about the feeling of the probability of the future growth.

    If the oil barrels in the feasibility study could be confirm half, BKP should be more than $0.10, I feel. At $0.005 cost, with $0.021 and the margin of safety from this price, I could not find the reason I should sell now. Of course if others in my portfolio shoot up too and could give me profit as a whole for my portfolio I may sell.
     
  5. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Evaluation by using critical thinking!

    Investor Info - PetroFrontier Corp.

    "These targets will also test the economic validity of the unconventional oil rich Hot Shale reservoir containing 8.9 billion barrels (P50, gross acreage) on PetroFrontiers lands according to Ryder Scott. The Corporation expects to commence drilling in late 2010 with production projected for 2011."

    Most of market players concern the delay of the drilling commence too much. The critical matter here is whether PFC could confirm the size of oil from the oil field. Any plan from human psychological points of views would be optimism generally since naturally we want to get good results and have biases.

    As a dirty cheap fish collectors we could not be sure all of the future things but we could be sure in somewhat of extend for the worst and best cases. The best is all to go as the pan and Ryder Scott Resource Report said. The worst case is no oil at all. What's your evaluation of the outcome in 95% if we put the randomness into our consideration?

    I bet on there is some oil and if it is true its amount should be big after considering all including my personal case and the potential. I paid each of BKP shares at $0.005 which is a great advantage and should have enough margin of safety for all of shares I bought at the same time(around October and SSN was one I got in that time) in 2009.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 15th Jan, 2011
  6. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    BKP: would you bet or not?

    Too many around BKP in the market try very hard to find what is going on but few would like to question

    1. what is your position or buying price in BKP and what size of your position to launch a attack for your profit or prepare to lose? It is about your forces or resource to get the profit or loss.

    2. Do you know in the worst case and best case you could expect from BKP? Usually I don't ask this question before my dirty-cheap fish starts to perform very well or bad. Is it worthwhile to focus on while you are busy to update your mind? We have limited time and we have to use it on the edge, right?

    3. What's the probability for the best case or worst case? I have to say I want to get killing from one or two of my dirty-cheap fishes for each year.

    4. I do want to get in when things look worst, hold to see the best case in the way, and sell for enoughness. What would happen if I am wrong and could I afford my mistakes in analysis and judgment?

    5. Why don't you talk about the economy, market, human psychology, and smart thinking now? They are useless to get the profit from BKP if I could not get the enough knowledge about them in my mind before I check the worst and best case of BKP. They should be use to answer my questions specific to the cases of BKP.

    OK, it sounds crazy to ask so many questions, right? Good questions would force you to challenge yourself. Would you want to put your enemies under the control? Who is your enemy in the market? Yourself.

    What is the best case for BKP? It gets the oil roughly in the amount shown in its feasibility analysis or the research report. Probability? More than 65% based on the report. Would you want to risk my capital and profit now for this best case? Definitely! No worry about you are wrong? Not at all! Why? No free lunch and no chance without the companion of risks.

    But, it sounds not a value investment? What the value investment is for? What the value investment is based on? Ok, but it is speculative, isn't it? What is the speculation is? Is it value investment to get $1 from $1? Charley monger is right that any sensible playing in the market is value investment! Do you agree that?

    Is it worthwhile to take the risk? You get 65% chance to win with affordable risks and you still could not get your gut to bet? Go to the hell!
     
  7. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    BKP: goal, options, and outcomes

    All of people around BKP try very hard to guess where its price would go after SPP. Generally saying the ones who join SPP would feel confident its price would be higher; the ones who don't would feel a little bit worrying; and most of really don't know where it would go.

    I try to get some ideas based on my goal that I want to get from it. What's my goal? I hope I could get another 10 baggers based on my $0.005 buying price. What options could I have? No too many. Two only; one is buying more; another is doing nothing for SPP. Both of these options have their own risks and chances for rewards. There are no too many options of the consequences or outcomes for what I do: getting more than 10 baggers if half of the oil reserves could be confirm; losing some paper profit; losing all of paper profit; and losing some capital and all of paper profit.

    Market and economy trends are very important but no too many effects to BKP future profit. It is at the cross point: making itself again or destroying more money which depending on the oil and only the oil in its ground. In my view, you could think very complicated but if no oil most of the capital in BKP would be burnt on the fire without matter you are investors or traders or wise ones or stupid ones. It is a time for gut for your probability calculation and have to beg the lucks for BKP and yourself.

    The key is whether or not you are ready to collect the chip, much more on the table or see Mr. Market indifferently get your money away and put somewhere you could not get it back, which is a one time business. I hate to be a gamblers but I also feel pity for anyone who has not gut to bet on when the probability higher than 65%, especially who bet all without understanding that the probability could be end with $0, not just about the profit but your capital.

    I still have not enough capital to burn without matter it is under the flags of value investment, gambling, or trading wisely or not. I would not join SPP not because I don't have confidence for the oil reserves but I would feel very painful if I put more money in from my cash reserve and lose it. If I join the SPP I could not leave enough margin of safety for the profit target of my portfolio in next financial year. This financial year I have done enough. I have to control my greed based on what I could afford, which could not let me feel very bad and affect my family life.

    Buying to me is about extremely low in the historical bottom channel. Selling to me is about enoughness from the limitation of the personal and external environment. What if BKP shoots up to $0.10 or $0.50? Don't you feel regret for your decision not joining the SPP? I just want to do the decision right. Sometimes best decision could get the worst result or vice versa, but it is not the matter I could control. I need the discipline for my market playing!
     
  8. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Extended SPP = extended chances

    BKP today announced it would extend the closing date of SPP to 18 March 2011, which would give all of shareholders who have not decided to join the SPP, new chance to make some more profit:

    1. the initial closing date was designed just after the drilling start, which would spur the market sentiment and push the price up(the board seems very confident about it; me too)

    2. the drilling would start very soon it said even no date could be confirmed.

    3. bkp needs this SPP to extend its business and turn its course from a serious internal and external bad events since GFC.

    4. shareholders are very fearful even the oil prospective is very promising. They worry they could lose more.

    5. bkp board needs the support of its shareholders once the oil is confirmed!

    I may change mind if the drilling starts and join SPP. This new added month could be a month to extend the profit prospect with great confirmation of the BKP future!
     
  9. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    BKP: do you want to get out?

    It is interesting to see the traders run away from the market without counting on what in the future, actually no too many have the mindsets to think about let alone the future.

    All of $0.017 gone, which is the price of SPP. Do you want to sell on the fire? I never want to sell by following the panic herd in the market anymore since 2004. All of us know the best way to burn your money is to sell on fire. If I want to sell I want to sell when the herd wants my shares.

    I am quite confident that BKP could get a lot of oil based on my reading. I do feel it is about 80% probability since the horizontal drilling and facci tech. I don't join SPP just feel I have taken enough risks.

    Economy and market as a whole should be the matters to feed your strategic vision about your portfolio as a whole but the herd just use the system events as excuses to enjoy their market playing.

    Don't follow them. They are the basic forces negatively to balance the dynamic market environment. Let them sell and if you have extra cash buy more when they have nothing to sell.
     
  10. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Is anything fundamentally changed?

    As we all may or may not know there are two different types of forces to drive the BKP prices:

    1. Fundamental or cause-effect forces: value, explosive events which would change its value, and proper management of the business. Its value were assumed to be zero but bargain hunters just took the risks during and after its price crashes caused by internal and external matters, which happened between 2007 - Oct 2010, a quite long time and disappointed all desperately about it.

    The shale oil raises the hopes but its price has been driven up/down by the economy and market environment in the bottom channel, which has be formed since the crash caused its failure in the oil exploration. This crash is very terrible and all of its value gone and most of long term shareholders and even short-term traders are trapped as the losers. However the shale oil set up a light in the darkness, which was very dim, and market players around it has been very excited and perplexed also by the light on and off.

    SPP was to raise the capital but market really dislike any intention to pay in the darkness. Why do you pay for a not-sure signal? People use the conventional common senses for a sure future but forget this light could lead us to a very bright future, a 10 baggers in my cases. Now the SSP was closed. People turn their focus to buy as cheap as possible to focus on what the potential of the shale oil would be for BKP. So today the price goes up to $0.021. Yes, BKP would have value much higher than $0.02 if it has huge oil and if not it means trap!

    2. Random forces would play its part in our BKP playing. They are so strong and often than not it just buries the signal of the future course ruthlessly. These random forces drive the price madly and worry the buyers and holders very much. Yes, all of us want to get some profit. We could not forget GFC. But don't forget GFC happened since the fundamental problems of the global economies not the random market sentiment which just introduced the mania for the cake in the sky.

    Playing in the market for 10 baggers need to grip up on the signal from the randomness. It is all about what your understanding of the vital few, is the signal is true? if we are not sure and should be not sure, how should we manage the risks and know what the risks would be dollar-matter? It is a challenge about decision making and we have to know the decision making and the consequences could not always are good. We need good decision and prepare if good decision fail to bring in good consequences.

    I am happy to see my original betting has been 4 baggers in paper. If it could get the oil I do believe it should be more than 10 or 20 baggers. I would like to see the consequences of the shale oil exploration! Just a few more words: I bought SSN at $0.01 and the shale oil drove it to more than $0.09; After it was corrected to $0.067, I felt huge pressure to sell since I have to guarantee the profit for 2010/2011 be locked and keep the cash flow positive for two years if all don't work as my expectation, even I knew its price at $0.067 is undervalued; the shale oil is the causes for SSN to be $0.20 now; I have to say I made a decision to lock the profit right but the consequence of SSN price are so great. The 10 baggers only could be possible the causes to explode are there. If we have confident about the causes, we should allow it play the part as much as the pressure on us allows, which we could sustain emotionally and financially.

    BKP goes! SSN goes!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 8th Mar, 2011
  11. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Did you burn out your potential gem on the fire?

    It is very interesting that all of the market was still in selling mood but it hold at $0.018 so strongly. Did you burn out your potential gem, BKP, on the fire? To lock or stop your 10 or 20% loss? Stop loss? It is unlikely to the bargain hunters around BKP. So why do you have the loss to stop? I don't have the loss to stop and I don't want to lock the profit too. What? Are you crazy when you have the profit in this panic time since Japan quake and the damages of nuclear reactors? Do you know how terrible if all of these reactors completely break up? Have you seen the market is selling everything?

    I would not sell since I don't believe Japan's disaster is completely out of control and I could not figure out any fundamental changes which is worse than the time when I bought BKP:

    1. After market calms down from the fretting of the disasters, the oil and gas sector would be heating up again very likely or hold its current price.
    2. Investors appetite for risk is reduced in the disasters but it will be back as that before or it may need more oil. The market seemingly will going up after it goes down enough.
    3. Natural disaster is terrible but would pass by sooner or later. The land would be dried up much quick in Australia if it becomes better.
    4. The most important matter is PDF's propensity to do some ‘elephant-hunting’ in its exploration(PDF is BKP's partner). From PDF’s presentations, its holdings have the potential (read that carefully) to hold 27.5 billion barrels of oil. PDF’s market cap is now US$165 million and BKP's one is about $35 million.

    So to BKP its oil exist or not more than important than anything else under the sky. What if it gets the oil? What if it couldn't get the oil? Could you afford to lose $10,000 - $20,000 capital(I don't want to count the paper profit now even it is quite big but not big enough corresponding to its potential. Do you gamble? Yes I do but I just gamble on the matter which is worthy of the betting.

    BKP to me is worthy of my betting. I don't lock the trivial profit based on my understanding about it. I don't want to feel regret since I just sell for a immediate pleasure or comfortable feeling. Seriously saying I hate stopping the loss since it means you have lost something and I hate to cut the profit prematurely too.