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Trading BKP: Fundamental causes to drive its price up!

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 5th Dec, 2010.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    31st Mar, 2010
    In the time when most of market players, especially retail ones, are still risk-aversive, any price move up of your dirty-cheap fishes need your efforts to know its possible causes, which would help the re-evaluation of the risks and the reward.

    You don't mind they are dirty or not but do want to buy at the lowest price of any future price in your time horizon, right? Once the market shows the weak signals of any reward of your dirty-cheap fishes, you have to use your operational discipline to check if the risks are still right ones and get the feeling how high the price could move up.

    PFC is the new name of AEC.


    BKP price has moved from $0.003 to $0.008 and stay at $0.007, right? What's my discovery for the causes?

    1. AEC shows quite great interests on BKP's E127 and E128 oil and gas areas in Georgina Basin. It acquires 75% interests and BKP just gets 25% free ride.

    2. AEC Have committed to a significantly increased exploration budget in Georgina Basin(where AEC has 50% interests of E101 and E103 too).

    3. AEC would drill by utilizing horizontal drilling and fraccing, which have been used in US unconventional oil drilling. I knew these tech after I bought SSN at $0.01 and before sold at $0.065.

    4. AEC believes the shale in Georgina Basin is quite similar to that of Bakken Basin, which has being very hot since 2009. AEC wants to drill to confirm its assumption and will start the drilling very soon as early as 2011.

    5. BKP is in trading halt to announce its resource updating but the core should be in AEC hands already.

    6. AEC has put E127 and E128 into its resource reserves and call the oil and gas areas in Georgina Basin as Unlocking Massive light oil resource in Australia in its presentation of Nov 2010.

    7. The horizonal and fraccing would delay the spud but would increase the great success for these minnows. They takes the right risks and if they are right they would be rewarded greatly. The beauty is BKP is free ride as I just paid for this at $0.005.

    I am happy to see what BKP have planned to do. I believe the price moves up with good fundamental reasons in future.

    If the resource evaluation confirms AEC's number in E127 and 128. We just need to wait for the confirmation of the similarity of Georgina shale and Bakken shale. The unconventional oil with horizontal and fraccii are new to Australia but very promising. It would have risks but definitely reward risks in my views. I would risk affordable capital for 5 baggers if not 10 baggers.

    Just want to be conscious, logic, and good decision in the coming turbulence

    Patient, mate, if you have got BKP in hands with the good margin of safety! However you also need to notice what will happen and what your response should be:

    1. If BKP resource report is great or very disappointed, do you know what the price would be in short term and long term, what would you do, sell after the release of the report to lock the profit or hold to let the winners run? Why? Do you find the rational for your assumption of your action?

    2. Are you happy about the profit you have got at current price? Do you feel enough and you really don't want to lose the profit based on your personal case. For example you bought it at $0.003, it would be about 3 baggers now. Would you feel big enough or not?

    3. Putting the GFC and dismal operational result of BKP in the last two years, all who should sell have sold, into your consideration, what's the normal price do you assume to be for BKP? Would you want to take the risks for that?

    4. Do you hold BKP only or a portfolio? What would be your profit target annually of your portfolio? Would you put the BKP price shooting up into your assumption?

    5. What do you feel the market as a whole would act? Is there any chance that the market water would rise also? What would you do for your BKP holdings for market as a whole up or down?

    6. What are your selling rules? Have you checked in the past for the rules? What's the effective and efficient from the profit point of view? Are you consciously know it is enough for your expectation and environment limitation?

    7. Could you see this new resource and ACE's success to drill for this resource would add more explosive powders into the shooting up? How long and how stages the upward trend would take?

    Selling is the hardest part to a dirty-cheap fishes collector.

    Do feel it is hardest part to sell for enough since there are too many uncertainties and sometimes we just could not know too many things.

    Do you know the gamblers also have the similar questions,
    When to hold'em or fold'em? Do you know B. Graham also highlighted this question? Graham used the intrinsic value as the guideline, which I still could not fully understand.

    What's my intrinsic value and how to get it? Long way to go. Before that I just could question myself and make me in consciousness if the air turns to be hot. Don't know and then we would be very easy to make the mistakes.

    It seems I should put focus onto the intrinsic value and learn how to sell wisely after I finish my learning of risk management.
    Last edited by a moderator: 6th Dec, 2010