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Trading BKP: No news is good news?

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 27th Sep, 2011.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    BKP just could not generate any good or bad news about its shale assets in NT. All of traders, day-type, momentum-type, or whatever type one, who aim not at the shale oil and would like to wait patiently, just feel uneasy terribly:

    1. selling? fear there are oil!
    2. holding? no news which are the blood for them to be in the market
    2. buying? no gut even the price down bit by bit

    All of them are painful in their extremely hard work to guess. That is good news for the people who hold for oil and give the chances to accumulate enough but nor far away what they could afford.

    PFC has held big enough fund and it seems it would not stop to explore this huge basin until it could not find any oil at all. It has devised off other assets. It just wants to bet on this shale. However it seems Aussie traders or bargain hunters still could not get this messages. In the wind from EURO, weak hands just let their shares gone from their hands.

    I would hold until PFC and BKP said unfortunately the dream of shale oil in Australia just gone in their hands. I would not blame PFC and BKP's great management team. Don't announce tiny news to confuse the gut-crunched shareholders needs the courage.

    It is a exploration for what the geological data said very promising. It is high risky and high consequent action. It is zero or all type of game.

    If you want to jump over the fence, you should not touch BKP! However in the dark hell of XAO, BKP could shed some light for the opening where you could run under the rising Sun.

    Good luck for the people who hold BKP tightly! If we have oil, we would have a point to get all of losses back in this rushing to hell. If not, hope it just costs the affordable capital!

    No news is good news since PFC would not give up before they could give out the news with some facts!

    ***
    BKP is one I feel shameful since I ignored the fact that the shale oil needed to be confirmed by drilling and I just put more hope than the reality before May. I refused to collect a good enough profit when the traders were euphoric and all of us ignore the risks from EURO and US.

    [​IMG]

    Actually I was forced to sell it at $0.02. I was not happy to sell by force. I should learn to sell when the traders collectively cheer. I should learn to buy back when the traders just feel indifferent or sell without news.

    BKP has the explosive powers and it just needs to be confirmed by the drilling. Could I sell when BKP shoots up vertically and hold it until PFC and BKP give up any hopes for shale oil?

    It is a very difficult issue. It is hard to hold in panic and hopeless. It is hard to sell in euphoria.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 27th Sep, 2011
  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Anyway PFC announced the drilling result!

    No news as though no bloods and oxygen for all of traders. PFC didn't want to lure the traders but the people who want to bet on its shale oil in Australia. BKP also supported what PFC's decision after it has raised enough money to wait for the drilling result.

    Yes, why not? Let the people who enjoy to guess, guess what under the ground and PFC just focus on what it needs to do: get the shale oil out of the ground or burn all of the money after its gambling for the oil. Gambling for oil? Yes all of geological data on the ground so far said it could be another bakken basin for shale oil but need to drill to confirm.

    No drill results and fully and careful analysis of the core from the drilling, PFC could only guess and promote itself for nothing. It is wise to get the heart for the shale oil believers rather than the momentum or day traders for news and price!

    Anyway it is the time PFC could say something about Georgina Basin drilling now. It sounds very good even some traders would be very disappointed not seeing the oil for their quick money. Great and company making events would not become bad even taking a little bit longer time

    PetroFrontier Corp. announces successful drilling of Baldwin-2 horizontal well in the Georgina Basin, Australia

    Drill in the lower Arthur Creek "hot shale"
    PetroFrontier Corp. ("PetroFrontier") is pleased to announce that it has successfully drilled Baldwin-2Hst1, Australia's first horizontal well in the Lower Arthur Creek "Hot Shale" Formation in the southern Georgina Basin in the Northern Territory, Australia.

    Baldwin-2Hst1 is located in the southwestern part of EP 103 in the Southern Georgina Basin. PetroFrontier has a 100% working interest in EP 103 and is the operator. EP 103 covers 3.16 million gross acres and accounts for approximately 27.2% of PetroFrontier's net acreage in the Northern Territory, Australia.

    What're the attributions of the hot shale?

    1. The "Hot Shale" formation is comprised of interbeds of shale, silt, sand and carbonate, is slightly radioactive and is easily identified on gamma ray logging tools.
    2. The "Hot Shale" is petroliferous, up to 40 metres thick and extensive in area.
    3. The "Hot Shale" is geologically and mechanically analogous to major unconventional oil plays in North America such as the Bakken and Eagleford.
    4. These unconventional oil plays require the use of advanced horizontal drilling and completion techniques to be economic.

    What have been got from the drilling?

    1. Baldwin-2Hst1 reached a total measured depth ("MD") of 1,948 metres and remained within the main target zone in the Lower Arthur Creek "Hot Shale" for 875 metres while directionally drilling up a regional dip of 1.7 degrees.
    2. Positive hydrocarbon indications were recorded along the entire length of the horizontal section, with elevated gas readings and evidence of heavier hydrocarbons present.

    PFC's comments on the drilling
    1. "PetroFrontier's long range exploration planning includes accurately defining the regions of oil and gas maturity within the basin to help target our exploration efforts," stated Paul Bennett, CEO of PetroFrontier.
    2. "We believe that within our lands the full range of hydrocarbon maturation is present and this will allow PetroFrontier the flexibility to chase the best economics for the play, whether it is pure oil or various mixtures of oil and gas."
    ....

    Delays in drilling but big enough oil if exists mean nothing

    1. Delays in drilling occurred when the bit tracked into the underlying Thorntonian Limestone Formation after encountering an unexpected fault.
    2. Every effort was made to redirect the bit upwards back into the Lower Arthur Creek "Hot Shale", but the bends in the hole became too severe for an effective future well completion.
    3. The new horizontal section kicked off along the regional dip established by the plugged back portion of the well and was successfully steered through the Lower Arthur Creek "Hot Shale".

    Gas recovered: average units and interpretation
    1. Total gas recorded in Baldwin-2Hst1 averaged 240 units over the entire horizontal section, commonly peaking above 1,000 units with maximum recorded values over 2,500 units.
    2. The gas recorded contained heavier hydrocarbon fractions up to pentane ("C5") over much of the horizontal section.
    3. Conventional gas ratio analysis indicates very wet gas to oil for the most of the well with occasional definite oil signatures in places. However, this interpretation may be biased to gas due to the nature of the reservoir being intersected.

    The ability to fracture stimulation
    1. Following the interpretation of the full suite of logs acquired in the pilot hole, a mechanical earth model was constructed with very positive indications for the ability to fracture stimulate Baldwin-2Hst1.
    2. Fractures developed in the vertical plane of the well, transverse to the horizontal well path, are predicted by the model, with excellent containment indicated from the bounding layers both above and below the possible pay zone.
    3. In addition, natural fractures were observed. These will assist in the initiation of the stimulation fractures and aid in growing the complexity of the fracture treatment. This should have a positive impact on flow rates.

    No clay minerals and confident to fracture stimulate with water!

    1. X-ray diffraction ("XRD") analysis has shown little presence in samples of clay minerals often associated with sensitivity to water-based frac fluids.
    2. The XRD results, combined with further confirmation in laboratory sensitivity tests, have given PetroFrontier the confidence to fracture stimulate with water, which is an important factor in keeping the stimulation costs as low as possible.

    Still high risky exploration so far but much more valuable!
    1. Although these findings are encouraging, this well remains a high-risk exploration venture and yet to be proven.
    2. Readers are cautioned that no reserves or production has been proven by this well.
    (day traders would worry since the whole market is questioning "what if something bad?")

    Move to EP127 now as plan
    1. PetroFrontier will suspended Baldwin-2Hst1 and then move Major's TXD-SS2018 rig to the second location in the current program, MacIntyre-2, located in the northeastern corner of EP 127, approximately 60 km to the northwest of the Baldwin location.
    2. The rig once released is expected to commence drilling the MacIntyre well in approximately three weeks following minor rig modifications. PetroFrontier has redesigned and re-engineered the MacIntyre-2 well to be drilled as a deviated pilot hole kicking off to a horizontal in the Lower Arthur Creek "Hot Shale".
    3. This new well design is expected to result in greater drilling efficiencies and substantial cost savings.
    PetroFrontier will issue its next update once a date has been determined to spud the MacIntyre-2 well.

    Intends to frac and if it is decided would be great news for BKP shareholders!

    1. Once MacIntyre-2 has been drilled, PetroFrontier intends to frac and complete the well using multi-stage open hole techniques. Final results will then be released from MacIntyre-2 and the completions crew will subsequently return to Baldwin-2Hst1 to conduct a similar completion program there.
    2. It has always been PetroFrontier's strategy to frac MacIntyre-2 and Baldwin-2 back to back in order maximize cost controls.
    3. PetroFrontier intends to use Schlumberger, the Australian representatives of Packers Plus, to run the multistage open hole completion string and conduct the fracture stimulation program.

    First open hole and multi-stage fracing in Australia
    1. PetroFrontier is the first company to introduce to Australia these open hole horizontal and multi-stage fracing technologies to unlock unconventional oil potential.
    2. These technologies have been widely successful in unlocking North American unconventional oil reservoirs such as the Bakken formation.
    3. The use of these technologies is expected to give PetroFrontier every chance of establishing commercial production.

    ...

    ***
    High risk and high consequence are all about this exploration. If successful it could the company maker for PFC and BKP! If not, it would be the traders' slaughter table! Do you want to be part of the maker and ready to take the worthwhile risks. All after you!

    I would hold it with my remaining shares, 800,000, with the hope Georgina Basin could be next Bakken Basin! God blesses Australia even not the traders who keep to jump over fences! Don't give them news and let them run in darkness otherwise they would jump over fence until dying exhaustively!

    Too many died financially when SSN crashed down and stayed below $0.012 and they lost the chances to ride on SSN for some great results. Why? They trusted their patterns and systems more than anything else even the geologic survey and long time research of the academic and practical geologists.

    A lot of them even don't know what shale oil really is and what Bakken Basin and its similarity mean to them! Do you know the meaning? Definitely even I don't know what exactly in the ground so far as PFC geologists do! Anyway any scientific hypothesis needs the fact, here the shale oil, to appear from the pipe from the hole in the ground!

    Do you fear any delay? No! No delay means sureness which is never part of exploration! I do fear no oil but I cannot do anything for it so I ignore the consequences but do what I believe I should do!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 12th Oct, 2011
  3. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Be sure how much you are ready to lose!

    You have two questions about BKP's profit or loss for you:

    1. What if it has a lot of oil?
    2. What if it has no oil at all?

    They are about how much you would like to lose not how much you want to make.

    If it has the great shale oil, don't sell too quickly since it could be 10 baggers or 50 baggers or 100 baggers. Why do you say so? It could be another bakken basin or nothing or something between them! However it has risks and real risks, which is not the delay or bad management but the lucks of Australia, which is rich in resource but so far we are not 100% sure Georgina Basin final economics from the geologists' report on the ground not in the ground.

    Would you want to take the risks? Could you sustain the pressure to lose most if no oil at all? Even if 1% losing probability was actuated, it would be 100% reality! Be sure how much you do really enjoy to lose first otherwise leave BKP alone! It is nothing else but issue about having or having not shale oil! Who could decide it? No human can decide it! You are not exceptional!

    So don't be cheerful or fearful but rational. Don't curse anyone if you lose all since no bad or good management team could create shale oil which had been there for millions' year.

    Actually I sold 1,000,000 of BKP at $0.02 and hold 800,000 to win or lose! Gamble? Yes! Is it right or wrong from the view of the consequences of the drilling? I don't know. Nothing is yet! Don't you worry the traders would sell off and push the price down too much? I don't buy for their call but for the shale oil which I believe should be in the ground!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 12th Oct, 2011
  4. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    leave it alone until MacIntyre-2 fracing

    Market sentiment is hard to predict in days or weeks. BKP's future could not be decided by anything else but before the fracing is done, all of actions are based on guess work.

    The oil, if there is, need the fracing to crack the shale and let the oil out. Before it is done, any guess could be wrong. While FDL and AZZ drilled, all around them fretted and a lot of people just could not hold and then missed the trains forever.

    I don't want to guess but wait patiently for it to happen. Great chances need the patience and could not see by eyes always. BKP and PFC have vision and would like to confirm the geologists' hypothesis. It is the last scientific stage to exploration for oil.

    No drill you just have the hypothesis. The drill consequence will change thing you may like to see or not. Leave something alone with rational minds are challenge and painful process. What if? Too many asked too many trivial what if but the key is:

    What if they have oil or not? Anything else is to motivate your jump over fence. All we know what we could get by doing so. It is hard to jump over fence in fads and you could stump down to ground if fads suddenly gone and thing is confirmed to send you into the hell!

    How many times do you want to jump over? Have you jumped over fence at $0.03 around? It is a time to ask very basic and vital questions. Most of sellers are forced selling or sale on fire since the winds don't do anything better to them on the ground even the winds could not create or destroy the shale oil.

    I still feel very happy to buy BKP at $0.005. It has a very lovely concept, shale oil and bakken type basin in Australia. If this concept is not false everything is fine. Foolish and weakest hands always are taken away.

    When to buy? Buy no one want to buy! When to sell? Sell when too many want to buy. When to hold? After no one want to buy and before no enough people want to bey. You could use them as guideline even you are value players and only want to stay in some great castles such as BHP and RIO when the wind doesn't hit them along the way! Do you buy the manufactures? No! It could be underpriced but there are the winds against ahead.

    What if BKP gets the oil when the whole XAO wants to buy? Don't tell me you are wind tellers. You are followers of the winds with great systems and you could be wrong too! Is it possible the windy season has been shifted from October to August?

    Human is crazy and the policy makers are crazy too. If no crisis all of the politicians in EU, US, Australia, China, and so on just don't do what they have to do as me that I should sell in April but I just didn't!

    Good sign no too many cry very loudly since they have been despondent in the wind against them. They are exhausted and in deep depression! Good sign Australian unemployment rate surprised the market which is down not up! You see the wind could not beat all down. Australia is a huge castle even not an empire with great moat. GFCI could not hit it down. GFCII is a tearful expectation so far. Wall Street at last needs to follow Main Street. It is the rule of market. The tear or crying could not change it!

    Now market would cry for what if resource booming and Aussie dollar up again. It is fearful enough just assuming what is left after you and you kids dig out tons of gold from your backyard and no gold anymore! We should worry the holes everywhere and leave the gold there for something no one could predict! Trust me it will happen since most of us enjoy to cry and let crying show their wisdom!

    Just could not understand why didn't sell at $0.03 but do sell at ruins; why don't hold at bottom when you fail to sell at peak! There are too many stupid but lovely men and women! It is a pleasure matter to service their psychological needs if you are not stupid as me!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 13th Oct, 2011
  5. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Wild Greed, too hot, Credit, and regulation

    Head of financial stability at RBA, said it was crucial for central banks to keep a rein on the overall economy. "It will never be possible to eliminate the business cycle completely. But the quickest way to create a damaging credit boom is to run your economy too hot."

    Avoiding damaging financial episodes also required regulators with the power, the mandate, the resources and the culture to respond to a threat. "Even more important, they must be able and willing to intervene early."

    "Not every regulator in the world would do so." "one of the quickest ways to avoid a damaging credit boom was not to run the economy too hot."

    ***
    It was crucial for a market service business people to know it could not keep a rein on the overall economy but he has to keep his mind cool when the economies become hot and market warriors are cheerful.

    He has to know it is never possible that market would be quiet for too long and economies would run in the darkness or brightness always. But once your cost starts to run and cash reserve deletes below a level, the risks for your portfolio will be increased dramatically.

    To avoid the damaging financial episodes, require yourselves as regulators for your portfolios. You have to get mental power, the desire and resolution to conduct the mandate for your future. You need the resources and personal culture or personality and behavior to respond to a threat.

    It is most important you have to be willing to intervene early rather than late. Too late the damage will be done. One of the quickest ways to avoid a damaging run was to keep your cost low and higher and higher cash reserves and get all into cash before the euphoria music stops.

    ***
    She didn't talk about what we should do when all else run in the ruin and burn their money on fire. She seems not care about but she should if all are so desperate and economies get into a valley of death. RBA can cut the rate, which is to reduce the cost to borrow. What should we do to get gain rather than pain when the market is bad?
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 13th Oct, 2011
  6. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Learn to sell and forget it for your heads

    We hold for this:

    [​IMG]

    and it is gut-crunching to wait for this since the odds for this could not be 100%!

    10 baggers need this and if you could not get 10 baggers, it is not your fault and BKP management's fault. It is very important to know this otherwise you would hit your head against the wall someday later until you are unconscious. That is really bad to sacrifice heads for this. Are you ready to lose but not your heads?

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    No? Sell what you hold and forget it. Do remember it is very risky to hit your head against the wall voluntarily or in force. In the market you could not hand in your heads or trade in your heads. Most of time if you trade in your heads, you heads would be fully blooded and hard to be cured. Never and ever forget this fundamental rule. Don't follow me to trade your heads in! Don't follow me to trade your head in as I should not follow you to trade my head in!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 15th Oct, 2011