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Trading BKP: Report from Macquarie Equities Research

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 18th Mar, 2011.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    31st Mar, 2010
    Posts:
    1,292
    Location:
    Perth
    It is a very excited news that Macquarie Equities Research published a special report about PetroFrontier, the partner of BKP. http://macq.wir.jp/l.ut?t=1D3brQfR3


    The main points of the report are:

    1. Unrivalled resource potential with a core operational focus in Australia's Georgina Basin->a prospective recoverable oil resource at 27.5 bn bbl(P50, gross, unrisked).

    2. Analogous to Bakken oil play which have made SSN and pushes its price from $0.01 to $0.20 more or less.

    3. Live oil shows and high background gas.

    4. Low-cost, onshore exploration in a first wold country, Australia

    5. Initiating coverage with a C$10 target price and outperform rating

    6. 'Hot' shots: exploration for light oil resource in Australia's outback

    7. High risk and high reward exploration story Drilling results are likely to be closely watched by the market and can be expected to result in significant fluctuations in share price.

    8. Prospective unconventional resource of 26.4bn bbl

    9. Not a one-trick pony; Conventional prospective resource of 1.1bn bbl

    10. Drilling expected to commence in mid-April

    If the oil could be confirmed, BKP would be rerated and it would be reborn! I have decided to bet on it and added more in the last day of SPP. So now I have about 1.8 million BKP shares.

    How high could it be? It is a matter of the oil. If it could be $0.50(very greedy but I will not stick to it without change and I would sense the enoughness caused by internal or external matters), I would get a very pleasure profit which should keep me happy and I could claim I would be a full-time market student until I could not do anything. How about it has not oil? Not very good but I am ready to accept it.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 18th Mar, 2011
  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    31st Mar, 2010
    Posts:
    1,292
    Location:
    Perth
    Outcomes from General Meeting

    The followings are based on the post from infoseeker in HC, which is very informative. Thanks for the information to infoseeker in advance.

    **
    All resolutions passed except No.5

    Regarding Timeline to drill

    It is PFC's duty to announce when they feel Force Majuere no longer applies.

    About SPP Shortfall


    CV explained as follows:

    May approach interested parties if the discount to current SP is not too great... SOPHs and identified interested parties...otherwise will look at 15% rule (Does not require SH approval) and obtain funds at a higher SP value. Still a fluid situation atm.

    Look for new chances in Coal and Gas

    Are looking at many projects and focusing on Coal and Gas plays in Australia/regional and global. Will look at any deal but only act if it meets the Board's investment criteria.

    BKP is very aware of other propects/companies within NT and Qld border basins and is preparing this information for all holders to review. I need to do some follow up research on these plays myself so will post later when more informed.

    We know this game-playing

    Registry Nominee search did discover nominee companies that themselves were to another Nominee company...stated ..'we know this game-play with nominees...'.

    Basically the Board do not want one single/or group to be in a position to call a meeting with the view of forcing a takeover that would not obtain a premium to existing holders. So being prudent.

    They did identify one Nominee a/c (current hold 61m shares) and has been accumulating ...again I need to do some deeper research.

    ***
    Will be reviewing my notes and doing some followup researcch and then will share.

    Cheers...have a great one!
     
  3. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    31st Mar, 2010
    Posts:
    1,292
    Location:
    Perth
    BKP: Strategic thinking to guide your action

    Most of market players including professional and retail ones both, are goo to react the fads in days or weeks but few could act based on strategic thinking and focus on vital few matters in the market.

    If you have the gut to buy BKP at $0.005 or less, you should put all of your time to think what causes its price moves up over $0.02, which must be true or false for its future market making; Don't think bargain hunters are stupid. They could be wrong but they bet usually with their special reasons; Never wonder why so many specialists in the market are so cheerful, desperately, and painful in the struggling for profit? ;you should ponder your conclusion of the causes by turning it up and down, and right and left for a completed views; is it a life turning point in your market playing at affordable cost?; Are you get the probability of the causes from your conclusion based on your deductive and inductive reasoning?; could you get the answer such as "Could any great birth of great thing could be pain-free and could be achieved without the risks of the baby die before she could see the Sun?"; Do you what pains are the necessary corollary from the successful birth?; Do you want to and have the gut to wait for your lovely baby?; Are you matured enough and have seen so many great pains for your great sons and daughters?.

    I am confident I am waiting for a great turning point which has the probability of 80% or more. Do you know the horizontal drilling which could reach the unconventional oil sources very economically; Do you know facci tech to break the barriers of the locked unconventional oil?; We are at the very beginning to use these tech in Australia. Have you dreamed you could have held Microsoft for 30 or 40 years with some $5,000 as your initial capital? Timing is not important as people all agree since it is everything. You should control when you should hold'em and unfold'em.

    I know I should hold'em now or may be forever if BKP could drill the hole and get the oil one after another. No too much risks and then we could dream and get the conditions clearly for holding forever. What if the conditions say you would lose to hold forever? Hold blindly and blame W. Buffett is wrong? You are stupid not him, if you do so, aren't you? Am I a gambler? May or may not but I always believe any great successes in any fields need the gut to bet with great understanding of the causes and the underlying fundamental forces with the plan B or margin of safety to hold for your turn or no loss, never have loss, and never forget no loss strategically not tactically.

    Could we tell the consequential difference between strategical and tactical mistakes and effects to your life? No? You have some very serious problems in your mind and if you don't fix, it is very dangerous to you!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 20th Mar, 2011