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Trading BKP: the key is shale oil

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 15th Jun, 2011.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    31st Mar, 2010
    Posts:
    1,292
    Location:
    Perth
    BKP is being sold. What's for? Mainly for the losses of tax!

    Without matter how great it will be, who bought it before its last failure in its exploration in 2008 plus hitting by the GFC, would be losers by so far. They could not sustain any further pessimistic market sentiment and they have all of the reasons to sell.

    Market crowd like the news and is driven by news but value for a exploration miner is the drilling results. You have to count on the failure rate of any exploration and prepare for the bona fide oil or rock only.

    I do sell for tax deduction too but I learn not sell with the market crowd. Losses are always worse than break-even let alone profit, right? Too many market players could not understand this basic life logic in this civilized modern societies!

    ***
    How many market players understand the black swans and the appearance rate in their own circles? Don't tell anyone you are sure BKP would destroy you or reward you but do take the affordable risks with the potential reward.

    Somebody would be lucky and try one time to fix all of problems but don't let you trust your luck too much. I would like to see it would come back $0.003 or $0.10 or $0.20, or best $1.

    You could say it is speculation but I believe its value is much more than $0.01 just because the asset under the basin. If all of us know it has oil or not, we all would not be around it!

    Its value is you don't know what exactly in the basin and the art of geology said it has but...

    ***
    Understand the reasons why all of the sellers would sell now but I am learning to sell when all of them cheer to buy.

    All of us say we don't want to be the members of the crowd but from the messages post here and there most of us just cry at the same time and cheer for the similar reasons.

    I could not declare I would be better off than the crowd but I do feel happy I am more self-reliant, organized, disciplined, and analytic than the time before 2004.

    Hold BKP with the margin of safety and see the crowd rushes for exit before July is amazing without matter how long the drilling would be delayed. If it has the oil, the delay to me is not a problem.

    http://wdongli.wordpress.com/
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 15th Jun, 2011