Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 6th Dec, 2010.

1. ### wdongliWell-Known Member

Joined:
31st Mar, 2010
Posts:
1,292
Location:
Perth
sevencents77 in hotcopper gave out his assumption about the Enterprise Value based on his understanding of the oil reserve which shown in AEC presentation of E127 and E128:

(wli: the number about the un-risked undiscovered original oil has been checked by reading ACE presentation on 19 Nov 2010. Thank him for his excellent and helpful assumption)
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Hi PeterN23,

wli: use public information as base to get a honest but perhaps not right value calculation

You asked for a response from the more knowledgeable, but Ill give it a go anyway. My estimates are based on a Ryder Scott report issued by PFC on the 19/11/2010 that is available to the wider market and no I am not privy to any inside knowledge or information.

wli: Professional base for EV and his conservative EV calculation

As far as Im aware Macqaurie use a \$12 in ground valuation per barrel of oil and they would use P50 estimates which are 7.5Billion according to the ryder scott report p15.

But firstly I will base my crude maths on only \$1 per barrel and the P90 of 4.8Bb oil.

(wli: P15 is higher assumption of the reserve than P90 but \$1 would be very tough gound value too.)

wli: EV range based on Professional and tough calculation

4.8 bil x 25%(BKP share) = 1.2Bb oil x \$1 in ground value
= \$1.2 billion. Now using 10% risk adjustment gives us \$120 million divided by BKP shares on issue = 6.8cps. So based on Macqaurie \$12 in ground value you get 81cps

Now using the same math on the P50 estimates in the ryder scott report of 7.5 Billion barrles at my very low conservative \$1 in ground value you get 10.6 cps and using Macqaurie \$12 value you get \$1.27 per share.

wli: Summery of the calculation

So to sum up I used \$1 in ground value which is absurdly low. Brokers use around \$12.

P90 @ \$1 = 6.8cps
P90 @ \$12 = 81cps

P50 @ \$1 = 10.6cps
P50 @ \$12 = \$1.27 per share.

wli: sevencents77 wants to be honest

Crazy numbers when you consider brokers use around the \$12 in ground value.

Disclaimer: Please do your own research and I am not a financial adviser or qualified to give any advice. The above figures are produced from estimates available in the PFC presentation material.

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Not to be scientific calculation

The above is to open mind and get a roughly figure to judge and decide what I should do and share the information only.

Share price and the EV could not be taken as the result of science calculation. It should be used as a reference point for your decision.