Brace yourself

Guys,

Looks like we could be in for a bumpy ride today. The Japanese market closed early last night on the back of big falls, and the ASX shed almost 2 percent yesterday already. Could be bigger than the October hiccup...

Hang on and enjoy the ride.

From Tropo:

Cheers,
Michael.

 

Hahahahahahahaaaaaaaaa..........
You are learnig !!!!. That is good news....
If worse come to worse we might hit 4680 again (strong support).
So, Stay and as you said ....enjoy the ride...

 

I found below info in cyberspace.

Long Margin Position Unwinding Hits Market
As with many other Internet companies, Livedoor shares had been a hit with day traders and other speculators who frequently trade stocks on margin. News of the Livedoor investigation set off an explosion of sell orders in that issue. Other Internet-related shares have also taken a pummeling in the past few days, as retail investors try to raise cash to cover margin calls, market participants said.
"It's a vicious cycle - margin buyers tend to use IT issues to borrow money to buy other IT issues," Yoshino said.
Global Investors Losing Appetite For Japanese Stocks
To be sure, there are other signs that Japan's stock market might face stronger headwinds. Foreign investors, which poured money into Japanese shares last year, appear to be losing some of their appetite. A Merrill Lynch global investors survey showed that the percentage of investors wishing to cut their holdings of Japanese stocks nearly doubled to 29% in January from 15% in December, while those wanting to increase their positions edged up 18% from 16%. As a result, the net gain turned negative, to -11% in January compared with 1% in December, the first subzero reading since June 2005 and largest negative figure in 10 years. The survey also showed that investors' weighting in Japanese equities (overweight minus underweight) fell to 52% from a record 61% last month, the first drop since August.
"Global investors' investment stance toward Japanese equities has weakened significantly," said Merrill equity strategist Masatoshi Kikuchi.

Nikkei likely to fall again as concerns grow about possible shortening of trading hours by Tokyo bourse. As TSE closed market 20 minutes earlier than usual yesterday due to system overload, may cut trading hours again if heavy transactions persist, players will remain nervous about hunting bargains, traders say. Concerns about prosecutors' probe into Livedoor also weigh on sentiment..

 

Actualy I checked the DOW at about 2am and things weren't looking too good

BUT

ASX200 is now up about 40 points!!!!

 

Good example that sometimes, Market is moving in the very mysterious way..

 

For those following markets

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200601/s1552356.htm

 

Hmmm.......that one day 70 point fall on the ASX200 the other day looks like it may get eclipsed Monday.
Mind you it went up about 50 points the next day and a further 20-odd points in intraday trading the following day.

What do you think we'll see Monday........off 80-90 points?

 

Hmmmmmm.....XJO moved up last two trading days but volume is not impressive, so anything is possible.

 

Hi Tropo.

I heard some commentary this morning predicting about a 50 point drop for Monday?

Whether it be 50 or 90, at least we can be sure it's going to be a fairly large RED number. What happens in the days and weeks to follow will be even more interesting. Will we get a good rebound or not......

 

So, watch for the support at 4680 (XJO) - previous resistance!!

 

So if we get a fall of more than 174 points over the next couple of days things should get exciting?

Is that right Tropo?

Just trying to get a handle on these resistence levels etc.

Would the next one be about 4620?

 

.

Rick,
We may go down, but hopefully not to 4680...(4730/40)
I would say that, the next number below 4680 is 4580.

 

Alan,
IF we go down we will get rebound!.The question is from which level ?.
After all market developed strong trend and any hiccup (pull back/sell off) create a good buying opportunity.

 

Tropo,

Looks like we've found support at around 4780. She's off 70-odd points and holding down.

But which way from here???

Cheers,
Michael.

 

IT may well be....for now ....(watch close today and check volume on XJO 30 min after close)
Do not forget that we have got: 3 trading days this week (+ 2h) ALSO CPI report on Wednesday (if I am not wrong)which may be negative...
MARKET TALK:
Aussie 4Q PPI Positive For Inflation Outlook Australia 4Q PPI on-year growth of 3.0%, vs 3.4% in previous quarter, lowest rate in 6 quarters, says UBS chief economist Scott Haslem; adds data positive for inflation outlook.
AND >>>>
Crude oil
Upside bias, double bottom minimum target 72 and overshoot to 79-81 is on the card..(the biggest worry !!!!!).
Gold :Interesting notes
Global annual production of gold is estimated to be around 2500 tons which is equivalent to about 1% GDP of China and India adding together.
Assume China and India central banks increase gold reserve, as one of the measures towards USD diversification, at the rate of 1 tiny gram per capita per year, this may represent a demand of over 2000 tons of gold.
How about the effect of additional demand from global civilians, investment and hedge funds?

Medium term upside bias, dips to 480-500, if seen, maybe good chance for accumulation, targets 600..
DOW:
Resistance at 11050 appears to be pivotal, if there is successful stabilization above key trendline resistance 11050, we may see extension to 11700/50, if not, we may see correction back to 10300, 10000..
S&P 500:
Downside bias below 1300 line as we see a classic 5-wave structure since Aug-2002, weakening of upside momentum plus U.S. property boom is leaking steam, expect current correction to extend lower to 1200, a bit down the road, zigzag correction to 1100 line is in the radar..

Apart from that = So far ..... so good !!!
Stay

 

Would that be a support level at around 4580??

 

OSS,
The way I see this, support is at 4580 with extension to 4549.
The difference of 31 points I would treat as some kind of "buffer".
Happy writing ....

 

Did my eyes deceive me or did I just see the ASX200 up 55 points?

 

Yep,

Over 4900 now! Won't be long and we'll blow through the 5000 barrier!!


Michael.