Brace yourself

Discussion in 'Sharemarket News & Market Analysis' started by MichaelW, 19th Jan, 2006.

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  1. Alan__

    Alan__ Well-Known Member

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    Nicely surprised! :)

    With the DOW up about .9% I was expecting maybe 30-40 points rise today, but 55 is good too!
     
  2. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    It's not bad so far. Watch close today.
    Next level (minor one) before 5000 is 4965.
    Keep $miling !. :D
    :cool:
     
  3. MichaelW

    MichaelW Well-Known Member

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    Commodities bloodbath hits stocks, $A

    Ouch,

    Last time I looked that's a 70+ point correction today as investors dump overheated commodity stock.

    Full article here:

    http://afr.com/articles/2006/02/08/1139074261991.html

    ASX200 was at 4830 last time I looked which is a couple of percent down on the 4943 close of a few days back, but where to from here...

    Stay cool :cool: (Thanks Tropo ;) )

    Cheers,
    Michael.
     
  4. Alan__

    Alan__ Well-Known Member

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    Hmmm.....it'll be interesting to see what affect this has on NavraInvest in the next few weeks.

    On the surface I would have thought, relative to the market , it should be a positive for them.

    If they've stayed their course, they should've been selling out on these rapidly rising stocks and putting it into cash.

    Cash may not give fantastic results but it sure looks good compared to something that just went plummeting down past the window!
     
  5. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Michael,

    Yep...commodity/OZ $/resources down. Oil may hit $60.
    Nikkei right now is down 354 points...
    We may bounce back from today's low (4825) but XJO is sitting right now on the support line (just). :eek:
    So, next levels to watch : 4770 and 4680 (I would be surprised if we revisit 4680 again - but this can happen):mad:
    Market was overdone - so current pull back was imminent.
    Unfortunately we missed 17 points (from 4983) to hit 5000.
    Maybe next time.....
    Until than .......Be :cool:

    PS - Interesting comment:

    AUSTRALIA WATCH: Long Lazy Summer For Rates To Continue
    Australia is in the midst of its most stable economic period in 32 years, with monetary policy adjusted just once in the last 26 months. Having met on Tuesday for the first time in 2006, the central bank's policy-making board elected to keep the official cash rate on hold at 5.50%. The last time mortgage interest rates were this stable was between April 1970 and September 1973. Central bankers would think it horribly premature to declare the fight for price stability won, but it's as close as they are ever likely to get. Remarkably, the benign interest rate environment has been won against a backdrop of rising world energy costs and has been accompanied by a house price boom. It's another milestone in Australia's recent economic record which includes a decade and a half of uninterrupted economic growth, record terms of trade and a 30-year low in unemployment.
    What's more, the long lazy summer for monetary policy in Australia looks set to stretch on. "The next change in interest rates is so far off in the distance that there is little point worrying about the likely size or even the direction of the move,"
    Craig James, chief economist at Commonwealth Securities.
     
  6. Demoman

    Demoman Member

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    Alan,

    I hope you are right. So I wonder,as Michael asked, where to from here ?
    Would it be time to start buying them again ? Or way too early ? Fascinating stuff.

    Cheers

    Jared
     
  7. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Would it be time to start buying them again ? Or way too early ? Fascinating stuff.
    Cheers
    Jared[/QUOTE]

    Double bottom on XJO (Jan. 25 and Feb. 8).
    If broken down we might see 4770.
    You are right. It is fascinating game but sometimes it is very frustrating.
    :cool:
     
  8. Alan__

    Alan__ Well-Known Member

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    DOW up 144 overnight.

    We should see a nice little rise in the ASX200 today. :) Of course, it's that much nicer after recent falls. :D
     
  9. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    You are not wrong !! :D
     
  10. MichaelW

    MichaelW Well-Known Member

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    The worm's turned and she's given up all the early gains to be slightly in the red at noon.

    Lets hope there's some fight in the old girl yet.

    Cheers,
    Michael.
     
  11. Alan__

    Alan__ Well-Known Member

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    Hmmm.......I expected more? :confused:

    Anyway, presumably intraday trading is what it's about, not just closing prices.


    :)
     
  12. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Yep .......We'll see what happen after lunch :confused:
     
  13. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Yep ...It's very frustrating at this stage.
    Intraday trading is a daytrader's game. Closing price represents market sentiment (to some extent).
    Market is waiting for FED announcement tonight - so market is nervous.
    We may close red today. :mad:
    :cool:
     
  14. MichaelW

    MichaelW Well-Known Member

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    With an hour left to run its looking more and more like closing in the red...

    :cool:
    Michael.
     
  15. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Yes....It may/will happen. We may loose approx. half of the yesterday's gain.
    Interesting, which way market will go tomorrow after the announcement. :eek:
     
  16. MichaelW

    MichaelW Well-Known Member

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    Tropo,

    Yep looking down overall, and that's with BHP posting a 2% increase on the back of its announcement of a record half year profit! BHP is the big hitter in the market, and even it being 2% up hasn't stopped the market as a whole closing in the red! Dangerous times...

    Cheers,
    Michael.
     
  17. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Michael,

    BHP alone is not going to stop XJO. Herd madness/mentality is unpredictable.
    Tomorrow it's another day in the 'office'. We'll see what happen.
    Yep - times are very tricky I would say...
    :cool:
     
  18. Alan__

    Alan__ Well-Known Member

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    DOWN 29 for the day!! :eek:

    Oh.......it's good I'm not relying on the fortune telling business to put food on the table.

    :D :D
     
  19. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Alan,
    Hahahaaa....Same old story = buy on rumor & sell on facts,
    29 points down it's not that bad. Could be worse... :rolleyes:
     
  20. Glebe

    Glebe Well-Known Member

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    5000 - so close, but so far!