Brace yourself

Or then again it might just keep tracking to heaven in a straight line!
So far - so good

Looks like another day in the black. She's currently up 30 points and looks like testing previous highs. ASX200 traded intra-day to around 4930, and previous high close is 4957. Not far adrift now!!

"If not next number is 4924/29".
Top for today (so far) is 4929.2 and we'll close today in the green (perhaps between 4924/29 )
Where did you get 4957 from as a previous high close??
It's not such number on my screen

Bring on 5000 I say, then its all blue sky.
Unfortunately blue sky is above 5049.....
5000 is another "bus stop" if we break 4982.6
Until than .... stay and keep $miling !!

 

Tropo,

Yep, looking good for a close at that sort of level. 4925 right now at 2:30pm.

As to the 4957 question, I downloaded the history of the closing prices for XJO and got 4956.7 as the close price on the 01-Feb-2006. (Opened 4929.6, Closed 4956.7, Low 4929.6, High 4956.7)

Cheers,
Michael.

 

as the market rises strongly
Is the gap between, navra and the asx closing?

 

dkmc,

YES!!!

And, as posted above, I'll do a peak-to-peak analysis when the ASX200 tops its previous high to see what incremental value NavTrade Retail added above the index by its DCT methodology.

For now, check out the attached graph. Note that the yellow line which represents the "underperformance of the index" has turned down at the end. i.e. Navra is catching back up to the index. Its got a long way to go to completely catch the index and I don't think it will get there, but at least that yellow line is now moving in the right direction. i.e. outperformance.

Cheers,
Michael.

 

Hahahahahahahaaa..... Good one Michael !!
Good luck my friend !!
Still ....

 

Current range (XJO) = 4929/24 & 4868/60

 

Might be a bit tighter than that. It looks like its trading around the 4900 mark +/- 20 points. So, 4880-4920. You've got it at a +/- 30 point range of 4870-4930 which isn't too far out. Right now its at 4895 so is pretty much in the middle. If it trades up again tomorrow then we'll be back at the top of that range.

Just need to break through that barrier then we'll test the 4957 high, clear that and 5000 then we'll see some real growth potential.

Frustrating ain't it!


Michael.

 

The range I am talking about ( 4929/24 -4868/60) is not for today only, but bottom of it may OR may not be hit today or tomorrow.
It makes no sense to set levels for one day only, unless you are a daytrader.
XJO needs to break NOT 4957 but 4982.6 (top so far) on the way to 5000.
Growth potential (as you said) we'll get above 5049 (not above 5000) IF we get there sometime in the nearest future.
I agree it is frustrating.

 

Tropo,

Hit that bottom today. Currently showing at 4862, but has been below 4860 already in intra-day. Steady decline line too so may close below 4860.

Down 60 points today is not a pretty picture. More resistance than I thought at these levels.

Will need to be VEERRRRYYYY patient.

Cheers,
Michael.

 

Broke my 4860 ( - 5 points so far)
Wait for close........12 min to go....
Should bounce back a bit....

 

O.K....
If down again next level/s = 4811/00
If up - we need almost a week to get back what we lost today (70.7 points)
Stay

 

Mate,

XJO closed down 70.7 points for the day, not 67 points. Closed at 4850.6! Looks like its broken out of that bracket and downwards. I agree the next level is the support line at 4800. Problem is we've now seen double peak at the low 4900's with second peak below the first one. If it tracks back below 4800 then look out! We're then back to support levels around 4600.

Note: All other markets down overnight too. Gold is up to US$562 and Oil back up to USD61.41. Looks like the clouds are gathering...

Cheers,
Michael.

 

Made correction above = 4811/00
Next few levels down = 4780/70 & 4680 again-very important level
NO support at 4600 IMHO.

 

what are you two on about, it goes up, goes down
if it hits this level it will go higher, and break resistance
then again it might not
is this a science?
flip a coin!
enjoy the day

 

Sure it's not a science...
I am just crunching few numbers...That is all.
Why do you think that is anything wrong with us ??

 

Troppo
I like the banter / updates!
I hope the volatility is helping navra's fund, although I have no idea whether current volatility is above or below average - are there any fundamental or technical indicators for volatility of the whole asx?

I also like Alan Kohler's market wrap - podcast
http://www.smh.com.au/business/podcasts/

Listen to it 2x / day for an excellent summary of the market

anyone know of anything similar?

 

dkmc,
Navra system is set for volatile market.
I think that current volatility is not big enough, but I may be wrong on this !!.
In case of current volatility (above/below average) as far as Navra's system is concern, you must ask Steve.
Current market is good for daytraders/short terms traders based on the intraday action.

I am not aware of any fundamental volatility indicator (I am tech. trader) but one of a technical indicator is Chaikin's Volatility Indicator which compares the spread/range between shares/index high and low price. Bigger the spread/range, higher the volatility.

If you like Kohler's summary - stick to it.
Too many different opinions from different forecasters will make your brain boiled.
Personally, I do not listen to any comments about market.
Graph and levels which I calculate are giving me information I need.

A propo tossing the coin...
I know one trader who is using Astrology (+ few other tools) to calculate levels, and his accuracy is pretty amazing
Stay

 

Tropo,

Bounced back 1% day. Right back in the middle of that trading range now with the XJO sitting at 4895. Not quite back to where it opened yesterday, but at least it bounced. If it had kept tracking South then it would have indicated a likely change in market sentiment. I think we're still bullish and resources will pull us to new highs. I reckon we'll break 5000 sometime this month.

Anyone wanna place a friendly bet?

Cheers,
Michael.

 

Michael,

Yeeeeeeeeep...At least we have got a trading range for a time being (4850-4929).
I do not think that we'll go South (down)!.
Weekly graph is still very bullish!.

Well... you know how it is.....up and down from time to time....
Practically we have got 3 levels up to break = 4929, 4982 and 5000
So ...... Fingers crossed !!!
PS = We need turbo now!!!!
Keep $miling and stay

 

Some more numbers to play with:
4896 is Gann's square of 12. The XJO overshot today (only by 5) but may be the XAO will catch up in the next day or so.
Other interesting key points are anniversary dates - read March 11 = September 11 - out in six monthly increments. March usually provides a few turning points, Sept 11 semi anniversary, Ides of March, etc. Lets see what shapes up.

Distributions - points of interest. At the end of January and February the fund was showing 12.75%+ but pulled back quite significantly in between times. What would the effect be if distributions were taken monthly instead of quarterly so as to capture these highs more regularly rather than being pulled back mid month! only to make up lost ground. Not to say that this is going to occur every month of course, but maybe Michael (kudos number cruncher) could run a theoretical for the last 12 months!!