Trading Chartists say markets may continue to fall

Discussion in 'Share Investing Strategies, Theories & Education' started by Simon Hampel, 31st Jul, 2008.

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  1. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    Last edited by a moderator: 17th Sep, 2016
    Simon Hampel, 31st Jul, 2008
    #1
  2. AsxBroker

    AsxBroker Well-Known Member

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    I guess they haven't read "A random walk down wall street"...

    Why does the first guy have his eyes shut for a second each time he is talking to the camera?
     
    AsxBroker, 31st Jul, 2008
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  3. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Hmmm.....
    I would say that they probably read both :
    ‘A Random Walk Down Wall Street’ and ‘A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street’ ... ;)
     
    Tropo, 31st Jul, 2008
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  4. crc_error

    crc_error The Rule of 72

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    Charting is like looking in the rear vision mirror when driving a car
     
    crc_error, 31st Jul, 2008
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  5. AsxBroker

    AsxBroker Well-Known Member

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    Maybe their car is stuck in reverse? ;)

    It's the same with fundamental analysis, which also looks at past performance to make a judgement of what may happen in the future.
     
    AsxBroker, 31st Jul, 2008
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  6. crc_error

    crc_error The Rule of 72

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    actually fundamental analysis looks at the current value. If you look at the PE and its 30, then you know the current value is high, but if it has a value of 10, then you know the stock is cheaper. How ever you do need to look at future potential profits, are they expected to grow? remain the same or decline. Then you can decide if its worth 'paying up' for a higher PE stock.
     
    crc_error, 31st Jul, 2008
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  7. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Charting is based on defining psychology of all market participants.
    If you can see it in the rear vision mirror, you must be a very ‘talented’ driver :rolleyes:
     
    Tropo, 31st Jul, 2008
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  8. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    You are making several basic assumptions here - which may not be valid ... the first is that a PE of 30 is high and a PE of 10 is low. How would you know this? These aren't absolute values - they are only meaningful when taken in the context of historic values and comparing with other similar companies within the same industries.

    If a particular type of stock historically sells for a particular PE ratio, then a stock which currently shows a lower PE ratio may well be considered cheaper ... even if that lower PE is still 30!

    Fundamental analysis looks at historic information as well - it's about determining the relative value of a company compared to past values ... there is no magic formula which says "company X is worth $Y".
     
    Simon Hampel, 31st Jul, 2008
    #8