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Trading China will be in trouble!

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 29th Sep, 2011.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    A article is very valuable for sensing the market depression with a very fearful but excellent title, "Chinese growth to 'halve by 2016': survey!" Who would be fearful? Who would be excited?

    Would BHP or RIO be fearful? They should since by simple math that means they could lose their shirts since they would have the interest service problems if you know roughly how much BHP and RIO have spent in the munging projects.

    I do wonder in 2007 why these most global investors could not predict GFC? I do wonder how many global investors have predict China could need so much IO now. Even in 1987, China were voted to be collapsed with whatever the reasons. I do wonder how many global investors in 1st Jan 2000 could see IT bust. I do wonder how many global investors now could see anything clearly in 2016. These so called most global investors naturally should not know what significant things would be ahead.

    After I read this article, I do feel funny. It seems a group of shirt losers get together to predict who has high probability to lose the shirts someday later. Wise people are few when money is the topic. Genius are full of Wall Street in good time and bloods and gloomy prediction are full of Wall Street in bad time. "Halve by 2006" means some significant things in politics, economy, finance, and all of the fields in China. If anyone could not stay in China for years, how could give the useful anticipation not prediction for China's future. Even China tips of then, I could not see it have any help for a market business people.

    I feel it definitely would make warriors in XAO feel more fearful which should excite the shorters to short XAO down. The shorter don't care about the absolute value but relative prices. Most of us could write and read but not all of us have chances to short. I don't have the gut to short so I should worry as CEOS in BHP and RIO.

    Yes, what if no one buy the IO any more? Short and short all for the tipping off China!

    I just think how I could be extremely prudent to buy, very wise to sell without over-optimism, and hold the future economic castle with moat until the bums and genius all make the money.
     
  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Don't sell anything to China!

    A article, "China's 'resource imperialism' a risk for Australia: US analyst" is a very interesting article for market players.

    China's 'resource imperialism' a risk for Australia: US analyst

    1. China is buying resources for its usage rather buy and sell for profit(he seems have trading background)
    2. China is buying the resources for the coming century if not centuries(1.4billion people's resource for a century by buying with real money since 2003? Need to check the R/D quality).
    3. China's 'resource imperialism is a risk for Australia and no more no less(Very general but no policies and plans for this so called imperialism).
    4. What China is doing is legal and far-sighted thinking(Is it what he really want to say?).
    5. Advanced nations have being done a lot in short-sight thinking(it seems true but all of great things within 100 years happened in advanced economies if we don't talk about crises)
    6. ultimately the currency system will collapse(not now?)
    7. The heavy demand of resources from the developing countries of the world will put a strain on finite resources, with oil certain to run out this century(he doesn't know shale oil seemingly)

    Should Australia sell its resource to China? Don't sell or sell without losing sight in future? Who give or what cause the high foreign reserves in China?

    Does Aussie audiences would act as the warriors in XAO? Run first and think late? I dislike Labor before but now I feel Labor much conscious than a lot of Aussie. A gold mining in your backyard would make more troubles than you have nothing!
     
  3. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    China need to build Casinos

    In China, gambling is illegal but people just want to find chances to bet. Since its first day of Chinese highly controlled stockmarket, it is a huge Casino for gamblers and machines to produce the money for the new fundamental capitalism buds in China.

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/rats-gnawing-at-chinas-stockmarket-20110929-1kyp8.html

    All know China needed capitalism market at 1977 after the Cultural Revolution. It was obvious Communism itself could not provide enough foods for their believers. China since then tried hard to balance between the great Communism and the cruel fundamental capitalism. When I first put my toes in England I did feel England is the heaven of the poor workers.

    Did you know what communism to ordinary Chinese then? Beef + Potato = Communism Society, the poor worker's heaven! There are a lot of stages for a poor nation to be better and rich. Unfortunately money is hard to make which has been told in "wealth of nations" for long time. I read it too late just after I came to a univ for my wrong selection of engineering courses but it was the best selection then.

    Have advanced economies being lost the good things to motivate people to create asset, make fortune, and become richer since we want the society fair to the people who just don't want to do anything? Bad things need to be stopped in some resolution but it often leads one or few people say words for all.

    Go to extremes would result in losing shirts which is true to a individual or nation. In my view if we don't talk politics and don't intend to overthrow the government, China seems more capitalism than Labor's policies. Sometimes I just wonder why some Aussies are very strong and sound very clever but just do nothing and get rental help from the government in my rental houses.

    However some people just fail to do anything even they look clever. A society should not throw them away. US seems a little bit cruel but its Congress could pass some law to force the banks lent the money to the people who just could not service their interests.

    Do hope all of nations and individuals don't go extreme. Every time we go extreme we get our own troubles in market and life.

    In this sense China needs a lot of Casinos which needs a lot of resources. Do we sell IO to China? I guess if China has a lot of Casino, its bourses would get some basic conditions to be gambling free.

    Do wonder why XAO swings so much? We have Casino. So retail players in XAO could not afford to gamble but the big boys could short the market legally. It should not be classified as gambling since they are professionals.

    ***
    Before I dislike to talk about China since knowing its best and worst too much. To avoid extreme in the market, we have to be self-aware and environment-aware. We have to be honest to ourselves to get us better no more no less.

    XAO is in a very turbulent time which would open all of the doors for bad news and tough words for anything. It is a excellent time for us to check what the crowd is thinking when we feel bad or worse than the market.

    To invert anything I read toward its opposite end and do inversely inverting again. It is a necessary process to make us think, organized, analytical, and self-reliant.

    We don't need to agree with each others if we all could make the profit for long enough time.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 29th Sep, 2011