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Trading CTO: extremely good news vs extremely bad time

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 27th Jun, 2012.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    It seems my bet on CTO is right. Its price jumps up from $0.053 to $0.06 in this selling season or no-tomorrow days.

    It is no just a gold hopeful but producer. All of us know the credit market is nearly dead to the pennies of resource companies. All want to get more and more discount from them. Under this extremely bad environment, all of things drop down is normal.

    The beauty of CTO is it goes up at the end of financial year and when all worry about EU's dire impact to China, US, and of course Australia. The causes of the shooting up must be very strong. All of good news are bad and extremely good news are so so.

    ***
    I am happy to see this shooting up. It should be up before 1st July. It should be the facility for the losers to get tax deduction. It is abnormal but good one.

    The normal things are Greece in default, China tip off, No US houses needed, Resources at the edge of huge holes, and then all should sell something for their mouths.

    It needs to go a little bit deeper to see the reasons so that I could make judgement based on the facts and future probability. Just feel it should go back its bottom means, $0.07 if not $0.10 very soon!

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    ***
    CTO has released the technical report Mineral Resources and Reserves 2012 for the Charters Towers Gold Project

    This is the first time the silver Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves of this project have been quantified.

    1. The gold Ore Reserves have increased by nearly 90% and the Mineral Resources for the Project have increased by 10%.
    2. The Probable Ore Reserves are outlined below:-
    * 620,000 ounces (19,000 kilograms) of gold (2,500,000 tonnes at 7.7
    grams per tonne gold), and
    * 410,000 ounces (13,000 kilograms) of silver (2,500,000 tonnes at 5.1
    grams per tonne silver).
    3. The Inferred Mineral Resources are outlined below:
    * 11 million ounces of gold (25 million tonnes at 14 grams per tonne gold)
    * 7 million ounces of silver (25 million tonnes at 9 grams per tonne silver)

    ***
    More important matter is:

    1. The Project is in gold production, with the necessary infrastructure in place
    2. It has sold over 95,000 ounces of gold and 45,000 ounces of silver since production commenced.
    3. Australia is the safest resource bases!
    4. All in Australia have been in downward trend for years, which make it a very attractive darling if Gold hold its price more than $1500.
    5. EU and failure of Aussie gold hopeful have discounted the extremely good news in extremely way.
    6. This new resource report would put a lot of buffer for the coming tsunami if it would be in.
    7. If EU could not drag the sky down CTO seems have chance to shoot up into the sky even no one now expects it would be in the moon.

    What is its fair value?

    ***
    What does it mean? The initial investment has been paid by some ones when its price drops down from $0.5 to $0.05. The buyers with holding trait have paid the cost for me!

    Definitely some would sell for less losses in this price spike. It is understandable but I do feel it gets game change ticket. Since 2006 all of gold hopefuls have been punished by the market. We want to get the gold but don't want to pay the cost.

    My problem is I failed to lock the good enough profit so that I could not have cash to buy great discount now. I will do my analysis for my next buying time for high winning probability! I have to win over myself first.

    ***
    By the way ARU holds its position very well around my buying price, $0.21.

    AKK lost 0.5cents from my buying price, $0.023. It will stimulate its new horizontal well very soon. The crowd doesn't guess but follow the extremely good news only. The extreme bad market sentiment scare the trader away from anything with any risks. I bought it a little bit too early.

    The crowd sentiment is very powerful. However AKK is a matter about the oil and ARU is the matter it has got the fund at $0.22.

    ***
    1. I will buy only when I believe the sellers are selling on fire with the eyes on the cash flow, new fund, and market sentiment.

    2. I will sell only when I feel enough or when I recognize my own errors.

    3. I will not lock me into traders or investors' boxes.

    4. I would like to be wise and intelligent for the chances with affordable capital for my annual cash flow first and fortune in future.

    I am fearful to miss the trains but I do know EU could make things very ugly. I have bought enough and the market could be worse after the coming Thursday.

    ***
    Timing is not important but everything!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 27th Jun, 2012
  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Trade hold for a takeover bid!

    It is very interesting that it asked the trade holding.

    It was said that this trading halt is requested pending the release to the market of an announcement by the Company in respect of a placement and proposed takeover bid, such release to be made prior to the commencement of trading on Friday 29 June 2012.

    There are two options: CTO wants to takeover others so it needs the placement or CTO would be taken over by others but need due-diligence by CTO; if failing of the takeover, a placement would happen. I guess it is the first option but...

    ***
    What's the premium to the market price if it would be taken over? What's the place price? No losses and no worry! A good bid at this time and its price should be much lower than the means of long term.

    1. It has proven resource
    2. It needs capable management to get the resource out
    3. It seems the bidder would get the control on the gold at lowest price
    4. It is a extremely good example to service the warriors who just want to get out!

    Warren Buffett just buy from the depressed people at extremely bargain prices for golden business which only could be true with enough money and good management.

    ***
    What would happen to the shareholders who have held long enough? Lose some if not all! What about my holding? I try to be wise and intelligent but am I wise enough or intelligent enough?

    29 June 2012 is a stake day: EU summit would produce something and CTO would announce an very important event, it has the resource but seems lack the money to get the gold up to the ground. Things in EU would affect CTO but the bid seems would go on if it has to.

    We just could not see tomorrow very clearly. How should I play CTO if no bid on it? I hope I do need some lucks: the bid price is high enough or the placement price could provide enough buffer for the EU tsunami to be gone.

    ***
    Rechecked its announcements:

    1. its $50million investment announcement in January 2012 was not materialized
    2. its announcement of the Mineral Resources and Reserves 2012 was on 21 May and failed to excite the market.
    3. its price spike happened in this morning before the trading halt
    4. it seems the placement or take-over bid has been known by some in the market before the trade holding and the price should be better than $0.053.
    5. its book value is $0.17: P/B >= 3. The bid price should be between $0.05 - $0.10
    6. it has problems to extend the production for a steady growth of profit due to the management and credit limitation.
    7. its shareholders have been in self-destructive mood for more than 4 years.
    8. in my feeling the price should be not less than 8cents since usually it should be higher than the market price before the bidding.

    ***
    Don't want to make any declarations but try to see into the day of 29 June 2012 and make myself ready for this day!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 28th Jun, 2012
  3. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    ARU: the good one in ruins?

    With new injected money, sentiment of the smart money to the rare earth, and extremely low price to its historical mean, it moves up as the market as a whole.

    Today it breaks down the barrier price $0.21 and prices itself at $0.235. The rate is 9.30%, a very good sign, for its tomorrow and the coming new financial year.

    It is good movement even we don't know what would happen in EU but the world needs the rare earth and hope it is start of the self-fulfilling process to be reborn.

    ***
    It was, is, will be dire in EU. It is always hard to change structurally to individual or institute once their behaviors have been formed due to the mental or structural frames.

    Human usually would try all to sort out their mind in ruins and usually once a new perception is accepted, they tend to stick to it for some time. It is always good news for a share to move against the dire even we don't know when we could change mind again exactly.

    It would take time for the perception changes if the change is necessary. It is true for EU and ARU.

    [​IMG]

    ***
    German Chancellor Angela Merkel shut the door to joint euro-area bonds as a means of lowering Spain's borrowing costs, saying they are the “wrong way” to achieve the greater European integration needed to stem the debt crisis.

    It is very understandable. Merkel should be very stubborn or perseverance for her perceptions about the EU, German, and her missions. She wants the EU and would like to pay the cost but she does want the control on the budgets of poor nations.

    Good to see Spanish made a plea for help. Hope the peripheral nations could give up the sovereign enough.

    1. EU was setup for a European Federal dream.
    2. Federal needs necessary controls for its direction and outcome for common good.
    3. The peripheral nations need necessary control for their own matters.
    4. They all need to give up some and get some.
    5. However it is hard since all we want more.

    ***
    Merkel said “I fear that at the summit there will be much too much talk about mutual liability and far too little about improved oversight and structural measures.”

    “Oversight and liability have to go hand in hand. There can only be joint liability when adequate oversight is ensured.” I could not say it is wrong but how they could quickly get compromise for EU or themselves or simply just take or leave!

    It was said that

    1. Spain can't go on financing itself at current borrowing rates for long.
    2. “The most important thing today is being able to finance ourselves in the markets, that's the main issue.”
    3. “And on that point Spain, Italy and other countries are going to push for reasonable decisions to be made,” using the “available instruments.”

    However EU has not the available instruments in its existing structure. Some breaking through must be made or...

    ***
    It seems that EU has to change and the early the better. However who pay the bill or cost for the change.

    Merkel said

    1. “I decisively reject the presumption in this report that the principle of collectivisation takes priority.”
    2. Rather, individual countries must “keep to agreed rules” and raise their competitiveness through structural reforms, using the best in Europe as the standard “rather than mediocrity.”
    3. “The sovereign debt crisis shows us daily that deficiencies in one euro-zone country can cause difficulties in the entire euro zone"
    4. “It also shows us that national answers aren't enough to secure the euro area's stability.”

    She is pressuring the peripheral nations. Could she get she wants? Could EU with war history be compromising for their common good even for sometimes some would be in depression?
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 28th Jun, 2012
  4. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    CTO: placement at $0.08

    CTO issued a announcement to place 8.5 million shares at $0.08 and 8 million options with an exercise price of 0.12 in 2015. No news about the takeover bidding.

    It is very good news in this dire market situation at least not too bad for anyone who bought at around $0.05. It seems if a bidding happen the price should be at least 30 or 40% higher than this price. It seems some big shareholders is inserting the poison pill for the takeover bidding.

    Yes it only raised $683,500 but a very significant touch on CTO. CTO has the gold in the ground. Its cost is reasonable to dig the gold out. It could let CTO run for sometimes and add more weight for bargaining in the bidding if it would be.

    CTO has problems but who is problem free in this market conditions. The good news is in this dire market, its value seems could not be discounted down anymore.

    ***
    There are still a quite big gaps between my imaginary market and real one. It seems I will have these gaps since without matter how smart or genius I am(let alone I am stupid enough in the market as shown in last one year). The problem is not the gap but my attitude to the gap.

    Just watch a movie, some words are true and nice about life so they should be true and nice to the stock market:

    But its also true

    that the person who risks nothing...

    does nothing, has nothing.

    All we know about the future is that it will be different.

    ...

    But perhaps what we fear is that it will be the same.(wli: to people death is forever)

    So we must celebrate the changes.

    Because, as someone once said everything will be all right in the end.

    And if it's not all right, then trust me-

    It's not yet the end.

    ***
    We all change and will change by force or by our selection.

    I could not beat the market down so I have to change to work with market for what I choose and give the outcome I want to get with a lot of human errors.

    It is fun to change, find the market would be happy to do even with a lot of guess and the less the guess the better.

    CTO is at the end of extremely low. Its mean for years, if it could not die in months, is far higher than its price now. Could it turn its bully up? I don't really know.

    ***
    I don't want to buy and hold since I don't want to be passive in the stock market. There are black swans and it is the time more and more black swans appear since we have Internet and too many genius!

    It is a kind of speculation for any actions. Each action means some imperfection. We are not perfect and then we need to protect us from our imperfection

    So that we can be balanced between the perfection or imperfection or between living and death. It seems best if we can touch the death but not dead time by time when everyone else struggle in the imperfect stock market.

    ***
    It needs gut, knowledge, vision, and then discipline about the yourselves and environment. It is about the control of your imperfection for the perfect outcomes for human!

    EU crisis tell a time at an end, which started when the cold war just finished. We didn't want the wars any more but we could not get rid off the national interest conflict. EU is to stop the war for common good but it fails to form it without structural faults.

    No war is great but no interest conflict is impossible. How to solve the interest conflict in low level so that the conflict could be in the course at higher level for better human future.

    1. Winner want to control
    2. Loser want to protect their remaining interests

    This needs some vision and gut more than I choose AKK, CTO, and ARU this time. Fortunately I don't need so great since I want to profit with good enough protection for what I have accumulated.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 28th Jun, 2012
  5. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    XAO: ready for shocks from EU!

    XAO just gives back all of gains it claimed this morning.

    1. EU crisis was not one as GFC, seemed held by XAO
    2. 4080 is not too far when XAO rushed into GFC II image. It looks the betting point for EU makes or break all of us!
    3. Worse EU would make China worse and Australia worse but US just shows some positive force.
    4. EU is not European States so it could not lead the world in one direction without challenging.
    5. XAO feels perplexed: short but worry long lead by someones it doesn't know so far; long EU is a place holding billions of peoples.
    6. Paradox to all.

    Do feel EU could not trigger GFCII this Friday! If it does, I have cash to survive until I get a new job, good or bad.

    It is not perfect so it is not in the end. Happy in trouble with some margin of safety!

    Cheers for all of market or economy stupids!
     
  6. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    CTO: $10million at $0.08

    LionGold put a placement of 125,000,000 new CTO shares at 8 cents per share, representing a premium of over 30% to the last traded Citigold share price on 27 June 2012 for CTO to raise $10,000,000.

    A interesting point in the announcement is $0.06 of the share price on 27 June 2012. It seems LionGold is the bidder for bargaining gold reserve but doesn't mess any working relationship in this risky time. It seems the big shareholders want more than LionGold would like to pay.

    In the bargain process, it is key you have to try all for best bargaining even if no EU crisis, the bidder even could not get CTO at $0.20. Its gold reserves in the ground is very impressive.

    ***
    You have to use the environment to get your goal at the lowest cost. LinoGold seems know it very well. Me? I get used to play for sure outcome in my life. I have long way to go as an artist to play in the stock market.

    By the way I am very happy for this placement even it could not reduce the pain of CTO's long term investor. I am an investor too even the time period would be changed for holding since I know future is not sure now.

    ***
    I have the responsibility for my cash flow annually
    I have the responsibility to lower the cost of my portfolio
    I have the responsibility to service the warriors in the ruins with good enough protection on myself
    I have a improper brain for the stock market, which have to be changed.

    When we know the direct and indirect responsibility for the life and loves, you would change and know the truth Enough is enough!

    It is really fearful to feel the ticking down of EU bomb... Fortunately I know enough is enough a little better. Wow, what if tomorrow all feel they would be die and then into the perfection?
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 28th Jun, 2012
  7. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    EU fears and full of blood

    There are wars no one can win! Is EU crisis a war of this kind? Looks quite like. Just guess what would happen before a losing war start with losing guts, which would change your behavior in the stock market greatly even not positively in odds.

    Before a war starts, if you are responsible for the depressed warriors, you should send some service team for their needs. The key is finding the worst point but the warriors are still have chances to survive. It is stupid to take the corpses of the warriors home. It is not about how genius you are but you have to get the senses who could be survival! We have good heart to save everyone but don't forget it is impossible! The war could make things worse and much worse and you have to keep some alive service team in your back up! They should be used only when you feel the war just finishes and you could work desperately to save as many as possible of the warriors.

    I do feel the logic is very simple if you could let your heart to sense it and hold it in the worst or best cases. The problem is I don't have this mind to sort out for the simplicity, which is said as the will of the God.

    ***
    EU crisis and its summit this evening would provide some excellent chances for us to learn ourselves and stock market. It is a crime to waste the tsunami to save yourselves and the depressed and hopeless people in future in next valley of death!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 28th Jun, 2012
  8. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    What ahead?

    EU gets its growth pack and short-term measures for its peripheral nations. It provided what the market expect.

    AKK: 0.023->0.018(-21.2%)
    CTO: 0.053->0.06(+13%)
    ARU: 0.21->0.23(+10%)

    It is not too bad from the speculation in the stock market. But speculation for good enough profit needs the trend, which needs some analysis for season and lucks.

    Here it is a challenge that we just really could not define what is enough ahead. It is a guess work and could be wrong.

    ***
    The loss from AKK was big from the views of day traders or investors who needs the quality and reasonable price. Usually the price of quality(should be blue chip) could be sensed or evaluated by the market. So it needs big enough capital to get enough profit or gain.

    The speculation needs surprise, which tend to be too good to be true or too bad to be true. Intelligent speculation needs the identification of turning points, which usually start from some turning events.

    AKK: needs the event that the stimulation of its horizontal well would be successful. God knows the result only even its tenements are in the gold shale oil field. It surprised me to see it down to $0.018 but in hindsight it was very reasonable. It was the time no traders wanted to hold anything more than a day!

    It needs the crowd sentiment OK also.

    CTO: needs the crowd sentiment OK. It has got funds $0.08 but investors don't play it and traders don't dare to get it.

    ARU: needs the crowd sentiment OK. It get the funds $0.22 but investors don't play it and traders don't dare to get it.

    ***
    The crowd sentiment can be changed very quickly and slowly. That is why Warren Bufftett uses value or means as base and buy when the discount to the value and means reasonable.

    I really want to buy the discount to value or means but I feel it is extremely hard to overcome the psychological barrier. Rolling the snowball needs gentle and constant force and care plus you don't need to worry about your mouth when you roll your balls.

    Good thing is now I know I am a speculator and know I need to control the risk. That is the reason I just bought AKK, CTO, and ARU before the EU submit. However in hindsight I bought them too early. I should know the crisis and the end of financial year should help each other to beat the risky things down much worse.

    ***
    What's ahead? I do feel XAO should get some room for breath after it run in the ruins for more than a year.

    Yes it is something of guess work. I need to get less and less to guess. So I have to know the blue chips onto the earth. It means I have to get into the value road.

    Why Warren Buffett doesn't like gold? He said it could not produce any income even it could produce the gain:

    1. income: the short-term needs
    2. gain: the fortune in long term.
    3. base of analysis: value or discounting future profit or calculated means.
    4. little money: gain is important since you have to work for others.
    5. big money: income and gain both are important.

    Why Soros like gold sometimes? He wants the gain and tend to buy gold when it is deserted by the crowd and he could hold without gain for years if not months.

    ***
    AKK, CTO , and ARU have been deserted by the crowd for years.

    1. They are little fishes and could not generate the income.
    2. Each of their gains are based on the surprises and naturally are unpredictable.
    3. They are much lower than their means in a decade but these means have been distorted by the resource booming. They can be worse than this means. Fortunately EC crisis has pushed hard enough for the discount.
    4. Intelligent speculation can be ended at the end of gambling. It needs time-average and diversification for more safety but if you do so you could lose the chances to get rid off your hungry of the money.
    5. Big money comes from what you would do after you get your first bucket of gold.
    6. You can abuse your first bucket. Gut is the necessary conditions to get more than anyone else but it also can drive you to destroy your first bucket of gold.
    7. So it needs wisdom: when all want to get something sell this something to them. When all doesn't want something, find the reasons for the calculated means.
    8. Nothing can be sure from calculation in the stock market. Even wisdom is not the sufficient condition for your fortune.
    9. If young and wise or have gut and lucky, you have more chances to fly based on your first bucket of gold.

    The impending risks of EU disintegration forced the toughest bargain hunters to be losers. If I was wrong I would be wrong about the crowd sentiment. Hope I am not wrong and if I could get some killing I would not abuse them.

    ***
    EU up, US up, and Asian up, which is a new start or just another flower to lure more traders into the hell?

    If all would be up for months, it would be another recovery.

    If all would be down for another a few of month, it would let more declare their death of finance.

    This weekend I would do some exercises to pick up a quality: its price has been down for years, its yield is high enough, and its worst just happen in 2010/2011. I also need to think about what price is reasonable one.

    "Buy when the wall street is full of blood?" It needs cash reserve to hold before all forget the blood. Is it good idea just at the first day when everything looks good?

    ***
    Could my rebalanced portfolio move up more than 30%? The rebalanced action happened after the market has crash them down more than 80%.

    I really don't know. However I would lock the profit if it happens. What if locking profit happens? I would wait for next correction or crash. IT bust, GFC, and this EU crisis have given me a lot of lessons to sense the crowd sentiment and environment.

    I still hold BKP with the belief it has a game change stake, the shale oil. Its prospective covers tens of kilometer square meters. If it has the shale oil, it would change my game forever...

    You must be lucky enough in the stock market. Do you lucky enough? I don't know.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 29th Jun, 2012
  9. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    The crowd hate uncertainty

    Markets hate uncertainty.

    Uncertainty over the euro-zone debt crisis and the global slowdown has led to greater market volatility. In Australia it has been worse.

    In the face of uncertainty, the crowd or warriors in the stock market, sell what they perceive to be riskier assets and buy what they consider to be less risky assets.

    ***
    They will sell from more uncertain parts of the world first, and then from less uncertain parts of the world.

    So once the storm passes by, the most discount shares of the market are the pennies. If you buy the pennies at their lowest and the boom comes back quicker than the crowd expect, you could get killings.

    Markets hate to miss the booming train.

    ***
    Without matter you are speculator or not, you have to know these personality of the crowd. Take EU summit as an example:

    1. On the one hand, you have a grand experiment, the euro, that was doomed to fail.
    2. On the other hand, you have a bunch of people who have so much at stake that it doesn’t.

    Whatever happens will have a massive impact on the market. EU summit delivers in the early hours Friday, with an agreement to let rescue funds directly recapitalize banks and potentially buy government bonds.

    1. XAO up
    2. Euro soars as EU takes step
    3. DOW increase dramatically
    4. No black Friday or Monday!

    It’s no surprise to see overall declines in the quarter through June 27, with Latin America down 17%, India falling 13% and Europe losing 11%, according to Morningstar Inc.

    ***
    The acceleration of the European debt crisis has begun to have a contagion effect on emerging markets/

    Several of the historically strong emerging-markets [and] international funds have begun to see the growing European debt crisis affecting their net asset values. Plus, the dramatic economic slowdown in India and China has begun to negatively affect international and emerging-markets funds.

    If Europe blows up, then European mutual funds and ETFs could decline significantly. If the United States goes back into recession, then international companies doing business with the U.S. are likely to suffer. If China’s attempt at a soft landing becomes a crash landing, the global economic repercussions would be negative.

    Terrible but it seems more hopes around now. All could pause to run for a breath.

    ***
    After such hefty declines, the crowd can’t help but question whether now is a good time to take another look at the risk assets such as Australia shares or worse the pennies.

    I just felt the Aussie crowd went too far in its doomed road. I did know if EU went to the hell, Aussie crowd could push everything worse.

    I picked up 3 fishes. Each of them is the sacrifice of the crowd depression. They all just got some big enough funds from someone. However I do feel irritating to see how stupid I was in the year 2011/2012.
     
  10. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Hmmm...

    Hmmm......
     

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  11. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    No one can gets lessons without pains.

    Not all can get the lessons they need.

    Too many at 50s and after, lose the desire to learn the lessons but want others to think they are perfect.

    Yes, it is perfect to "Hmmm..." which are wise, intelligent, or awareness?

    When you just could be "Hmmm..." you are approaching to the perfect, the death.

    At the end all will die but is it too early for your Hmmm?