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Trading Despair, hope, and war of attrition

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 14th Jul, 2011.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    31st Mar, 2010
    Bad and very bad even bargain hunters cry!

    Australia stock market has been in consolidation for nearly two years. The bull and bear both are not strong enough to lead the market. No leader in a war mean all of warriors in the war would have to look after themselves and the crowd could not do much and the war continue. It has driven all of defeated but hopeful warriors in depression into the sideline.

    Most of market players, who have guts to act actively in the market are some sort of bargain hunters with the hopes to buy extremely cheap. As any human hopes, the extreme cheapness has its catches too. The consolidation has last too long and a lot of bargain hunters have seen their capital in unsustainable loss and the paper profit if they had, turned into paper.

    It is not happy time but gut crunching for the bargain hunters. Actually they have cried and failed to figure out what happen. I am one of them. Things in the market are really bad and very bad.

    It was surprising and shocking!

    No too many bargain hunters have experiences of this kind of war situation since most of them. The resource boom is still there but the market just has being grind over in a consolidation channel to consume any resources that bargain hunters dare to put in.

    You could hope but the despair has been enlarged when you thought it has diminished greatly and then the profit and capital just were lost. No too many bargain hunters buy for their strategic goals but hope to pick up gems for quick money. They don't have the cash reserves for hold once the losses are there. No one could sustain the grinding pressure from both of bull and bear if they just run in the market.

    I overlook the cruelty and duration of this consolidation, which is not because Australia economies are in crash but the worries and the collective despair for quick money. I know the importance of a safe corner in the depressed market but I failed to keep enough cash reserve in my corner.

    It was surprising and shocking, which means the failure to be self- and environment-awareness. It is a failure to know I have to know in the market. I have to take my personal responsibility and have to work hard how to get the consequences less significant without letting the grinding eat my gut and the passion to continue my mind updating. The feeling is bad and I have to consolidate my position and figure out plan to deal with the consequences!

    A war of attrition to consume the bargain hunters

    [​IMG] is the link for XAO 100 year price movement.

    The market would be the war place for attrition of the bargain hunters who don't have safe corners as shown in the picture above in the last one hundred years. The history never repeat itself simply but human sentiment would be similar based on what they feel the present reality and future prospective. IT bust and GFC are the years to reckon the exuberance of irrationality and it should follow the war of attrition logically, in hinder sight and retrospect. Unfortunately I didn't get this message from these picture I regularly to read and ponder!

    It is clear and obvious now that no one could win in the grinding of bull and bear. There are reasons you could have hopes but you have to move just around the corner to survive first and get the chances second. You could not run in the way when the grinders chase after you!

    It is a war of attribution in the market! Bear and bull have lost too many warriors and they are changing the strategy to attract the short-sight bargain hunters to consume them. So if despair is too strong, some good news would issue intentionally by Mr Market. He knows what the bargain hunters wart and then he would issue the bad news if hope is too strong to let the bargain hunter burn the money on fire!

    Bargain hunters are usually very conservative and tough to pick up the bargains but they usually don't have vision for long term and they usually don't keep big enough cash reserve for long term. So they got the bargain to the value but they could not hold to let the value shine again! No money, value, margin of safety, and discount could be safe on the fire!

    I feel the pains on the fire since I used up all of my cash reserve in my corner. It is the sign that my corner which was safe in GFC but was risky now! That is terrific!
    Last edited by a moderator: 14th Jul, 2011
  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    31st Mar, 2010
    Do you know what's the war of attition?

    A process to be wise for self and environment

    If any goodness in the complete loss of paper profit in the despair which has been strengthened since the April of this consolidation, it is I have been forced to read, learn, and think what market is, whom I am, whom the herd of market really is, what the sentiment cycle of the market is, and what fine difference and effects of the war stages.

    And I want to see how to be not a warrior but a wise ordinary old man to get his corner safe first and just go around the corner with the guarded hopes. I want to record my feeling and sentiment in this consolidation when the hope and despair exist together. Before I could do anything better, I have to be self-aware. I don't know the cruelty of the consolidation and I don't know it could last as the market herd could not be cheered up. I just believe the margin of safety to the value would automatically reward me without the environment support!

    I don't know all could be burnt into ashes on the fire. Nothing could be safe under the grinding of bull and bear when they fight for their own victory. They need to consume the warriors without matter you are the member of herd or individual and independent fighters. If you don't have the corner with enough cash reserve you could not avoid the fate to run before the grinding machine when it moves to grind the resource into dust!

    Life is a journey to make it colorful so you could not speculate something!

    Why do you so tough on yourself? The hope to realize my personal legend at my 70s is not direct and immediate, which needs the faith and belief with the wisdom and knowledge about self and environment. To a old soul, you could not work as warriors in any field but you could be wise and use the wisdom to the field which need the wisdom but don't enforce anyone to retire!

    Life is lovely since we could make it at our own will even it could mean the pains to match yourselves into the ever changed environment. Life is a journey to use the art of the life to make it colorful even everyone have different definition about what is colorful! I do hope when I have to end my life I could say I have done all which I want and the world allows me to do!

    We could make the things happen if it could happen! What these things to you? It is after you not me! What if you fail for your personal legend? It is impossible since if I dance on tap for it until my 70s, it is a personal legend by itself! The color of the life! What is a money? A media to exchange for what you want, right? It is a great thing for a life but could not replace what the life want!

    Don't darken your life in the market?

    Why do you fight to die financially with the cost to darken your life in the market? Don't blame, curse, google for excuse to our incapability to make the media as much as you can in your hand. Don't check yourself in the social moral standard for the fair deal in the market. You could lose while you could win and any winning makes the catch for the winners!

    Do you know the catches? Do you try to protect yourselves in 24 hours, everyday, every year if you stay in the market? Nothing is sure but if you fail in the market, it is sure you fail to know some catches!

    The sky will be there is my faith. The corners for our life must be strong enough and we could not just trap ourselves in our corners without going around the corners is my belief. War attribution need right strategy to wear down the effects of bear and bear would go into dormancy when the relief and optimism come back in the market! We should go around the corner for real and true chances.

    Don''t act but if we take act, we should be sure we get some cash back to our corners by locking profit and stop the attrition of our lovely cash and resource. Get the resource and supplies for your necessities from the war of attrition for a sure chances with the probability more than 90%!

    Things could be worse and you have to be ready?

    Don't say you would never lose in the market. It could happen to you even it is not your fault. Market just reward the right time and position. We all could miscalculate something. Don't allow you lose too much under any ideas and ideology and prepare if you completely fail in the market, what you should do.

    Could I get my English good enough to sell wisdom and intelligence in words? Don't know but it could be my last resort and hope market could give me the chance to get my English and mind good enough for wisdom and intelligence. If no other way to go, it is not too bad for a old man with the English as his second language!

    Tough to be self- and environment-aware doesn't need to be desperate but dance on tap for what you need and must to do!

    Do feel better since it seems I have got some sense about the self and environment again!
    Last edited by a moderator: 14th Jul, 2011
  3. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    31st Mar, 2010
    The war of attrition

    What is the war of attrition? How could you be sure you are not be attributed by this war? No too many bargain hunters know it. Once they fail to know the war of attribution, they would lose or be dragged onto the new slaughter table setup by Mr Market.

    Attrition warfare is a military strategy in which a belligerent side attempts to win a war by wearing down its enemy to the point of collapse through continuous losses in personnel and materiel.

    Do you notice the characteristics of the war of attrition?

    1. No any side could overwhelm down another side for a decisive victory
    2. So it hope and choose to wear down the enemy to collapse
    3. The losses are those of the personnel and material

    Warriors are resources to be consumed

    So without matter who would win, the warriors in the war are resources to consume or used up. So the victory should be the losses of the personals who would be consumed.

    The war will usually be won by the side with greater such resources. A good example of this was during World War I when the Allies wore down the Central Powers to the point of capitulation.

    So if just think about the consequences of the war to resource, and assume we like to be the resources for victory only, we should sense who is stronger and join the army who would win.

    However if you really care about your own fate, you should avoid to join the war of attrition logically. If you unfortunately were recruited because some reasons you could not control, you should choose to find a way to get out of the war with less damage.

    If you could not get out and the damage has been done, you have to be alerted that you have great chance to be killed or capitulated or become casualties unless you could be deployed as back up forces and you are lucky enough that no bullets would aim at you!

    Bargain hunters for quick money are warriors

    The GFC crash has defeated most of moms and dads. The only personal resources for the consolidation are the bargain hunters who have short-sight for quick money.

    Usually bargain hunters are more conservative and have escaped from the fatal damage recently but have the experiences to lose the shirts. They don't understand the war properties have changed after GFC crash. They could not understand they could not sustain the wearing down of their capital if they trade too often.

    The consolidation has last for nearly two years and has made too many chances for the bargain hunters to be grounded by bear and bull together. They have lost more than they could win. They have started to feel the pains and cried loudly now.

    It is sure no one know when the war of attribution could be end since no one know how long the warriors and resources could be significantly consumed and could not continue the war any more. It is similar to the consolidation, it could last much longer than the fundamental allows since despair doesn't want to give up!

    If any bargain hunters don't have strong enough cash reserve and lock enough profit for the necessary resource consumption, they would have only one option, capitulation. Once they capitulate, they would lose heavily and lose the chances to run when bull take the charge.

    However it seems that most of the bargain hunters don't realize the cruelty and fail to have a strategy to avoid join the war of attrition. They should not since otherwise the bear would put all into the water. Collectively the bargain hunters are the hope of the market future for everyone.

    A war to be avoided

    Military theorists and strategists like Sun Tzu have viewed attrition warfare as something to be avoided.

    1. In the sense that attrition warfare represents an attempt to grind down an opponent through superior numbers, it represents the opposite of the usual principles of war.

    2. The principles of war is that one should plan to achieve decisive victories through maneuver, concentration of force, surprise, and the like, without significant personal losses and resource consumption.

    3. Since the the overwhelming victory, the resources and personnel in the enemy side could be taken for rebuilding after the war.

    On the other hand, a side which perceives itself to be at a marked disadvantage in maneuver warfare or unit tactics may deliberately seek out attrition warfare to neutralize its opponent's advantages. If the sides are nearly evenly matched, the outcome of a war of attrition is likely to be a Pyrrhic victory.

    So if you really want to be a warrior, you should act independent and plan for your fighting with highly maneuver, concentration of force, action to surprise your opponent for your decisive victory.

    Most of bargain hunters are good citizens but not trained as warriors. Few could understand the above and would not like to spend the time for their winning plan in the market consolidation when it lasts too long!
  4. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    31st Mar, 2010
    What do you feel when running in attrition?

    Really feel despaired on myself

    Never feel so bad in my life, much worse than that when I saw my paper profit burning into ashes in IT bust.

    The more I read about the war of attrition, the depression, the despair, the hope, and the market sentiment, the worse my feeling was. I feel frustrated, anxious, disappointed about myself and the disappointment and frustration becomes despair about myself at last this morning. I could not read and ponder about self and environment anymore. I was capitulated and had to stop to do anything relative to the stock market.

    I never so disappointed and despaired on myself in my life and market playing. I really worry about everything in myself. I want to cry as anyone else who lose the shirt in GFC since I do feel sick about myself.

    However I know no crier for the sky and himself could have his life especially the market life. I could not allow myself to cry in the darkness. I do need to sort out the reasons why I run in the war of attrition hopelessly. I do need to be sure I am not insane again in the darkness.

    I don't think I was born for market. Instinctively I tend to figure out what I want, make out the simple strategic road map, and then strike on what I should do, which is great to dig a hole in the office but will fail me in the market. Market is much more than a hole. I need to replace the despair with hopes.

    Known fails to work and Unknown magnify its effect!

    I was not trained for market too. It is a headache! Could I train myself and get the right personal traits and behavior? It is extremely hard to change your personal behavior and characteristic. Could I change them to what market want? Where are my hopes?

    Anyway, to know where are my hopes, I need to dig deep on what the causes of my mistakes and try all for lessons. Could I use more KNOWN to change? That is a issue I feel very frustrated, disappointed, and despaired time by time.

    It seems Known doesn't work as I expected and Unknown just use my weakness in my personal characters to drag me into the market environment I try very hard to escape. It is a war and naturally will consume the resources and personal dream even collectively each of the bear and bull could declare his own victory.

    If you could not get resources from a war place, you could not keep to be alive and rigorous as you wish! Could I win out against my poor personal characteristics in this war place, market? I enjoy to play in the market but how could be sure I could not be consumed under any conditions in the market?

    I know I might go too far but if I want to get my safe corner, just go around the corner, take the safe chances, and accumulate the resources to play in the market I don't have other choice. I could choose to escape but it would make me more painful.

    The mood and emotion are too powerful

    We are human, our thinking and actions are guided by our mood, emotion, and judgment. I am really frustrated, disappointed, and despaired about the fact I am insane regularly. In the market, if you want to stop your financial future, you do need to insane!

    My daughter(she trained in psychology and accounting) just joked me, "if anyone wants to win in the market should take your emotion score as the barometer to buy and sell!" That hurt me a lot. Is the man naturally insane and he has only one option to be a warrior? That let me feel hopeless!

    It is not just about what we know and don't know. You know you could not win but you just let your mood and emotion take the charge, you deserve despaired and hopeless. I don't think I am not a man without discipline. I don't think I am a layman about the market as I was a decade ago. The problem is consciously I try to play in the market logically, rationally, and systematically, but subconsciously, habitually, and instinctively I follow my mood and emotion, which are mastered by the market sentiment.

    It is pointless to show how I could act logically, rationally, and systematically if I could not change my personal behavior in subconsciousness, I would make more mistake since I could not stop it always consciously!

    Behavior and disposition are the base

    It makes me very disappointed and despaired since it seems extremely hard to change your behavior which is modeled or formed by what you learn, do, and think in your past. It is the engine or psychological and biological fuels of your life.

    Do I have the personality to change my behavior? What if I make some silly mistakes again and destroy my financial foundation before I could finish my personal behavior updating? If I don't have the gift to play in the market, how long should I take to get the gift made in home?

    Yes, it is definitely not a issue about the IQ but the disposition, as Warren Buffet highlighted. My disposition seems not very good for my market playing. I am ambitious, which could turn to be aggressive, careless, confusing about the difference between indirect and direct hopes, and then act without prudence about the risks hide in environment. I am optimism but it could move into over optimism and hurt by the optimism biases.

    I want to change and realize the importance of the behavior and disposition. I have put the time to change them. Why couldn't I still act as a naughty boy in the market who just play for his feeling? The causes seem not so simple as I thought it at glance. Could I make the gifts I want in my study room? It seems clear now even I want to update my mind but I don't put enough efforts to stop the damage caused by my old mind! I really don't know how to get them.

    In this sense, I should be despaired. No one could get what he wants if he doesn't know what he wants, how to get what he wants, what probability for what he wants, and how to increased the probability for what he wants. Thanks the despaired feeling which put me into the stance to think about the root, which seems quite hopeful!

    Too much hope with the behavior against the hopes!

    Yes, in despair I need the hopes. But I do have too much hope and my behavior doesn't support my hope. So I appeared as I was too emotional than rational. The margin of safety could stop me to buy anything when everyone in the market is manic but could not stop me to be over-optimism when everyone cries in the market!

    I joined the war of attrition voluntarily and emotionally. Yes I accept the logic to buy when the market is full of blood but I never thought there are the risks while the bloods are dried up. I know I need to be businesslike investor but when the environment fit to my disposition, I would be insane and forget all of the rules which not just work in one time!

    Do I know hopes? Roughly but not deep enough. So far I have put a lot of time to understand the bad sentiment in the market. I should say I know them much better than before. To get a right disposition to the people with the disposition like me, I should know the hopes, relief, optimism, and the biases around them since naturally I do have too much hopes, optimism, and too easy to be in relief from the pains!

    One of my friends, who is a psychologist, said I don't need to go so far. But my problem is if I could not go far away enough about human nature, and put the knowledge into my sub-consciousness I could not follow the logic in the ever changed market. I will break down any rules when I am hot and excited. It is not theory but it is the fact that even all of market warriors are crying I could let my over-optimism overwhelm my consciousness!

    You are trained and have behaved as a dog for 50 years in the market, right? Now you want to be the swans, is it painless or effortless process if you have little resources to let the experts to take operation on you? No borrowed system could change me and save me if I could not put the rules into my sub-consciousness, my operations on my portfolio and my action in the market, and my blood or my disposition. I will fail if I could not win over my instinct and update it!

    Words about hopelessness and despair

    It is obvious that hopelessness is, quite literally, a loss of hope. But what you feel hopeless or despair? Why do you feel hopeless and despair? Could we get some positive feedback to warn us we may be astray away from what we should hold and do in the market?

    Hopelessness is described by referring to a physical sensation of deflation and a perceptible loss of an otherwise unnoticed and intangible support. Why market could feel hopeless as a whole? Could we find the causes of the hopelessness or despair? Why do we feel hopeless and despair as the market as a whole? Why do you feel hopeless as the market feels? Is it really no hope at all or it is because you were insane and then you have no choice without hopelessness on you and market?

    Though typically unnoticed and intangible, that is not to say that the presence of hope and hopelessness is invisible. On a pre-theoretical level of understanding of feelings and moods, I would say that moods are more diffuse than feelings and tend to be enduring and pervasive rather than episodic, though the boundaries in this area are rather vague.

    When the onset of hopelessness is sudden, a sensation of deflation is often acutely felt. However, when its onset is stealthy, there will be some point in a cumulative process at which its more pervasive presence is noticed.

    In this sense, you should feel the market is in hopelessness, hope, relief, and optimism. The question is not what you feel about the market but do you have the capability to invert your mind to question the hope, the hopeless, the mood, and set up a trustful probability calculation formula of the bad or good thing ahead with the help of margin of safety, good organization of your portfolio based on the reality, and clear goals to achieve no loss but profit only market playing!

    Reason in attrition: became greedy and insane

    I made a very silly decision in August 2010, that was I would not lock any profit anymore for the financial year 2010/2011. This decision was made without giving any consideration about market reality and the logic, the self has to change with the changed environment and leave enough buffer for the things worse than the self's expectation.

    The big profit locked then made me very happy. I started to feel euphoria again and felt I could control my emotion and then my performance in the market, which actually was the confidence I could twist the market reality as I hope. However could anyone predict what will exactly happen tomorrow? It was a feeling in ignorance and arrogance.

    Ignorance and arrogance would only lead us into insanity and hubris. Insanity and hubris would lead people into the place where they have to pay the cost for their ignorance and arrogance. I became very greedy and projected the past performance into the future. The market was not very bullish then but bullish enough for my insanity and euphoria.

    I believed(even I didn't admitted then) I was excellent and capable to know where market would go in short term and long term. I never dared to say in words but I did much aggressively. I turned to be over optimism and over-confident. Actually I turned to be insane and lost the necessary prudent in the market.

    I was in excessive irrationality of euphoria and I would go to the opposite extreme in sentiment sooner or later.

    1. used the name of rebalance to sell the shares just based on the price rather than the probability analysis based on the probability distribution chart in price. Most of sale are to reduce the tax only.

    2. used the name of diversification and the length of the market consolidation as excuse to buy in full capacity when the market had great risks to be more bearish.

    Once you get greedy, the mistakes would follow one after another; everything would be the materials to support the insanity and irrationality including the life logic, common senses, and rules and guideline. We are human and the wisdom and intelligence could be used to destroy ourselves since we could distort anything by ignoring the context and conditions to life logic, common senses, and any good ideas.

    Believed black swans but good one only!

    Market as any war place is full of surprise, bad or good. Therefore based on the definition of black swans, it should be rational to think that market is a place full of black swans. I like the black swans especially the good ones.

    I wanted 10 baggers, which is not wrong but when I started to believe I could get 10 baggers from my dirty-cheap fishes in the financial year 2011/2012 without consideration of the market environment, I use my expectation to replace the reality. Black swans don't appear always and they need some context and conditions. Since April 2011, I had expected 10 baggers more than I carefully evaluate the dirty-cheap fishes and the conditions of the market. So that I became insane.

    IMI was a bad example to choose what I should buy. It was a share without any value more than its shell if it could not close the door. Its only chance for anyone profit is someone wants to put their business on list by buying the shell. If buying at the proper price, it could be quite profitable once the back-door on list happens. However it could be extremely dangerous otherwise.

    So the proper strategy to play this kind of fishes is buying for losing all, which is not happen usually, and should buy when the toughest bargain hunters have been trapped. However since I turned greedy, I paid too much for this share with over-amount capital.

    Black swans are market animals which no one could tell when and where it would appear accurately. They could be good or bad. When you want to get 10 baggers, you have to prepare for the falling knife and use the proper way to filter out the effects of falling knife to your portfolio.

    I could not say I didn't know it before May 2011 but I acted as though I didn't know! It is not about what we know but what we evaluate ourselves and market realities when the market sentiment synchronized with your feeling.

    Natural disposition of hope and despair

    The natural disposition of a newborn baby, in health, is for growth. The idea of growth itself is not connected with any particular value. When growth is thought of in terms of progress or improvement, then values are fused in the notion. Persons may progress or improve, but tumors only grow, strictly speaking.

    When tumors grow they spread rather than progress or improve. If we say that a tumor has ‘improved’, that is generally taken to mean that it has shrunk or receded rather than that it has grown. Viruses, like tumors, also spread. Just as some physical pathogens can spread, so too, can a psychological pathology. We may speak of despair infecting a community or sweeping through ranks of soldiers facing certain death. Each response is a 'do-noting,' to a perceived spread of despair and its corollaries like apathy.

    When the market becomes depressed, the people would become indifferent. Do you want to buy at lowest price? If yes, you have to know this feature of the depression. Hope is a key element in each of these works that argue for resistance to despair and pessimism.

    Please note I still believe XAO has been oversold and its value should be much higher than its current price. However XAO never dares to go its own way. Usually DOW down 30% it would down 50%; While DOW recovers from depression, XAO would look around for more sign of the recovery and its recovery is usually much less than DOW; At moment anything around the world down XAO would be down. It is its feature we have to take into our concern. However i could change its mood in days without any good news.

    It is not mistake to buy in XAO. XAO at last will follow the value. If you could buy value now its price should have quite good margin of safety. However you have to ask yourself "Could you have the cash to support you to buy and hold for value?" If XAO and its shares provide more discount to value, you should at least not sell on fire and if possible to buy more and reduce the cost for the profit.

    My action was not driven by goals but insanity

    Yes I didn't realize the market was a war place then but I could not say I didn't know I should achieve my strategic goals and check my decision against the scenarios of the consequences which would reinforce or damage the goals.

    Goal driving means we have to be aware the chances and risks and know the gap between our imaging world and real world. Goal driving means we have to get our hopes and we have to know difference between the direct and indirect hopes.

    1. In the market when we decide when to hold and unfold, we should know it is a process to develop our direct hope in foreseeable future for profit.
    2. Direct hope is not emotion but the anticipation of the profit the market reality allows.
    3. Anticipation is not a expectation but the evaluation of the winning probability, resource allocation for the probability, the preparation of the case which is worse than normal probability the market reality displays at moment.
    4. Anticipation is a process not flashes of some great ideas and the corresponding soul euphoric reaction. It involves the necessary procedure to divide a goal into sub-goals with sound operational requirement to make the main goal becomes reality.
    5. Anticipation actually is a job and it has the similar requirement for our jobs in our offices and workshop even this job needs great passion, judgment, and decision in the environment we don't know enough, fail to try our best to know it enough, and get lost without knowing who we are!

    The market is too huge and our expectation for quick money is so overwhelming, which attract us to use our cleverness and genius to beat the market down. We become the captive of our expectation as we stay in the hell. We fail and lose the shirts, which is so unsustainable and then we get lost in the way. Insanity becomes our feature. In the insanity, we lose the basic senses even they are so obvious to the people live under the Sun.

    Mos of us live in the hell of insanity. The insanity get rid of our capability to foster the direct hope. We could only be warriors in the market even we feel something wrong with us but we struggle not for direct hope but looking for the data full of biases to support our insanity.

    Since 2004, I spend a lot of time in mind updating but I fail to find the devil of the insanity in my soul. I regularly come back to the hell of insanity for the power I could not get in the market. The power is from the direct hope, which would give you the goals and probability. I would learn how to turn my market playing become a job which is to get the direct hope in my target time horizon.

    Could I do my job on my direct hope and try to get my goals achieved with my efforts and work? Could I turn a job into a business while I try to be a businesslike market players? What is the business plan for my market playing business and then I could use this business plan to be sure I could vindicate my direct hopes in the market and lead me to move away from my insanity? How could we use the business plan for our goals and making us to be organized, disciplined, self-reliant, and analytical first, and then open the doors to know how to work with others with the shared direct hopes?

    I have the passion but I am not good enough in the market. I read a lot but still have not got the necessary business senses! Business needs the road map, which will guide our effort to make the direct hope be true and good road map should make us to be organized, disciplined, self-reliant, and analytical. All of good things and hopes need the road map for the necessary procedure to guard us not astray around. It is the time I need to stop me astray around!
    Last edited by a moderator: 17th Jul, 2011
  5. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    31st Mar, 2010
    Behaviors define we are gamblers or not!

    Warriors don't have clear goal and plan for the goals

    The market is a war place for bull and bear. It is full of chances and risks.

    We jump into the market for quick and easy money due to our hungry for money. Generally we don't understand business and don't know the basic elements of business. We want to make killings but we don't have achievable goals in short term and vision for long term, and then we usually don't have trustful strategy and plan.

    Even we call us as traders, investors, speculators and some of us are extremely confident and proud for their tools and systems, naturally we are gamblers times by times. Gamblers could win or make killings if they are lucky but collectively they could not know when to hold and unfold just based on their feelings and the price charts since resources are scant. They could be genius but if genius are not lucky they lose the shirts.

    I am a warrior times by times

    All of my failure in the market so far are due to I follow my feeling and become greedy and fearful. Why could hopes could be generated from the ruins? It is because the ruins are the chance generators for businesslike investors, who have the vision for long term and goals for short time. They are happy to buy at extremely low price which means the business cost would be reduced greatly with strong cash reserve.

    Not all of us could buy and have the capability to buy in the ruins. Chance never come lonely without risks. When you have the goal, the vision, the gut to get the chances, you have to get your business plan to identify the chances, evaluate the risks, organize the operation to reduce the risk to affordable level, make the profit goals time by time, and lock the profit into the vault for the ongoing life and future development.

    Behave differently from the duck!

    We know we should be organized, disciplined, self-reliant, and analytical but we don't know how to be so or we know but we don't do what we should do. Seriously I do feel disappointed on myself. I have no gift to be a good market player. It takes me more than a decade to know a fact that I need a business plan and I need to be objective driven rather than feeling or emotional driven!

    Yes, we have to give up the behavior as warriors and gamblers first and then we may have chances to be a businesslike market players even we still could be traders, investors, and speculators! You walk and behave as a duck, you should be a duck even you could pretend to talk as a swan! I am a duck so far from my walk and behavior in the market even I still believe we could be swans. So I will start to mull how to write down my goals and business plan for my goals.

    Don't believe I could walk as a swan in the market very soon but it is worthwhile to have a try and perhaps I have to try for a long time! Don't say we don't want 10 baggers. That is not the problem. The problem is how we behave in the market and how we make the 10 baggers. Where should we put our first step for us to behave as a businesslike market players and then we could find second, third, and so on for us to be swans in the market.

    No ducks can learn to draw their business plan! It is not a ordinary business to play in the market. So your business plan would need more energy and effort since you have to learn a lot of things and then you could view it as a true business people. It is a real challenge to me. I never do any business before.
    Last edited by a moderator: 18th Jul, 2011
  6. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    31st Mar, 2010
    Plan to act as a swan even all believe you are a duck!

    Failing to plan will plan for failure

    All of us know what we behave defines whom we are. All of us agree if we don't want to be market warriors who desperately fight for bull or bear, we have to be businesslike market players.

    Do we know what the goal, plan, operation, finance and resource, and organization to a business? Do we know our own goal, plan, operation, finance and resource, and organization to our market playing? Do we know how we could get them together and hit out or provide our services to the market warriors when they desperately need?

    Most of us don't know since we never have a plan to know the answers let a plan to work for our goals. Falling to plan will plan for failure. I fail to plan what if the consolidation longer than my expectation, so I planed my frustration, perplex, and despair on myself.

    plan for our wishes?

    It is wrong to say we don't have the plan. Everyone in the market has his own plan. Don't do what we have to do is a plan. We want to "get rich" and have a plan everyday just google for the tips for it is a plan. Failing to plan is a plan to fail. So what should be planed and how to plan is the businesslike market players and the warriors in the market.

    We said we want be organized, disciplined, self-reliant, and analytical. In my view(now only but not before the day before yesterday) they are wishful words only. We wish to get rich. We know the behavior we should take. We are clever enough to know them. But it is even not a hope since hope is about the anticipation about the probability for goodness as goals and your resolution to give effort for the goodness. No hope but just some good goals or expectation of winning behaviors in the market, we cheat ourselves as though we are wise and intelligent but we just repeat to be insane, make the losses, and stop the losses strategically! Who wants to be a warrior who just has the fate to be consumed in the war? We don't but we do act to be traded in!

    All of wishes are euphoriants to let us feel good, which is not too bad if we are in clinical depression or worse and need to have good rest for energy in our bodies. In the war and war places such as market, we could not get our life just on the wishes! Wishes are lies in this sense! 知生于忧患,而死于安乐也: Wisdom and intelligence are born in the disasters and widely forced depression, and dying and are destroyed in the euphoria!

    I wished too much between Oct 2010 and April 2011. I planed the failure. It was a fact without matter how I feel. 知生于忧患,而死于安乐也!

    Plan for the worst and also best: the hope and will result in market relief

    However, the process of mulling and pondering the worst scenarios, dancing on work for chances with the concerning of context and conditions, and researching and writing a plan for your business in the normal life and war time, is valuable and essential to building a profitable and colorful life. No pains no life but wrong place and wrong time to pain would destroy you!

    Mr Eisenhower said, “I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.” A business plan that is not properly researched or that is not regularly revisited and integrated into the business operations is useless. In business, as in most of life, things almost never happen the way we plan them.

    However, the actual process of considering all of the possibilities and calculate the probabilities are critical. It teaches you essential survival techniques at all phases of your business. Yes you have to plan to be a swan and behave as close as possible to be a swan, and then if you could act as a swan until you say bye bye to this world, you are the swan even not an angel!

    If we accept the definition of hope, that is the anticipation about the probability of future goodness with the desire to put time and efforts on the goodness, and understand the worst case would force the wise people to recheck everything for chances and protection, we should understand the hopes are among the depression as light, which could be weak but it would attract the people move toward it. No one could stop this moving.

    I feel relieved very much since at last I start to understand the process of the change from hope, relief, and optimism! All of my faults are I wish not hope so that I lose the necessary protection between Oct 2010 and April 2011! Who could say the market would not be better or worse at a specific time? They are two scenarios each of which has 50% chances! I behaved as a duck so I should be dealt with as a duck! That is the law of the market without matter we accept or not!
    Last edited by a moderator: 18th Jul, 2011
  7. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    31st Mar, 2010
    Be strongest among the depressed warriors!

    In the depression all of depressed warriors are coward and despair. To service them at best, you need to be the strongest in the market. What do they really need in hopeless time? They need the light and hope! If you give the light they desperately need they would like to pay any price since it is the only thing which could bring them out of the hell!

    However don't be greedy when the fearful and poor warriors struggle to stand up again from the hell. Enough is enough and if not enough for the depression, your enthusiasm to be a bargain hunters not the hope light holder would drag you into the hell. That is sad if things turn to be like that as I did before.

    Yes even we are not gamblers but kind swans, we still could not go into the eye of tornado and hurricane to save the dead. If we do so we could not save anyone but commit suicide for nothing. It should be taken as the most stupid action to human, right? A lot of bargain-hunter-type warriors don't understand this basic logic or observation. They escaped from the catastrophic crashing and put them into a situation to lose all when they should not. It sounds sadder.

    Now you should understand why I felt so despair and hopeless on myself. Someone said if god want to destroy you, he will drive you to be crazy!

    Why make the plan as the pass ticket to the hell?

    Not all things could be used for goodness of your home house and your life. You need to know what you should not do for your plan first.

    Stop searching for the perfect business plan format. There are no absolutely right answers. Don’t look for magic in pricey consultants. You need to write the first draft yourself because the process is a key learning step and force you to understand self, others, and the environment. We could not get a plan works in the market without the necessary awareness. No plan will fail you and perfect plan in words would fail you too! Plan is the road map for your goals. It should be absolute right in worst case so that you could be the strongest one in your circle or legion. It should be roughly right when you could get you approach your strategic goals. Don't be absolute right but never allow your plan is perfectly wrong.

    We could not get our business plan in the market as those that Warren Buffett or George Soros used. Some market players hold the flag, "buying and holding," very confidently at the peak before GFC. They don't know the Self and Environment. They don't understand environment encompasses more and much more their imagination, in which there are time and position. Value investment is not a medical pill for our euphoria to let us cheer in the eye of hurricanes. It is one tool to help us to maximize our winning probability.

    We could not use our business plan in the market to ask bank giving us the dirty-cheap margin loans. We have to be very clear that it must be practical, biases free, easy to understand, and efficient and effective. Yes, it should be the gun to shoot the profit for your colorful life with the promotion for your wisdom and intelligence! Otherwise it is better we just run as we feel. Illusion in the heaven would send us into the hell.

    Don't let your plan as the pass ticket to the hell!

    How make you stronger by writing a plan?

    Write to know self and environment for best service for the cheerful or depressed warriors so that you could get good enough future cash flow in worst and best time. Don't forget your goal you plan to achieve and reason your road map, the plan could lead you roughly accurate for what you want!

    Write simply and easily to remember and better mull the logic and consequences so that you could get early warning for chances and risks which force you to buy before warriors start to buy and sell before the music stops in the euphoric party. Write to guide you to buy value in great discount and be sure the value is that in your circle. Leave the cool buzz words and fancy jargon out not necessary but it is not matter if it is your style.

    Build your projections from the ground up. You don't produce anything but you should mull your service from very basic to the extension at the edge of your circles. Figure out what it will cost to make your services or setup guideline to provide the services at reasonable cost. Market has different seasons and you have to figure out how will you acquire new customers in fair market. Sort out how much minimum business and profit could you get for your service business?; When you consider these questions, is your service business even feasible? These are some of the most valuable questions to answer!

    The work you do to find the answers is what matters, not how perfectly constructed the final plan is. Do remember that! English is the tool to sort out your plan to achieve your business goal and it is a sure matter you will use it better and better if you behave as a businesslike market players by planing and playing. Do remember after you have worked hard to put together the best plan you can, stop typing, researching, and surveying. Instead, get out of your plan and surf around in the trading forum to feel the market sentiment who might be your real customers and are in a position to buy your services to cure their pains or get the euphoria they desire.

    Ask the right questions for no loss to your portfolio

    Keep to ask the questions: Are they willing to part with their cash to solve a problem they have? What is the Unique Selling Proposition (USP) you can offer prospective customers? You will not know the real answer until you could identify the time they desperately want to buy what you are selling. This is a point different from the ordinary service. Don't ask your customers to buy your services. If they want they just come to the things they want if they are available in the market. Do be sure your services are there for their desperate needs!

    Warning: Although planning is essential for market service business, premeditated market service business can be a dangerous thing as any ordinary ones. If you create your plan and stick by it no matter what, you could doom your business to failure by being inflexible. Write your plan, and revisit it regularly to change what’s not working. Market is a war place and the war could go on in different form. You could not satisfy all of needs of warriors. Sometimes they don't want to pay anything out for any service. you have to know when you should take holiday or just enjoy your reading by closing the door for a few days, months, or the time when the environment and sentiment is not good for your business.

    Too many small market players set a goal and try to reach it no matter what. Sometimes, that tenacity is the backbone of their success. But sometimes, when they fail to see the signs that the goal might not be the best direction for the business, that lack of flexibility can be a business death sentence. So at the open time, you have to think when to hold or unfold your service. Never forget to close the chip from your table when the profit is big enough for your service. Don't forget any business in the market has its own catches! Do you know them good enough?

    What do business need most?

    Don't forget you have to get profit every year for tax as citizens, for family expenses as dads or moms, for the overlay of your service, for the salary of CEOs of this risky business! What do businesses need most? Not a perfectly written business plan, but a well researched, chances catching strategy, and risk protection plan for fail safe, or no loss, or no harm, if you give out your services to the warriors.

    Don't forget you have to be self-reliant for your business. Business need enough cash to grow and thrive, which a good plan can help land. They need to manage that cash through constant analysis of cash flow. They need a management hub or team that can execute the plan by following some practical, visionary, protective, courageous guidelines, visions, and missions. They need a marketing and distribution component so prospects can access the service.

    Finally, they need repeat customers and referrals if you are really excellent for your business and want to let more good men and women enjoy the equity increases year after year. Think about the hope, the desire, the anticipation and effort for your desire, and the probability to get the desire to be true. Write your plan. Keep surfing around the trading forum to know your customers. And then modify your plan to make the most of what’s working and to stop wasting effort on what’s not

    Great start for your home made legend!

    These are the steps that will get your business off to a great start. If you could planing and playing with self- and environment-aware, you would turn yourself from the ugly duck to a swan, who is liked and perhaps loved by your customers, partners, and then you could make a colorful market life for your home-made legend!

    Who knows? If you behave as a swan, you will be. History said so if the sky is there for you! What if you are swan but no one recognize it? Don't worry or bother about it. Warren Buffett has got the unbelievable successes in the market for his business but someone would use the ethic standard for doing nothing to evaluate him. You should be happy if you are disliked or hated by the people more than 3(in my family we have three people, two thought something wrong in me but so far they tolerate my sins), since dislike and hating means something in their guts have been touched.

    How many people care about a bum in street? Happy to be cared about even the expression methods looks not friendly. I admire Buffett. I admire his gut, his courage, his attitude about the work and job, and of course his money, which could be left for late generations to enjoy or think about! It is a great legend. I like it! I want to make my own legend which I could recall when I could not move around and touch the keyboard!

    The life to make the legend is a happy life and busy life! I enjoy this kind of life! After the pains in IT bust gone, sometimes I just wonder it was not too bad since I could say I have ever lost about $400,000 paper profit with the borrowed and extra $10,000 from my mortgage with the mortgage insurance as capital even I admitted I have some regret always! If I could change my behaviors and get my legend to be true, it would be some colors in my life... It is not a plain color in just a hole digger in the office!
    Last edited by a moderator: 18th Jul, 2011
  8. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    31st Mar, 2010
    I am different without matter what happen!

    Enjoy to be different at least since I am self-reliant

    There’s no feeling like starting your own market playing business with some dream, some hope, some exciting, and some panic since the uncertain future. It is very risky and very challenge. You quit your office job and busy on your work in the market but you could not burst to tell anyone you are doing a business.

    No one believe that. No any experience in business. Never have worked in financial industry. Quite possible no one dare to hire you to clean up the window of the banks. Now you say you open a market playing business, that is a joke. Who ever hear market playing before somewhere else? It is a word for the gamblers and owners of the Casino.

    However I really love this playing and believe I could change myself to be a owner of a small Casino house in the market. It is in the entertainment industrial or psychological disorder health care sector. What is the key to be the owner of a little Casino house in the market? Provide the service and get profit with the probability of winning tilted to me and my service!

    Could I turn the dream become true? Quite possible! Why? Since I know I need to plan and would like to plan for my business. I would like to pay most of market warriors don't want to pay, the time and effort to update my mind. I believe if I get enough time I could change the behavior from a duck, who quack and wiggle, to a say, who could fly to enjoy!

    Have you seen any ducks who like to plan for flying? At least if I am a duck I am a very special one!

    No heady stuffs around me

    No fresh box of business cards. So no heady stuff around me. Have the experience to lose the shirts and don't dare to claim winning. Lower the gesture in case I lose all of my asset I have accumulated from my office job and property investment plus the profit from the dirty-cheap fish fishing.

    All make all of my friends wonder what I am doing. I only could tell them I am retired! It is not very bad. These bad experiences actually have very successfully motivated me to change. I have indirect hope which is at the time about my 70s, which is $10,000,000 cash in hand and I would work hard to find their home in some poor girls and boys. It is probable and not easy to get. That is what indirect hope should be in my view! I am more prudence for my direct hope that is why I want to change my behavior and take my first step to change my behavior, thinking about the business and its plan. I need a trustful road map and put all of my time I could put into this road map toward my indirect hope!

    So I could say I am different even the consequence of my decision could be very bad but I feel if I am not extremely unlucky, it is unlikely since I dance on tap to work for the service business to the warriors. I’ve taken a plunge, or are making the plans to do so. Because I've thought about how to plan for my business plan, I am also more likely than the warriors to get the profit. They are born for fighting. I work hard to service them!

    You behave as though you are very confident

    Yes, I do. Why? I’ve realized the critical importance of creating a business plan. Whether we drive or do business we simply need a road map to guide our ways, a well prepared and properly targeted business plan will help us to achieve the goals that we’ve set for our business by documenting the goals, resources, and processes that will propel our Casino business forward.

    There’s an old adage that says, “Failing to plan is planning to fail.” That is never more true than when it is applied to a business plan. We have seen this phenomenon firsthand when we dig different special holes in our offices. Those ventures that operate without a solid game plan in place are much more at risk to fail than those that take the time to plan.

    Here I am serious. When we say we need to be organized, disciplined, self-reliant, and analytic, how many would do thing for us to be so? 20/80 rule would tell us most of market player are warriors and never think about how to be so!

    Because I've been in the trenches as a warrior with others, I know how valuable my
    time and effort is. Anyway I have started to realize the importance of the basics and then I know the warrior service business in the market is right for me. I would know how to structure it, how to staff it(me only at moment), and the like. I do need to know how to take the facts about my service business and put them on paper in a way that will interest my customer, business partners, or other decision-makers someday later, and how to create a plan that will become a critical management tool for my business.

    So I'm going to dive into the nuts and bolts of crafting my plan. I’ll learn the best tips to be a good business planer, know the secrets of a successful business plan, understand the tactics that just come out of our efforts to get my own business plan, look beautiful or ugly. I have made my gut and get enough courage and my resolution, and prepare to commit myself into the plan and do what I have to do.

    I may still be a duck but I am different today and will be never the same as before! I believe it! It is the time I formally change my behavior in the market. Congratulation to myself!