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Trading DMN: It is amusing time!

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 21st Jun, 2011.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    31st Mar, 2010
    Posts:
    1,292
    Location:
    Perth
    In the market now, if you are rational, you would be amused by the posts in the trading forums. It is bad time for any market players who are blindly optimistic or pessimistic. I have to admit I am very optimistic but try to learn how to be guarded-optimistic.

    DMN has been hit for days since it failed to drill the REE out of the ground. The traders, who were greedy for killings, now use all of their forces to curse the board of DMN. Most of them in HC thought they are perfect market animals but abused by DMN board. You told me you had a lot of REE and now you show me nothing. You are the liar. ASIC should take action and put the board of DMN into the jail! A lot of them use the stop-loss but this time it completely didn't work. The selling storm came in so quick and so powerful and DMN share price just was $0.001, the lowest one the market allows to be.

    DMN has its problem and tried very hard to get out of the shadow of IT bust. You could not blame it too much since the drilling outputs had very clear scenarios: if it had the REE, it would make itself; if not, it would be forced back to the doorsteps of the hell.

    ***
    You have to be honest for your own problem in the market. You fail to protect yourself and then you have to take the consequences. It is not safe to make killing by playing with the dirty-cheap fishes. You could be hurt rather than rewarded. Once you were hurt, usually there are something wrong with yourself.

    For example, IMI was a falling knife I experienced and I broke the rule of diversification. This mistake put the loss more than I would like to take. After I locked huge profit between July - August 2010, I used a wrong idea, "I should hold all of winners for the profit in next financial year." But what if the profit turned to be good enough for my portfolio? I didn't take the profit which was about 40% to my portfolio in March 2011 and then saw most of them gone. We need to concern the long term happiness but we should not damage our health now, right?

    Could you see I lost the sense to be organized, disciplined, self-reliant, and analytical? Who cause the problem?

    ***
    You want to get one dirty cheap fish and hope it is at the lowest price but it could be much cheaper than your expectation before you bought it. How to play the dirty-cheap fishes in the safest way and most rewarding way? It has two contradictory requirement. You fail to get them and you get the shirt to be lost.

    If you really want to cry don't cry in public, which is just amusing the public free. If you always try to provide free amusing in the market, you are hopeless.

    More mulling in http://wdongli.wordpress.com
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 21st Jun, 2011
  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    31st Mar, 2010
    Posts:
    1,292
    Location:
    Perth
    Something we would never know

    It is the dead part of the dirty-cheap fishes, that is there are too many things no one really know until they happen.

    These unknown matters could be fatal if you put your house or too much capital on any one of your dirty-cheap fishes. The black swans are happy to hide in these unknown and shock the market and blind optimists and pessimists. They are the fires. Anyone if dare to play them in bare would be burnt and be in the hell. This is the point you could not forget and should not be dared to forget.

    Don't argue how good they would be. Don't think anyone of your dirty-cheap fishes would make a killing for you. Don't deny your hope could be pointless. Don't buy if you could not hold until the light appears at the crashed tunnel. Don't buy if you don't have good enough cash reserve. Don't buy if the market sentiment is not in the lowest points for the time you want to hold.

    Do buy in worst time. Do buy at the lowest price after you have the confidence it is the lowest price. Do prepare you could lose all which you put into a dirty cheap fish. Do follow the historical probability distribution for their price change from the worst time to best time of the market sentiment. Do keep the cash reserve since the market sentiment could be worse or bad for longer than your expectation.

    We need collectively to be right to buy a group of dirty-cheap fishes. We need collectively to think them together for our own profit strategies. We need to know the value, the remaining value. We need the margin of safety. We need the senses of cheapness based on the discount to the remaining value. We need to know they are high risky and high reward animals in the market. If we could buy them collectively at worst time we could have chances to get some great reward.

    However we have to know we could not play them forever. Sooner or later we would have to play with the value, discount, growth, and future in much greater confidence. We have to grow up as Warren Buffett has shown that you could use Cigar Butt for your first bucket of gold but you have to be businesslike investors in the market if you are really ambitious.

    Why don't you play as a businesslike investor now? I need a updated mind and experience to know the market sentiment and die-hard sense about bargaining for discount. This sense could be got from dirty-cheap fishes, which should become a part of our intuition of our market playing!

    Do hope I could finish this transaction as early as I could. Before that I would train myself with the dirty cheap fishes.

    More mulling to update my mind in http://wdongli.wordpress.com