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Trading DMN: Too manty losers lost too much...

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 24th Jun, 2011.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    One post is very interesting to read from HC:

    "...there is nothing to ramp here, people have lost a lot of money and they dont need anyone else telling any more BS about this company !

    I hope somehow many can recover their money here by some miracle but be fair about what you say. I mean no offence to you but a line should be drawn.

    Poor, very poor. DMN is a very, very, very risky punt or should I say gamble."

    ***
    1. It seemed someone cheers to buy in for assumed discount after debacles.

    2. The cheerful tone upset some people who bought in at the price too high such as $0.05 relative to $0.001.

    3. Anyone who put $10,000 then, has only $200 in market price. So 98% gone.

    Yes it was absolutely right it would result in poor and very poor shareholders. DMN is a very, very, very risky punt in hindsight. But whose problem?

    The fact is whose mistake is not important but your money has been burnt with the shares you would like to buy then! Have you dreamed your $10,000 become $100,000 as me? If you did so, you should know you are trying to get something most of people just don't have the gut to think about. High risk and high reward are the feature of dirty-cheap fishes. If you could not sustain the pains to lose 100% of your capital in one dirty cheap fishes you should not play them.

    What if DMN hit a huge REE and your $10,000 become $500,000? DMN board would not change but the consequences to anyone would be different. Could you have complained DMN board cheat you to make too much money if so?

    Don't blame others for your greed and mistakes. Without matter you like or dislike, the DMN shareholders with the shares at $0.001 would have much more chances to be better off than you since you paid too much at $0.05.

    ***
    [​IMG]

    How about DMN board? They are opportunists since DMN started its list in ASX. It has made or destroyed a lot of dreams since IT booming even the losers number is much higher than the winners.

    You know that and unfortunately you are the losers since you put your money at wrong price. Whose fault? DMN board or you? It is obvious! Don't let others take the charges of your sins! It would not save your soul but if the environment makes you crazy again, you would lose your shirts again.

    Want to win in the market? Learn to be honest for your sins and mistakes! By the way you should not lose so much since the highest price before GFC was about $0.025 only.

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  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    DMN: Could we be the last to shoot at?

    DMN and a lot of dirty-cheap fishes have been shot down again by the bullets from the guns from their board rooms and turbulent wild markets since April 2011. They is going nowhere but back to the lowest points made in the March 2011. DMN is an example which was shot by all around it. So did ORO, its REE partnership with free riding.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    ***
    What are the typical behaviors of the market players who play with the dirty cheap fishes? What are the typical price responses of the dirty cheap fishes to the market turbulence? What are the probability distribution in price for dirty-cheap fishes collectively? What are the rules and principles which the dirty-cheap fish players have to follow?

    We could not change the past, the market conduct, and if you are in losses or worse in quite big losses, what should you do? To answer this basic question, you have to go through the questions listed in the paragraph above.

    ***
    I didn't touch DMN before and started to care about it due to ORO and REE. However so far since March 2011, I completely miscalculated the imminent risks of the selling seasons when I still could be happy to count on the big enough profit.

    I made a very wrong and illogical idea since August 2010, that was that I have locked very high profit this financial year, I should keep what I have got for the profit in next financial year. I started to change my rules, selling for enough based on two events: no explosive internal event and having explosive internal event.

    It is insane and is totally subjective without any concern of the market reality development. I knew the market would sell after it moved into May 2011 but I didn't lock the profit. You have to buy for discount since you need the margin of safety but you could not hold your position when the price has moved high enough over the assumed value or historical means. The price as anything would be back to mean sooner or later if no internal explosive events support. So what?

    1. Ady moved up to $0.09 and dropped back to $0.05

    2. Arx stayed at $0.035 around before April and dropped down to $0.025

    3 Cig moved up to $0.017 and dropped down to $0.01

    4. PGA moved up to $0.10 and dropped down to $0.034

    Seriously saying it has been a time all of dirty-cheap fishes down. In retrospective and hindsight, I hope I could find the reasons internally or externally. One pleasure thing makes me feel not too bad that is I start to be very serious about the cash reserve and actually I started to realize my mistakes just after I mulled about my reduced cash reserve, the blood to survive in the market, I realize I have to get into correction mode about my market playing. It is not too bad to be too late...

    ***

    I imposed my desires onto the market reality and then I started ignoring the market reality and then broke my rules to buy the dirty-cheap fishes when they touch the lowest price and the market is at the reasonable selling mood with extremely low probability to drop down further when the market as a whole to be different to the good or bad news!

    So I bought in based on my feeling but gave the procedures to screen the buying targets I have followed since 2004. I failed to buy any fishes which were priced at their lowest prices. I failed to follow one rule that is buy after DOW crashed or corrected based on a very simple fact that XAO would follow the DOW to crash or correct without matter what Australia economies perform, which has been confirmed again and again until now and it could not be changed in short term. No one could change it including Asia and China without matter they boom or bust.

    I have to be honest for my insanity; I have to be tough to our own desire and beliefs. I don't want to believe anything dying hardly if it just leads me into the valley of death in the market. I have to correct my mistakes passionately since it is my belief that market is fair, cruel, and really challenged. I want to let my life after 50 with the self-challenge. I have to be qualified to drive my vehicles without any desire to paint myself just with the gloss.

    I need to put the books aside and put the time to check what I did since March 2011. I could not let myself insane too long - hope I could get the magic to repeat the same things, which caused the failure in the market.

    ***
    So if I could not curse and blame others for my insanity, logically and rationally I should check out what wrong my mind was since last August.

    This post is just a start point. I would focus on what would be enough for the price up after the selling seasons to accept the consequences of my wrong ideas and miscalculation with the least damage to my portfolio. Hope I could fix the problem before middle of August.

    (I tried to learn not bet on if the dirty-cheap fishes have not internal causes to shoot up. Otherwise too much hope would hit us down into the ruins).

    I feel much better now after the shocking to realize the mismanagement of the cash reserve yesterday and know what I should do now before 15 August. Feel a little bit happier that now I could aware the insanity and irrationality about market, herd, others, and myself, and feel I don't need another four years to suck away the blood and cuts. The things still could be controlled even I could not forgive myself to hand in most of paper profit made since October 2010 back to Mr. Market.

    All in all, the awareness and the self starting for this awareness make me happy! We all know we need self-awareness and environment-awareness. It is extremely hard especially to a passionate market player! To be alerted if you have the dreams!

    I have to say honestly I made the mistakes but I did do the thing based on my rules about buying dirty-cheap fishes, to hold ORO since REE could be a company maker, it was assumed it had, and my buying price for ORO was $0.002/0.003 in 2009. I believe it is wrong to judge ourselves just based on the consequences. We could be hit by storm even we do all for what we should do!

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  3. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    知人者智,自知者明。勝人者有力,自勝者強。He who knows others is intelligent; he who understands himself is enlightened; he who is able to conquer others has force, but he who is able to control himself is mighty, is said in Chapter 33, Discriminating Between Attributes of Tao Te Ching.

    ***
    What most modern market players do:


    1. They have some special skills for a narrow field where they don't need to know others and themselves for winning or survival. They don't need to be so if they are happy to be so called specialist.

    They should be clever enough and have some high IQ for their specialized fields but if they don't like to manage a team, they don't need to be wise and enlightened about future; they do need to be enjoyed to cooperated with people to use their skills.

    2. So after these high-educated but narrowed minds get into the market, most of them failed to understand the cruelty of market. Some of them who have some residual of wisdom in their blood or brain cells, start to question their stupidity, irrationality, nature of the market and themselves.

    I started to question myself in 2001 after seeing the market crash so closely and painfully! However I completely lost my intuition and basic understanding of 知人者智,自知者明。勝人者有力,自勝者強。 after I put me in full into the team of the narrow minded Engineer for about 20 years.

    I put a lot of efforts to be intelligent and enlightened in the market but my personal characteristics and behavior have been formed unfortunately. So in the way to be intelligent, wise, and enlightened, I have run with confidence, crawled forward after stampeded times by times.

    ***
    Knowledge itself could not make you be wise and intelligent in the market

    I should be wiser this year but actually I didn't. The profits locked since 2004, slowly but definitely, blurred my eye in my soul to know myself and the environment. Since the shirt-losing in IT bust, I don't know a lot but I also don't dare to break down some bottom lines in the market. I knew I was not good enough. I acted in the market extremely prudent. This self-awareness enlightened me in my dark mind.

    However the profit even not good enough since 2004, especially the profit in and after GFC, let me lose the desire to be prudent since I did feel I have got a lot and had got some skills to surf the market for what I want, which was not in words but spread in my mind without my notice. I failed to be alerted by the cruel reality of the market as the war(as said it is war field without blood shedding). I failed to be alarmed I could not know the market good enough! I have to be in alarm since future is about uncertainties.

    So I lost the self- and environment-awareness and then I would never act intelligently and failed to enlighten myself when I am astray away from the prudence and the rule "no loss." So I also throw away the wisdom to lock the profit for enoughness.

    ***
    So a people with the words in mind without the light of self-awareness and environment-awareness would act as an idiot with the belief he acts intelligently and wisely but he could not do so!

    How could I turn the knowledge I have got into the wisdom? It is not about what we know but how should I behave to correct my mistakes I have made. It needs some reckoning with the clearly time schedule, and the understanding of the consequences of the reckoning. Generally saying I need to figure out when I should take the consequence so that it could have the similar impact and effect as I did to recognize my failure in IT bust!

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  4. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    A evolutional process for being alive in the market

    最人涅伏, 败果既落,新葩欲吐。吹呴呼吸,吐故纳新。鲁迅
    Being wisest saying: rotten fruits being away; then new buds spitting out; inhaling and exhaling the breath; expelling the old breath and taking in new - LuXun

    ***
    推陈出新,新陈代谢。
    Weeding through the old to bring forth the new; replacing old and dying being by new and vigorous being - A Chinese Idiom

    ***
    The past is not simply the past, but a prism through which the subject filters his own changing self-image.

    A system that had been ingrained for generations could not be easily undone by change from the top
    - Doris Kearns Goodwin​

    ***
    If we want to be in the market for long time happiness, we have to reckon and restructure ourselves to get rid of the rotten ideas for new and vigorous schemes and restructure the capital of our portfolio.

    It is not about the stop-losses but to reduce the load and move forward with bigger profit in next mind updating stage. We only could evolute to be whom we want. It is about consolidate ourselves before our next strategic movement in our market war!

    We should be organized, disciplined, self-reliant, and analytical so that the mind updating - taking the wisdom, intelligence, and knowledge, reckoning the past, consolidating for the future, is the logic and rational process we should follow!

    ***
    This process should be put into our market playing business by strategic ways!

    A man in the workshop or office to hit one hole for decades(it could a elegant and beautiful hole with great value but useless in the market) could not win in the market for too long if he is not extremely lucky since he could not be a good judge and decision maker in days with just good enough education to hit the hole!

    You could drive your car right but could you launch a rocket in the market. They ask different things. Do you have the things market want? Few and very few in the market players who jumped into market around 2000! I wan to be a market master but I have to know I could not be in 10 years or never.

    Be prudent and skeptical to any promising including what we did yesterday! Please remember, when you're desperate, that's when you get no choice; it is true always for anyone. So don't delay to reckon the debt, consolidate the position, and get the ideas how many scenarios would be, and to move forward with Plan B.

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  5. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Time to the office and workshop

    All sound cliches?

    It is my observation that anything in the market and life, if could not sustain the boredom and stale odor from the cliches, would collapse long before reviving.

    Are you clever enough to see it is true or false? Don't know? It is the time back to the workshop and office.

    ***
    This is not about my consolidation I planed to do, but my opinion about ORO and DMN.

    I don't hold DMN but I do hold ORO for years with the price at $0.002/0.003. It is my understanding that DMN and ORO seem have some strategic interests but ORO board seems more conservative than DMN.

    ORO hold the tenements. DMN wants to sit on the resource booming wagon. ORO gets the free ride since it has the early bird advantage.

    If we prudentially evaluate the risk and reward, DMN has higher risk with higher reward but no one really know what is under the ground. The worst case is all of ORO tenements have nothing which could be swapped for money. Actually it is the price Mr. Market gives to both of them.

    ***
    The key question is whether they would close the door. No one know and any assertion for their dying or reviving is bullshi*. However exploration for mining naturally is high risk and high reward business. Any one if put the consequence first, would mislead himself.

    The capital to them must be affordable to lose. ORO and DMN's price, if any of its tenements could hit something to prove its viability, would shot up.

    What will you do? Anything could be used as gambling dies. However it is wrong to think it is gambling to send a death squad into valley of death in the war for winning or breakthrough. Is it right for you to put your house on ORO or DMN? No! it is sheer gambling. We like the feeling in the war but we don't want to lose our shirt and family since we gamble.

    If we could get the above sorted out, it would be great someday later for you to play the swans and angels in the market. Too many market players play the value by paying overcharged premiums. How many players of the swans have got their financial independence? GFC washed all of them into the traps for years at least if not for their life even they called them as value passive or active investors!

    They don't know enough and prudence enough and then the swan are the dies for their gambling!

    ***
    You have to answer the questions "how much would you like to put in?" and "what time do you like to put your money in?" You have to question and answer the basics very rationally and intelligently. No useful and helpful to declare how great they would be and desperate crying could not change what you have lost.

    Of course, you could not turn your money as the traditional value investment capital. They are dirty-cheap fishes, different animals, which need the expertise most of traders don't have.

    Bottom line: If DMN and ORO hit a ton of 99% gold in tons, don't tell me the board are great in manage your money. Both you and them are envied lucky. If DMN and ORO drops into the heel with your money, don't cry to me I mislead you. It is their fate.

    Don't forget to ask if you lose all in DMN and ORO, would you be right up for a few nights outside your house desperately and lonely? No wives would enjoy to listen the failed story from the failed husband!

    So I just hold ORO if my profit could be achieved from other fishes but I would like to keep my right to sell it in a sunny day while the market is cheerful.

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    Last edited by a moderator: 26th Jun, 2011