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Trading Don't forget you are the player!

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 14th May, 2012.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    News said "While it runs for nine months ... Overnight Manchester City claimed its first league title in 44 years beating bitter cross town rivals Manchester United."

    The commentator commented cheerfully as his career requires. "...Absolutely incredible. There was a last ditch tackle, the ball came in, right on the very edge of the box, it broke to Aguero, Cousin really had a chance all afternoon, kept his cool, drove the ball in at the near post and that has sent Manchester City absolutely delirious."

    The fans were in euphoria caused by the surprised and long-waiting victory. "I gotta be honest with you, at 90 minutes I was in tears and thinking what are we gonna do from here and I can't believe it's happening and then all of a sudden just absolute euphoria."

    ***
    But what did the players do of both sides during the marches? As the commentator said they should try all to get the chances and protect their gate even the audiences were in euphoria and crying tearfully.

    The audiences had the right to cheer in euphoria since they paid for their ticket for what they want to see. The player have to work hard since they have been paid and it is their job.

    In the stock market few really know they are players or audiences. They play the balls in the stock market but they are euphoria as they are the observers. If you don't know your parts, what could you get in the stock market.

    ***
    In hindsight, most of traders tended to shoot the ball but have not the capability to shoot the goal of profits; they tend to leave their gates open for Mr. Market to shoot at without any effective protection.

    It is not about technologies and IQ but about the sense. Traders usually hate people drag them back to their gate for defense. They simply are gamblers and hope they could hit the goal and make the killing.

    Unfortunately Mr. Market would let these traders win some pennies but once their head become hot and act insanely enough, he just get the ball to get the scores again and again in quite destructive way and after one or a few of unaffordable losses, the traders are traded in.

    ***
    Most of traders are mad. Market is a wild field. After they are successful crashed down into the water. Any conscious and sane words could seal their death financially. They do not just lose the shirts but the guts too. They hate the words about the truth.

    Since 2004 I have realized the importance of the behavior and disposition but I just could not get enough mental power to do the right things, such as enough is enough. I don't want to see anyone dies since they read my words even their lack of disciplines make them losers. You thought my words kill you and then you should never read my posts.

    Charley Monger said don't go to the place where you would be killed. Logic is difficult to be understood let alone to follow. I could not find better way to update my mind and turn English as effective as my Mandarin. I don't want to harness my passion to write so you have to take care about yourselves.

    ***
    For your feeling and sentimental sake rather than your profit, please put me into your ignored list. I understand your feeling is very important to you.

    Someone would die in dancing to work but someone would die in vein for the mistrustful feeling. They are different animals in this wild field for different goals. They could stay together peacefully but they could not work together since they have different views about the market and different direct and indirect goals.

    If you believe you are right and hold the truth, don't try to enforce your truths on anyone else. Everyone in the stock market must be the leaders of his own money. The stampedes of human being is the most devastating savage.

    ***
    I do hope each of my posts here and there could add some bricks and mortar to my healthy mental framework on which my castle for future in the stock market could be built.

    I do hope if my words could upset you, you have your disciplines. Don't read them. Why do you read for your pains not wisdom? If you don't read my words and have better life, it is a matter we all need to celebrate.

    Life is about selection. I do respect anyone's selection. I don't need anyone's cheering and understanding if they don't want to get their profit and protect themselves in the stock market. I want the profit and you want your good feeling. We are different.

    ***
    10 years is a long time period for any life. I have wasted last decade in the stock market due to the the limitation of my mental framework. Could I waste the time in future. I hope I would not.

    55 is a age which could be expected to add another 30 or 40 based on the current life expectation. If anyone could use words to kill me it means I deserve to die in the stock market. I would not complain and curse him.

    It is very hard to update anyone's mental framework. It is the hardest matter to let anyone change little bit. I do want to change and actually I never stop to change. I will change based on the change of the stock market.

    ***
    Change is not to enforce our biases. Biases are from your blood and cells based on your experience in your life. Few could win out over the experiences, which put the strains of emotion into the brain, blood, and cells of your body.

    You like to copy and paste and you would not ponder usually. You like YouTube and you would not have the desire to write your own words out. You would lose your writing capability and waste your gift.

    I am continuing to promote my English Listening. It is the tool to get the building materials for my new mental framework. It is vital and critical task I have to get it done.

    ***
    I really know the difficulties to change any bit of our personalities. It needs the knowledge, the sensitivity to your biases, the persistence, the disciplines, the attacking from good or bad mates, and the asset such as excellent English.

    I just want to move bit by bit in my way! Go you own way and let others find the insanity or craziness. If anyone is right, take his words and digest them for your wisdom. If you are wise you will get the money while people die in your words.

    Life is like sailing that if you don't dive forward wisely it will go nowhere. It is very true for anyone whose age is over 50, whose experiences and life expectation could be the inertia to stop him for his legend.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 15th May, 2012
  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Don't forget you need coaches!

    If you are a player in the stock market, a wild field, do you know you have to govern over yourself?

    You are not a machine and your emotion has the way to affect your decision even you use the most advanced systems, aren't you?

    Is it right between you and your systems, advanced or inferior, there should be a bridge with good enough filters to facilitate your profit rather than your insanity?

    How could you stop your insanity and stop the advanced or inferior system launch yourself into the hell?

    ***
    Have you found the lines and patterns, which had lured you to buy, was broken when you still believed? Have you tried to analyzed how could you be sure your patterns and lines repeatable?

    Do you agree to most of traders or investors, we start in the stock market as a market orphans and we have to find the food for thought? Where do you target and whom would you follow? All in all to grow up, you need some one lead you for your growing up? Who are your coaches if you want to be a good player in the stock market?

    It is not easy for an market baby to choose the coaches for his successes in this wild field. All of us would follow some ideas from someones. Do you agree if you follow the wrong coaches you would nowhere to go?

    ***
    Some of losers like to say they are very experiences. However they just have no basic sense on the very basic vital matters. Are my words so powerful to kill you if you are immune from the infections?

    Poor and incapable people are few. No one is called to follow me since I have shown my incapability in the stock market. After IT bust and ruins I did realize I need some good coaches and later I did find some coaches just could not help me to make decision in the playing. You have to know life logic and common senses and then you follow the coaches you believe on them but they don't have any responsibilities for your playing.

    All of us like the short cuts and least effort way to our destination. Do you believe if you are no sense at all you would still be able to follow the right coaches without paying your tuition fees? Yeah, we need the coaches but who fit to our personalities? Do you need coaches to get your personalities right?
     
  3. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Renewed fears...

    Greece and EU causes traders nervous and skittish.

    1. Greece may well default
    2. New French president and anti-austerity sentiment seem deepen the worries where EC could go
    3. Aussie government stops the deficit policy support and bet on the resource sector can deliver enough cakes to all of Australians
    4. XAO sits over the fence even it doesn't retry to lead the world into the GFCII
    5. Where are the hopes? In the renewed fears, devalued Aussie dollar against US dollar could not define where China economies go.

    What if Greece exits out of EC? What if EU breaks into pieces? Would traders throw their lines and patterns on fire-sale price?

    How do you do in the renewed fears? If you have enough cash buffers or bond-type assets, all of these fears, nervousness, and skittishness will pass. But do you have enough cash to build your last defensive lines?

    ***
    There are two circles of influence and concern around everyone.

    EC, Greece, US, China, XAO, and crowd are all in the circle of concerns but you can not resort any influences on them. If your own position is not right since your wrong brain, you could not stop to concern how bad they could affect you in the tsunami times.

    Have known we have to play in the circle of influence, where we can guide the course and decide how we play and deliver the expected and calculated rewards. There are few trader really can apply their influences. Most of them just can make less losses or stop losses but they just could not influence how much they could lose in the tsunami.

    ***
    However once you unfortunately are in the tsunami, if you don't die, you would be hurt badly and quite possible very badly. The best way is you would not be there, which needs some simple but very hard to follow life logic.

    Greece could cause domino effects, which could hit EC onto its knees. For a long time I do know the worse could much worse before the worst becomes true. I have started to build my last defensive line since last July but it is the way for survival rather than preventing. It is a lesson that preventing is always better than putting yourself on the fire.

    No intention to find excuses for my mistakes, insanity, and greed which forced me to burn all of paper profit into the ashes. No mistakes no one can grow up but if you pay the cost but never put your efforts for lessons, you are a idiot.

    ***
    I was an idiot last year, wasn't I? All of us could not be idiot-free but if you do the idiotic things but refuse to admit your stupidity, you are real idiot.

    Are you an idiot too? Seriously saying I struggled to admit the fact I was very idiotic last year. Someone said a decade can make a trader become a money printer. It is a joke! How many traders here or there dare to say they could get calculated and trustful profit after a decade?

    After a decade if you still could not make calculated profit, you are ill, if you don't want accept you are an idiot. Something wrong. Do you have the gut to admit this fact.

    ***
    What should I do now? How could I protect myself under the worst case? How could I get the lessons without the damage of my guts? How could I get my last defensive line strong enough for the possible EC tsunami? How could I turn this tsunami into my opportunities?

    I still could not get a sure strategy lest alone tactics. It seems I have to prepare the worst and prepare to hit out for the sure gold ahead. It is the most challenge that I have not got my mental framework fully updated.

    After I locked some profit before I could smell the remote smoking from Greece and EC, I plan to spend at least three months in my English Listening and if I could lock more profit I want to extend the time to a year. But it seems I have to fine tune myself for the possible EC tsunami.

    ***
    Bad things tend to come in tandem, which is another lesson I have to remember. Don't put your toe into the place you could be killed. Seriously saying I still feel the current issues are the systematic one. I would warn me the possibility for me to lose the gut. It is another risk in the stock market.

    I bought 250,000 AKK at $0.023 today, which is a share on fire sale due to the market sentiment in my view. I checked all around it and would like to hold it until this tsunami passes by. By the way it had SPP at $0.029 after a serious positive outcomes from its US prospects.

    I did sell my AKK at the day of the SPP announcement. I really wanted to join the SPP but did feel the risk of EC and China to drive its price much lower in spike. Hope it could get more oil out of its US prospects.

    ***
    If taking days as the horizon of AKK, it seems no way the price would go up since there are just 22 buyers and hundreds of sellers.

    It seems all of Aussie traders become extremely clever. They know and predict the crash of EC even they don't want to lead the world into their imaged GFCII.

    In this world Australia is good but too small to lead anyone for any good or bad destination. It is a follower globally in the stock market, and then all of Aussie traders have to run slowly and wisely.

    Most of traders just could not run very slowly and unfortunately they are not in the high speed rollers-coasters, DOW!

    ***
    However it is still very fearful what if Greece is kicked off from EC? Greece now acts as something like old, rotten, distasteful, nearly broken, useless, and leaking sink. All worry not about it but...

    Do wonder how AKK's asset could throw out of the window in Europe even knowing the possibility of GREECE->EC->US->CHINA->AUSTRALIA-SKY->ALL SUM=0? I don't think I am insane now and hope if Greece will go, it should go before July 1 of 2012. Short pain is better long pain. If everyone struggle, it is not bad. Human has struggled for thousands of years.

    I wonder few could get good enough life if all of EC, US, CHINA, and SKY are in the hell. I feel everyone should be very equal in the hell even few could be burnt on less fire with the unknown reasons.

    What if the sky is there and EC is there even Greece is kicked off from EC to the hell it dug for itself?
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 16th May, 2012
  4. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Before I can deal with the qualities...

    In the stock market, as a businesslike trader or investor, you have to play the qualities and pay the price with margin of safety. However I do know I am not qualified to pick up the qualities.

    It is not a matter I don't know what is qualities but my mental framework doesn't support me to do the right things under all of conditions. Rightness means correct data sources, careful checked scenarios, tough self protection, and measures to pay least cost for best profit...

    Before I am confident about myself I have to think about how to make my defensive stronger and speed up the updating of my mental framework. I will continue my training in English Listening for at least 3 months and then I would evaluate all for my next focus.

    ***
    When I was at my 20s I realized that I have to control the controllables. Actually I did feel I could control quite a lot in the stock market until last year. However the unforgivable stupidity and insanity caused huge shocks to me when I could not find any excuses.

    Something we just simply can not control and once we touch on them we would be damaged terribly. After the efforts in my brain for a year, I realize that I still have the choice of where to invest and at what price to invest or trade.

    Big mistakes and the horrible consequences could result in traumas. These traumas could put anyone into depress and cause huge disorder in your brain and then you just lose the basic judgment capability.

    ***
    Yes, after recovering from the shock, I keep to ask myself a few basic questions:

    1. What asset classes should I have?
    2. What kind of shares should be within my equity portfolio?
    3. What is the time the price could provide the enough margin of safety?

    You could not be worrying free in the life and stock market. However you can choose what to worry about and what elements of macro and micro economies should be in your concern. You could zoom in or out for what you want to know so that you could make right judgment and right decision. Note: right decision is not loss-free but the profit probability must be big enough and never give you unaffordable losses.

    ***
    Am I a human? Do I have the gift or lucks always? What should I do in case if I am not unlucky? It is most important that I can control both my expectations and my decision-making.

    We could not be emotional free but we can get the peace of mind if we dare to find and admit our own mistakes and apologize for our mistakes. Few really have the guts to do so. Most of the traders tend to cover up their mistakes even the cuts are very painful.

    I have struggled to face myself for quite long time. It freed me from making excuses and covering up mistakes. We all need the accountability and accountability has consequences. It can reduce the amount of stress and let me find what I should do and happily do.

    Good English is a gift and I do feel I am breaking down the barriers, which stop the wisdom flow in my brain. Words are the reflection of your brain!
     
  5. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Tsunami days ahead?

    The whole world(stock markets) are preparing for the Greece Tsunami. DOW got another falling day and XAO is struggling and has lost another 2%.

    All of stock forums turned to be the place few have the desire and energy to talk about. It seems all of traders are shocked and the traumas have successfully destroyed their capability in writing, thinking, and even reading.

    The things has been developed so logical and obviously in stock market since last April. A tsunami could sweep out the stock market again.

    ***
    However too many still hope they could make losses, stop the losses, and make the profit in tsunami. They could not and human could not. If you are in the eye of the tsunami you would be destroyed.

    The looming of a new tsunami renews the painful memory. The traders is taking the flight to home at any cost they could pay even after the paying they would empty everything in their home.

    As what I said last year, I do want to do the business to service the hopeless warriors.

    ***
    It is great opportunities to learn and get the experiences to see the new tsunami coming in. Even in last decade we had IT bust, GFC, and the rushing to imaged GFCII, I never can see the tsunami so consciously.

    17 June is a possible reckoning day to EC and Greece with the wondering why a tiny Greece could have the power to make all of EC shivering. The Greece seems have to take another election. All worry if austerity is thrown away by Greet Greece People, the domino effects. Traders are anxious to wait the reckoning day!

    I have accumulated cash for about 2 years' expenses. I do hope the sky is there and believe it should be there. I would give my hand out if I feel safe enough to the depressed warriors.

    ***
    To learn how the warriors reacts in the way to their surrenders, it is good time to review the psychological cycles. Since last April, the crowd renewed their fear and desperation, which didn't just disperse any hopes but repeat the following stages in my view:

    Recovery stir the hopes but sooner it turned to be in the stages:

    1. desperation
    2. panic
    3. capitulation
    4. despondence
    5. depression

    ***
    Hopes could not seen and curse has disappeared among the traders and their love forums. The despondence in XAO seems become a common and popular mood. The looming tsunami in EC has depressed the toughest traders.

    I guess before 17 June any bad news could drag the last batch of warriors onto the slaughter table from the death valley. I wait for the collective slaughter in the stock market get into its end. If I believe I could identify this end, I will start to service the warriors who are still in the valley of death.

    God blesses the warriors and I want to give my hand but refuse to die with the warriors in the valley of death. It is the murder and collective murder. Do hope I can save some of them after the tsunami.

    ***
    AKK price dropped down as a stone. It stirs big fear and curse to its management team. In a few week, all of hopes for its US prospects just have gone. This drama makes big pains who bought it over $0.03 and put their support in SPP.

    [​IMG]

    I read a lot of announcements from AKK and feel its US prospects are still quite attractive at the price of $0.023. The dropping is not AKK board can stop. It is a panic selling in the looming of EC tsunami. No one can stop the damage from the tsunami and it is different from that the board speed up and derail its train.

    Now I am on the board. Without matter the consequences, I believe my buying is a right one. Who really know what happen tomorrow? The amount of money for the buying is affordable and if the tsunami just pass buy without EC crashing down, it would be a rewarded buying.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 16th May, 2012
  6. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Greece turns to be a patient of schizophrenia

    Greece itself spent too much and then put its economies at the brink with the environment allowed it to to so.

    Now it faces huge political and economic problems and the society has been shocked too much into trauma. Its society turns to be desperate, despondent, and depressed with the serious schizophrenia symptom.

    The election failed to vote for a legal government and no enough promising for a compromising government. Its hub fails to function and its crowd in unprecedented disorder.

    ***
    It is important to notice what will happen in Greece and its effects to EC not just because of the price crash of XAO but it is alive samples how the crowd, you, and me would react if we allow our head against the wall in the stock market.

    Some losses can be stopped happily. Some losses should never be allowed to happen. Once unaffordable losses turn to be true, you would be in disordered and get the traumas. It is not because you are inferior among the crowd but it will break down your brain under the unsustainable pressure!

    Stopping losses and mateship as flags among the traders are not new and will never could disappear. However they both work together with other simple assertions to get rid of the traders from the stock market generation after generation.

    ***
    It is my feeling that there is a very serious symptom of schizophrenia in Greece. Greece as a whole made the current crisis.

    They chose EC but now they felt they were manipulated by rich nations. They could not understand why the rich could be rich. They hope EC give them the prosperous but they fail to realize they have their own responsibilities. Who dare to say rich should not have their duties for the food of the poor? They are the enemy of the crowd once crowd become very poor.

    The rich just has some more money but not the god even they should have more responsibility for the society.

    ***
    The crowd once become poor, could complain first and then curse the money as though the money drops into the hands of the lucks or the men who could exploit the poor, so that revolution happens and sky falls down in worst case if the rich could not get the crowd rebalanced.

    The Greece is at a cross point. Some Pig Chiefs would use the crowd for their powers. Once a society and a trader crosses a line, no one could save it until it or him is destroyed first and then force it or him reborn. It happened in Russia, China, and a lot of poor countries before. Fortunately Greece is a tiny part of EC and hope EC could avoid domino effects and wisely doesn't allow it happen.

    The crow of Greece now wants to stay in Europe since they need the cakes. Who could be survival without the food? But the crowd of Greece could not have the cakes without pains. It needs the cakes from the creditor's nations of EC. If they want to eat the cake but don't want to do tough required tasks they should do, Greece has only one way to exit. Yes the creditors may be too tough, but once a nation could not find its way, it has no hope and will be worse than the depressed individuals.

    ***
    Greece has not too many choices. They have to be behaved and know they could not get free cake and try to get more room for its movement. I tended to believe Greece is a intelligent and wise nation based on the book I read 20 or 30 years ago about its lovely histories. Hope they choose the choice between bad and worse. They just could not get better results than bad one.

    The crowd in Greece may feel happy to see French President Francois Hollande campaigned on a pro-growth platform. But despite encouraging Greece has different challenges what France is facing. France has the room for growth. Greece has to be survival first with the help from others.

    Personally I do feel Greece should feels sorry to other EC nations morally. Why a tiny Greece could drag the EU in crisis, and the whole world in crisis? What gives Greece the right to do so. I hope EC should know it could not save Greece if EC could not keep to be their. It was important to be prepared for that possibility of exit and prepare to avoid the domino effect.

    ***
    I do believe patience is limited for anyone if they are in the crisis. I do feel the pains of EC policymakers who exasperated by what happened.

    It is a little bit joke but true that a country which accounts for barely 2 per cent of the euro zone's economy, is so powerful that it has dragged the bloc back into a deep crisis again and again and let the EC turns to be the engine of the biggest roller-coaster now.

    There isn't room or any willingness to move for the Greece now since its brain just stops work. Now the decisions are really in the hands of its crowd which would be shown in the coming reelection. If a man wants to walk into die no one can save him.

    ***
    I am happy I could write out my views about Greece based on what I learn about the crowd sentiment. If no updating of my mental framework it is impossible. If failure has any benefit, it forces me to know me, the crowd, and human nature.

    In the stock market if you fail you would never be so lucky as Greece and EC has to try to bail it out first since if Greece can cooperate it could get the best result from the bad scenarios of failures.

    Never and ever let your brain into traumas as individuals in the stock market. In the valley of death you have little chance to be survival!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 17th May, 2012
  7. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    There are mental barriers to prevent the unseen risks in future. We tend to enlarge the impact for what we believe since we need the motivation to act.

    Here there is a paradox: you need the belief to justify what you should do but if your belief is wrong it tends to hurt you terribly. The key to be safe for profit is we have to put what we really believe and what we really want to do in the reality and check the probabilities for what if we are right and what if we are wrong.

    Human's mood can change in second. Our mood can match with what will happen in future or mismatch with or totally wrong. It is meaningless to google to support what we believe only but find both supported or damaged data to our beliefs.

    ***
    The last goal for anyone in the stock market is to build enough asset base, which can give your some extra income or assets which will generate enough cash to support what you like to do.

    So actually it is not really important what you believe or are confident on what you want or what you believe but you have to make right decision to protect your assets, capital, and get the chances with great probability or get more asset by converting the profit into some sources for your cash income. So that you can see the cash and asset can be increased side by side or paralleled.

    The most dangerous sign is you feel too good and become arrogant with the belief you could ‘master’ the market. Once we get this psychological mood, the practice in the stock market would turn it into a confidence game: such as "Stopping losses is all about stock market."

    ***
    The reality is any assertions and beliefs could not cover all in the stock market. Could cover all about yourself? The price of any shares is the result of millions' transactions and economic variables. Our imaged world is quite different from the real world. If not, how could you still work in your workshop or get the losses and forced to stop the losses?

    Before I did my tax return of 2010/2011 I believe I have to pay some taxes, but the reality was I have got losses after the tax. The reason was simple:

    1. 50% of the profit from the share which we hold more than one year, is tax exempted.

    2. It can result in completely different consequences to calculated taxable income.

    Of course it was good surprise, which I would like to accept. However in reality, the stock market is a wild field, a lot of things are out of our control. We have to leave the room for our mistakes and false beliefs.

    ***
    The key for our future financial independence is to believe we are human and far away from perfect. Patterns in days or months could be random and they can repeat or don't even it can be used to ponder the trend into the future if we are right. Yes if we are right but what if we are wrong.

    For a quite long time I dedicated to know the patterns in days and read happily the prognostications of analysts who happily give year-end targets for share indices. The experience and life logic both tell me it is wrong. Future could not be seen exactly and any tiny miscalculation could be disastrous.

    Based on the patterns, lines, and words only are the source of future fire to burn your money. The right attitude is

    1. if everyone feels too good, you should enforce your doubt and find its facility
    2. if everyone feels too bad, you should enforce you to check how many are still adamant to stay in the ruins
    3. You should not think what if everything as your expectation, which is impossible.

    ***
    We naturally could not make quick and right judgment abstractly even someone could run extremely quick in the physical track.

    Long time ago, about 2007, I cried to learn how to get up early in the sunny day in the stock market. The moon can be buried in the cloud. The sun could trigger the tsunami, earth quack, and so on.

    Don't guess and don't trust yourself and your system too much. They could break down as any system under some conditions.

    ***
    Seriously saying no anyone would like to be trapped in the ruins but most of traders do be trapped there time by time. So it is easy to say to get enough room for chances but little room for losses.

    Before I bought AKK, I just asked:

    1. didn't it have the chance to get the profit?
    2. didn't it have much high probability to get the profit than any losses?
    3. could the losses in worst case is out of my affordability?
    4. what were the popular view of its economics?
    5. if Greece falls on its knees, could I lost more than 50% and what's probabilities?
    6. how much is the probability for Greece falls onto its knees?
    7. if Greece falls could we move into GFCII and XAO would drop down back 3800 or 3000?
    8. could XAO and the world stay in the hell for years if Greece and EC gone?

    ***
    Frankly saying I could not get all of answers for all of the questions above. That is why I need to update my mental framework. However I do feel I was much better to get a balance action around my portfolio since they just act as circuit breakers to let my insanity and stupidity run too quick to be controlled.

    We do need the circuit breaker in our mind for the insanity and do need to break down the barrier to let wisdom flow through everywhere in your brain! Of course it means if you want to put the efforts for them.

    Don't expect you would get a lot of mates and comrades to update the mental framework together but some would join in you even they seldom claim they are. Wisdom is few and simple which don't belong to most of traders and investors. And you have to avoid personal provoking to be their comrades for nothing in the stock market.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 17th May, 2012
  8. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Why traders are so unpopular now?

    It should be time you hold a lot of cash which was locked at the peak around V-Shape recovery which happened around Oct 2009 or at April 2011. It should be the time you start to use your cash to build your share position in two years ahead.

    In the next two years or longer you will see that GFC dust will be settled down, EC crisis will be settled down, and China will be settled down from its unbalance. Storm would pass by. I don't know how may traders believe that but I do.

    Fortunately and unfortunately I locked the profit around the peak of V-Shape recovery after GFC but I failed to lock the profit at the sunny peak around April 2011. Could I get rid of my insanity as that in the April 2011?

    ***
    Why are the traders so unpopular? They lost their shirts not once but two, three, or four times in the last decade. Well in some sense it's got me beat terribly.

    The losses of each individual are devastating; the collective stampedes are devastating. Do you see less and less of the traders have any desire to cry or curse? Do you see more personal provoking than the cheers for the killings? Is my words can kill the traders or they kill their own money but have not gut to face the reality?

    It seems sure if Greece falls down onto its knees, more traders would lose their shirts. Normally it said 85% of them are the losers. This time it seems the number would be more than 90% if not 100%.

    ***
    In the devastating, few of traders could figure out why they are devastated or traded in by Mr. Market. Do you agree that based on the maxim of stock market, it is all about the failure of cost reduction and fail to lock the profit or worse fail to stop the losses.

    You have to know without matter how you use your money, it is all about profit or losses to identify who are the winners or losers. It is all about the profit, profit, and profit in your bank account rather than the paper profit on the share certification.

    Do you know that? Yes I do but before the debacle last year, I didn't really know. Most of traders are very stubborn and short-sighted. They could not keep to lock the profit and they take more time to make the losses and stop the losses.

    ***
    What is my first and most important lesson in the stock market or life? Most of traders just don't have the sense to ask this question. Me? I didn't ask this question too but I will!

    I've got to be frank. It's too easy to blame the media, too easier to blame the playthings of Wall Street, too easier to call this or that as an idiot. Do you know you are the idiot if you dare to call anyone as an idiot? Do you agree that there's no purpose and no sense blaming the policy makers, the managers of the business, the EC and Greece?

    You have the responsibility to choose. You cannot blame anyone for your own fault and stupidity.

    ***
    In a sense I believe all make trading or investment just simply too hard. The truth will normally do its job. Have to say all of traders work quite hard. But the truth is also this - that the very best brains, the very best brains to manage their portfolio could stay in the stock market for years and decades even some idiots could be extremely lucky.

    A trader or investor needs to stand up for what he believe in and be prepared to fight for his own biases, stupidity, and insanity in his belief. What is most important for a trader or investor? you have to walk out with your bigger money snowballs from one after another tsunamis and crises with a sense of energy, commitment and belief that you will make personal legend for the 2020s at least. That is the test.

    Have you made your resolution to make a best brain in the coming years or decades?
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 17th May, 2012
  9. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
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    Perth
    We know after...

    Do you know you need to consider the worst case and try to build your defensive line for your safety in the worst case? I did know, do know, and will know it!

    Are you really know? If yes, when were you hurt terribly in IT bust, GFC, and the current EC disintegration drama? It seemed you didn't know. If you really knew why did you stay there and let the crisis crush you down? Simplicity is beauty and cruelty. You said you did know but you did against you knew. Why?

    In hindsight and based on your painful experiences in the past, if you could not admit your mistakes and try to find the causes, you are not just an idiot but hopeless. How many traders or investors here or there are hopeless?

    ***
    Traders as a whole tend to protect their own assertions and ideas. They could not figure out the difference between the self-estimate and arrogance. Do you know?

    A man is ignorant but appears as though he knows everything is arrogant more or less. Any arrogance can work in some extent if you have supreme power in offices and workshops but definitely not in the stock market. A lot of traders are humble in their offices and workshop. They really want to do something to beat others down(Mr Market) or at least they can act at their own will, which tend to lead them very arrogant.

    How could you let XAO boom or up for another 2-3 months just because you want to move the profit from this financial year to next one, as I did last year? For a long time I hate anyone told me I was insane, stupid, and idiotic but when I become conscious I could not deny the fact.

    ***
    We know too much and then we do thing as though we know nothing. Just got a call from one of my best friends. He complained EC and Greece and the bloody Labor without any self-awareness.

    Yes all are bloody bad in this world but how about yourself? Of course I could not tell him my real thought not because I want to tell the lie but if I told the truth our friendship would be at the end. Environment is what we could not really control. We need to control the controllable. As a trader or investor, what is your controllable matters?

    Few really know what he can control and most of people come to the offices and workshop since they have to. You choose as a trader which means you want to control your job and future and you really want the freedom. Money is lovely since it is the base to let your fly freely. No big enough money could be got without efforts. All we know that! Really?

    ***
    At moment do you know what you could control if Greece becomes default and has to exit from EC or worse EC is broken down into pieces?

    1. Now all are rushing into the safety heaven but are they really safe?
    2. I feel lucky to sell before May for the profit I was fearful to lose, not big but better than burning it into the ashes.
    3. I would buy some shares once I believe and try all to destroy my beliefs but I still believe.
    4. If 17 June is the day to reckon the Greece, EC, and the world to end an 35-years cycle, I would start to find a job for the worst and wait patiently for the most promising days ahead.

    Patience and preparation for the tsunami and chances are virtue. I am in my corner now and enthusiastically wait for the tsunami passes by! I am thinking what is the controllable things if the worst is there!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 18th May, 2012
  10. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
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    Perth
    What if your brain in trauma?

    If IT bust was not powerful enough, GFC did play its power to wipe out a generation of the traders in the light of IT and internet. If EC would be disintegrated, it would declare a end of days of this generation of traders.

    A lot of traders have too much pains then happiness in the stock market so far. I know my words are true but definitely would hurt the hearts in fragility. If you feel my words would kill you please don't touch them. Don't go the place you would be killed. Be happy!

    Tell you a good news from ABC: Scientists are developling a new technique which has allowed two people who are paralyzed from the neck down to control a robotic arm using their thoughts. I get a lot from this news.

    ***
    Are you injured in the stock market? Do you feel your brains in traumas? Don't worry there is an exciting glimpse into the future for people who have brain injuries and it may be just the beginning.

    However before you put your future into your belief to get some lessons from this news.

    1. It's a very exciting advance for human brains but mind control are still the task you have to do in the stock market. Be remember it is only thing you could get fully control for safety.

    2. Initially your brain should be trained to do the most safety things in the stock market.

    3. Once you can do the simple thing safely, you could move to do more difficult tasks with 100% caution.

    4. In a persistent efforts to make each task become simple, easy, and safe for your brain, you would evolute into future with the stock market.

    ***
    No IT bust, I would have lost my shirt in GFC rather than profit. No V-shape recovery I would have not laid the arrogance into my defeat in the April of 2011.

    No the defeating in the April of 2011, I would not be so motivated and desperately want to update my mental framework. The profit can pour too much hot water into our brain. The losses could cause the traumas and disorder. Both of them are disasters for your life and the practices in the stock market.

    I guess if no defeated in the April of 2011, I would be burnt into the pieces financially in this coming tsunami. Fortunately I have started the updating of my mental framework. I have started from very basic.

    Do wonder whether or not B. Graham could write the book "the intelligent investors" if no 1929 Great Depression. Do wonder what he would have done if Livermore didn't kill himself around 1929 Great Depression. The pains if huge, will kill you or let you reborn.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 18th May, 2012
  11. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
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    Posts:
    1,292
    Location:
    Perth
    Sunrise or Sunset?

    Just wonder it is the time of the sunrise or sunset. A maxim in the stock market is "buy while Wall Street is full of blood" Do wonder after XAO has shed its blood for more than a year, whether or not it is full of blood now.

    If it is the sunrise time but why XAO rushes into its hell bottom set by GFC so hard? Is it the pitch dark time before the light in the horizon or it is in the twilight of the sunset?

    News said "Greeks have been withdrawing Euros in alarming amounts - at least 700 million in the last 10 days as people fear an exit from the euro could create a banking collapse - a prospect beginning to filter down to the street."

    ***
    Would I withdraw my money from the banks if I were a Greek? I guess I would. It is the eye of tsunami even no one is sure this tsunami would falter the EC or global financial system.

    In the day XAO shed another 2%, more blood has been shed in XAO. Could it shed another 30 billions of dollars? Could it touches the lowest point, 3300 again? The clock is ticking forward. The closer it closes to 17 June, the more panic XAO would be. It tends to overeat without matter Aussie economies are good or bad. Do wonder why the market takes Australia as some sort of risk asset.

    Yep, all of us have right to wonder but you have to know where the line is to the hell. Feel not bad but alerted to see AKK at $0.02 around. In tsunami what is important to human? The running, the unstoppable running, the running as a cat without head is the only sign of the hopes.

    ***
    In GFC, the crash took about one month to finish. If Greece dares to take a exit from EC, all of the world would follow to take a exit from the stock market. Having seen the stampede when all rush into the exit after the euphoria became depression in IT bust and GFC. Do wonder how the crowd would react in the ruins of XAO after it led the world into GFCII.

    News quoted words from a Greek lady: "In a strange sort of distorted way I'm still persisting in keeping my money in a Greek bank because in a way it's a case of national pride for me, I mean it's the last of a stage of normality because if this goes I think that then everything else will come toppling down."

    Is it a strange sort of distorted way? Yep it is valuable for citizens to care about their national pride but could this pride save Greece and EC? Greece at least has 75% to take an exit out of EC. It even could unit together for a government in traumas. It is a time populists take the part. What if the rogue populists take the power, which is the stakes of democracy.

    ***
    Staying far from Greece and EC, feel funny to see XAO as a whole rushes into its imaged hell again but this time it has high probability to be right.

    Of course if I didn't sell before this new running, I could not have the mood to see it objectively. Hope I could wait for the tsunami just to pass by and all of gold are in the ruins at the unbelievable price. I tend to be optimistic and some time over-optimistic, which I have to remember. If I want to trigger the shoot, I have to let me get a pause first...

    Market is good and Australia is good since you don't need to run to the bank and you can wait for the chances if you are wise and patient enough. Just one thing frustrates me very much, XAO is very skittish and I have to get used to it.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 18th May, 2012