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Trading Ease, boys and girls!

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 5th Jul, 2012.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    There are uncertainties and the global needs the leadership.

    Unfortunately there are no immediate risks for the sky to burst into pieces so that the holiday of 4th July in US make the whole world wonder what would happen in US if EU could not do too much.

    The advice is take ease, boys and girls, since you have the gut to involve with the market now, you definitely are much less members of the crowd. The members of the crowd if not died already, should being struggled in the traps for years.

    ***
    Just think how bad we have had in the last 5 years. It is good if you can read or write for your future now. There is a great time ahead:

    1. you could exercise in the worst case for you survival scheme and find the holes which could throw you in the hell in the future.

    2. you could have more chances to run under the Sun even you have to pass some financial dead cats along the way.

    3. Worst seems have been there and the ripples are very destructive but if you bet the brightest spots with affordable capital, you could set the rock buffer for your future.

    ***
    Boys and girls take ease and cheer up for the fact you are still survival even millions of the traders or investors have died financially.

    If you are alive you have the hope, someone told me when I was a boy even then I didn't understand it very well.

    I am just thinking how I could put myself at the best position to run under the early Sun of the next market sunny days.
     
  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Could you see gems below the surface?

    All of things in the stock market are hide underneath somethings like clouds.

    Do you know that? If you know it you should not never be crazy to declare you would get profit from every your transaction and prepare for your failure due to your mistakes.

    What're below the surface of the dire numbers of share price and market indexes? Some dead cats? Sure it should be there but have you ever thought there are gems underneath there?

    It is always multiple facets in the stock market as the life. It is a great advantage if you know it. The more you know the better.

    ***
    There are businesses doing well thanks their self- and environment-awareness, strategies based on their awareness, and the guts to implement the strategies.

    We should know not all bleak out there despite the macro-economic backdrop. One does not have to look too hard to find companies reporting strong profit growth, beating market expectations or announcing positive business developments.

    The question is could you find this gems under the surface? GFC and EU crisis have destroyed the defense the traders and long-type investors could build up. Most of them would lose their guts forever.

    Do you still have your gut but don't know what should do now? Go to the basic and put protection at first but don't trade your guts in!

    When you have to sell your guts you would be extremely cheap not the stock market in future!

    ***
    I have to admit I don't know how to find gems under the surface or have not yet to know!

    However if intelligent speculation is the way to zoom out for seasons, sooner or later we have to zoom in for the micro-economies of the business and ourselves. You missed the way to zoom in you are doomed to be punished sooner rather than later.

    Wisdom requires the full views and details of the root causes of the successes and failures. Market doesn't tolerate any tiny mistakes and abuse of your capital.

    ***
    We need to learn about good or bad sides of business and economies.

    It is not easy but need a lot of exercises to know what can see, what cannot see, and what can be significant and what could be trivial many. It is the art and all are in process and run in some range under some conditions.

    You could be all are right but buy at wrong price which could kill you! Why do you stop losses? You are wrong! But are you sure what will be of the price after you sell.

    How could you be sure and more important if you are wrong you are still OK?

    ***
    What's the full picture?

    1. a decline in Australian executive's profit expectations,
    2. data showing the US is experiencing a slowdown in manufacturing,
    3. China's manufacturing industry also slowing and
    4. Europe continuing to muddle its way through its ongoing financial crisis.
    5. but one thing is sure no anyone wants the sky falls down
    6. so what is the launchers to hang the sky there?
    7. if the sky should be there these launchers have to fire to save it strong enough, which must be something for all to worry.
    8. do we worry enough and if EU crashes is it the time to worry the sky?
    9. it looks EU could drag the sky down or at least the policy makers think so.
    10. Game theory would not work when all would fight for survival.

    What're businesses doing?

    1. Some companies such as surfwear brand distributor and retailer Billabong, have fallen earnings expectations by more than a third. It is common in XAO out of the resources
    2. All of troubled companies have undergone a deeply discounted capital raising to shore itself up.

    *
    1. there are companies trimming fat, pursuing niche markets where they have a knowledge or skill advantage, or competing nimbly to grab market share.

    2. do you know construction and development group Lend Lease? It issued earnings guidance that was better than the market had priced in. But what are the driving forces behind?

    3. there are businesses that are doing well thanks to great strategies, great competitive positioning or just the fortune of being in the right place at the right time.

    *
    1. Lumbering multinational giants find it very difficult to outperform the macro-environment.

    2. it is generally smaller businesses that have opportunities to grow market share and consolidate their sectors that have the capacity to improve profits and returns to shareholders in adverse environments.

    3. Some are at the positive end of the profit expectation, someone said:

    3.1 childcare group G8 Education,
    3.2 agricultural investment vehicle PrimeAg Australia,
    3.3 health insurer NIB Holdings,
    3.4 petroleum refiner and marketer Caltex Australia, and
    3.5 niche industrial brands group Alesco Corporation.
    3.5 environmental consulting group Cardn
    3.6 there are 114 ASX listings that are expected to generate double-digit growth in earnings, excluding miners and oil and gas groups.

    Could we find it before the market know them? Quite hard but if we can it seems great to buy them at the reasonable price!

    ***
    I have put sometimes to know the qualities but I never tried to find them before the market knew them.

    Medias are tough to any business when it seems no one could survive. Please note:

    1. suburban Sydney engineering firm Saunders International, which designs and constructs liquid storage tanks and reservoirs, has flagged good profit expectation

    2. West Australian-focused property developer Finbar and telecommunications and utilities services provider Service Stream seem good.

    3. The problem is good doesn't mean good ratio of price/expected profit

    However I do hope I would be good about value and performance before next financial crash at least.

    ***
    Traders and investors tend to differentiate themselves based on using the value or trend for their action.

    I do wonder if value could help you trade wisely and profitably why don't use it.

    Anyway we still need to know the root cause why you fail to make profit from this share not another one.

    It is stupid to beat value since you are traders, isn't it? Stop stupid!

    ***
    By the way it is a market driven by mood since damages have been down if the sky is safe!

    Somethings are vital and somethings are trivial.

    Before you go to the value, don't forget the mood, yours and crowd's! The mood give you the chances for discount.

    Don't say I keep secret in my hand. I have told you, stupid, wdongli!

    ***
    I am happy I could go so far about the stock market.

    I didn't pay the fees without trying my best to get the lessons.

    If your brain is right, no money you could make it;

    if you have not the brain, even have billions of dollars, you would be the dead cats in the stock market.

    By the way I shift my focus in English listening from ABC news to movies and TV series.

    I do expect one more luck, that is my betting this time is right and then I could finish my course to get my English Listening as my mother language.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 6th Jul, 2012
  3. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    It is fearful but...

    It is good or bad news that the feeling of the professional crowd are sinking?

    Usually or normally the stock market would turn more bullish after each rate cut. However the negative mood was so bad that the latest monetary easing in Britain and China just let the crowd feel worse.

    Shares fell, key European bond yields rose and the euro plunged, mainly in response to the European Central Bank's moves globally and in Australia it was mainly to China's movement.

    The creation of a zero per cent deposit rate

    1. It was said Europe is ground zero for the crisis, and
    2. it is now moving into uncharted territory.

    Encourage to take more risks and start lending

    1. The deposit rate cut is an attempt by ECB to encourage the banks in Europe to take a bit more risk, and start lending.

    1. €1 trillion of three-year money priced at benchmark rate into European banks, but the money has so far not transmitted strongly into bank lending.
    2. European banks had about €800 billion ($965 billion) parked with the central bank, earning an interest rate of 0.25 per cent a year.

    GDP Shrank

    1. GDP in Euro area shrank by 0.1 per cent in first quarter of this year.
    2. fixed capital investment across the economy fell by 2.2 per cent
    3. government consumption has fallen for six consecutive quarters
    4. private consumption has fallen by 0.7 per cent
    5. unemployment is at a record high of 11.1 per cent
    6. retail sales have been declining since the beginning of last year
    7. consumer confidence has fallen by 15.9 per cent
    8. Manufacturing order books have declined by 9 per cent

    No more about maximizing the capital return

    1. European banks are not just loathe to lend to the relatively few businesses and households who are looking for money,
    2. but are uncertain whether the loans they already made are good.
    3. they care less about maximizing capital returns and more about capital preservation
    4. so that ECB is a obvious even compelling bolt-hole.

    Save? You get nothing!

    With the deposit rate now at zero, the banks will earn absolutely nothing on their deposits, and their inflation adjusted return will be about minus 2 per cent.

    Could this enough pain to persuade banks to put their money elsewhere, and put at least some of that €800 billion pile back to work in the economy? It is all to drive the economies back into growth!

    Capital flow very slow in EU

    1. the €1 trillion ECB funding injection was never going to flow rapidly out through the banks into the economy
    2. credit flows were not uniform across Europe: lending is growing slowly in the north and weakest in the south, where the sovereign debt crisis has hit hardest.
    3. several months had elapsed since the €1 trillion program had concluded, and credit growth was still weak.

    Why not lend?


    1. Risk aversion(market or economy crowd mood)
    2. lack of capital(owners' asset have been destroyed or trapped)
    3. lack of funding(monetary volume from the central banks)

    EU have removed only the third, not the other two. These three have formed a intertwined toxic loop in macro scale.

    Negative rate?

    1. was even a zero per cent deposit rate enough to persuade the banks to redeploy their money elsewhere?
    2. if it isn't, will the ECB risk moving to a negative rate?
    3. Denmark's central bank moved its own deposit rate to minus 0.2 per cent.

    So could you refuse the profit from others' money but don't need to pay the cost? Let them make money to get the economies back to the tracks and tax them later. It sounds EU is at a cross point!

    ***
    Don't read for self-service. I check what happen in EU to fine tune what I should do in the stock market, no more no less, for chances at calculated cost intelligently.

    If you read for sure, you would be disappointed not by me but the stock market. You would be traded in! Big picture of the world is a matter for guideline or vision or identify the possible spots for your profit. However before you can get the profit you still need to get into the spot for its special case.

    If you could not know the special cases of what you would buy you are a speculator even with a perfect full picture and intelligent. Wisdom needs both of full picture and details.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 8th Jul, 2012
  4. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Cto: $0.08?

    The crowd mood is not good today but CTO goes up to $0.075.

    Some bargain hunters close their positions but more bargain hunters who believe its bottom and its remaining value of $0.08 at least. This remaining value has been confirmed by the placement of $0.08 for $10million.

    At my buying price of $0.053, the buffer, $0.022 seems big enough for the downward risk.

    ***
    Aussie traders and investors have shifted their focus from EU to China and US.

    EU has taken less time to make its mind as Soros said, three months. China seems in trouble but definitely will not tip off. US is in correction mode but DOW approaches to the level not less than the peak of V-shape.

    Aussie never and ever make their minds just based on domestic economies but very carefully fine tune their step based on the global environment.

    XAO actually follows China's stock market. If China's risks could be understood, XAO should move up.

    ***
    Both of euphoria and depression would overwhelm the fundamental basis. It is time not about fundamental but the mood of the market.

    It is tricky time when all are easy to lose their mind. To keep my gut I am focusing to watch the "Stargate, Atlantis" for my English listening. It is keeping to tell me it is not easy to update the mind.

    Sometimes I doubt myself the usefulness to get my English better. However if I don't do it now I would never have chances to do it; if I could not turn the English as my mother language, I would not get the mental strength to update my mind to face the challenge in stock market;

    ***
    I never regret any options I have chosen. My kid asks me to slow down or get a job in the field I get used to be. I am grateful the care but I have to choose the option I could.

    I do need to be wise and intelligent and do my job in the stock market. What if I fail in my chosen option? I should accept the consequences, good or bad.

    2012/2013 are critical to the global economies for the passed cycle and coming cycle and then it would be critical to my practice in the stock market.

    ***
    I have to think when they would be enough for what I bought since the May 2012.

    How about what I have done before 2011? They are the past and the past is past! I do need the lessons and only the lessons. Yes, no one can predict the future but future is formed by the characters.

    Do hope I could get the characteristics for the need of my future!

    ***
    I do like the wisdom, intelligence, heroism, and randoms and certainties of the histories shown in Stargate Atlantis.

    XAO joined the global club to sell today even it refused to lead the way for GFCII.

    US and China are the sources of the worries! How about North Kore? We just could worry what we could image.

    What is it we could not image? Black swans! I would not play for sure absolutely but roughly!

    ***
    Uncertainties and lower price of stock market globally would pressure the policy makers work hard and hard to turn the course.

    It is not just bad for the price down! You like or dislike the policies and efforts in ruins from the policy makers are critical. They are leaders and hope they don't follow the crowd!

    In this time there are too much data around, the crowd needs the leaders for their fate. The best ones of crowd could cry or cheer up tearfully but still are the followers.

    I am the leader of myself in the stock market with the desire to work with other GREAT leaders for my own profit only at the very beginning.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 9th Jul, 2012
  5. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Forces to drive the economies and market

    Two lessons

    1. the economy moves in cycles of boom and bust.
    2. although most of the changes going on in the economy at any moment are ''cyclical'' (temporary), there may also be changes driven by ''structural'' (longer-lasting) forces.

    Why did housing prices rise so dramatically between 2000-2007? Why did resource price increased between 2005-2007?

    1. it was because there were a decade-long frenzy of competing with each other to move to better homes if you remember the dire price of houses in 1990s.

    2. resources prices had dropped down as though high tech would have driven the resources out of our life.

    Asset is priced in cycles with the cyclical and structural reasons, which is obvious. Traders and investors tend to be driven by the cyclical elements even after the structure shifting happens.

    ***
    It seems much of the ''unrelentingly gloomy'' public discussion about the economy may be caused by people mistaking structural problems for cyclical ones.

    1. the official statistics is saying the economy is quite healthy
    2. people think it is weak and want the economy's managers to get it moving by such standard remedies as a tax cut or a cut in interest rates.

    Traders have lost too much and the cyclical elements are so powerful that XAO just performs as though no resource booming has been proceeded.

    ***
    The issues are:

    1. if the problem is structural and it arises from deep-seated changes in the economic environment, the cyclical elements would fade out sooner or later.

    2. structural change is rarely painless, it often involves people losing their jobs, businesses failing, and stock price crashes.

    3. traders and investors would be always better off to adapt to the way the world now works than try to resist it.

    That is how we could identify these cyclical and structural changes and put ourselves at the position to use the changes as chances rather than the traps for our capital.

    ***
    The crash or correction of the stock market have the cyclical and structural reasons. Usually they start from the structural issues, get into the self-fulfilled loop, end when the opposite structural issues or chances become strong enough.

    The boom in export prices and the construction of new mines arises from the historic re-emergence of the Chinese and Indian economies and is a classic example of structural change. The accompanying high dollar is helping to bring about a long-term shift of workers and capital into mining and away from manufacturing, tourism and overseas education.

    1. Market tends to blame the resources boom for the problems of industries
    2. The truth is the tough times are the results of the structural adjustment: the markedly changed behavior of Australian households.

    It seems no direct help for the profit in days but would give us the chances for vision if we could understand the structural changes.

    ***
    Spending behavior changes

    1. In the mid-1970s, households began reducing the amount they saved, meaning their spending was able to grow faster than their income.
    2. Spending went into overdrive between 1995 and 2005.
    3. Over 1995-2005, households cut their rate of saving by a cumulative 5 percentage points.

    It is said the consumer spending grew at an average annual rate of 2.8 per cent per person after inflation, even though disposable incomes grew at a real annual rate of just 2.3 per cent.

    ***
    We did feel richer!

    Why did we felt we no longer needed to save or spend less than means?

    1. it seems because we saw ourselves getting wealthier as each year passed.
    2. The gross value of assets held by households - mainly the value of our homes - more than doubled between 1995 and 2007.
    3. That involved a real annual increase of more than 6 per cent per person.

    Only a small part of this increase came from the building of additional homes. Most of it was just the rise in the prices of existing homes.

    Actually I felt red hot mainly because my properties have appreciated more than what I expected and I was not hurt but got some good enough profit in GFC and its V-shape recovery.

    ***
    Why did housing prices rise so dramatically between 2000-2007?
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 10th Jul, 2012
  6. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Why price rised so much?

    Price of houses rises do dramatically between 2000-2007 and resource price was more than double between 2003 - 2007.

    Why? it mainly was because we went through the dire time period for them which drastically destroyed the supply and once demand passed a point all of us competed with each other for better houses and wanted to hold the resources, which bid up prices.

    The equation of demand and supply is not always balanced and human could not be rational without impact of their own perception and feeling. We tend to act only when a unbalance turns into crisis or over-optimism.

    That is we have to stay with the bust and boom otherwise we would not be human collectively!

    ***
    Boom will definitely tilt the equation to the end of euphoria without drastic events bursting out while bust to the end of depression without cheerful event bursting out.

    Boom or bust are processes not events. In the boom process,

    1. households took on a lot more debt, including for investment properties and stock market.
    2. Total household debt rose from 70 per cent of total annual household income in 1995 to about 150 per cent in 2007.
    3. The deregulation of the banks and low inflation made this unprecedented ''gearing up'' by households possible.
    4. We had low mortgage interest rates or margin loans, which made service fee affordable in the boom processes

    Exuberance of euphoria and depression have to find the way to leak. Exuberance of euphoria tend to cause the crashes. The fears of the crashes make the crash happen much quicker than euphoria since we tend to slow down when we feel good.

    So we have the slogan "stop losses" even we tend to stop the profit too early and stop the losses too late!

    ***
    Few retail traders or investors have the mental structure to understand the boom and bust good enough.

    We are told 80% of traders or investors lose the money. Actually nearly all of retail traders or investors lose the the money. They don't understand the speculation and investment both!

    Retail traders or investors tend to be self-support for their feeling rather than self-reliance in the stock market.

    ***
    Making money is not easy which needs the wisdom, intelligence, and operational structure to let the wisdom and intelligence flow through but few of retail traders or investors have the mental frame for it.

    We tend to be ignorant and arrogant before we lose too much. We tend to be gut-less and self-feeling-support after we lose the shirts. How many posters in the trading forum really understand the words they post out?

    After gut are lost all of the trading forums become ghost towns. Crashes are fire to burn the weeds out. Weak minds just talk for talking. We need to stop it, stupids!

    ***
    You cannot borrow more than what you can service for too long but the crowd perception and mood would only have a pauses after fundamental have changed enough and be reversed by some shocks.

    A call for a halt happened a year or two before the global financial crisis reached its peak in late 2008. After the halt people began saving a lot more and trying to get on top of their debts.

    Once the crowd has been shocked its focus would shift from one extreme to another. It tends to extend the pause and if more shock happen it would crash and crash very quickly.

    ***
    The crowd is not always stupid and abuse the leverage. The shocks make it prudent, which is not because it becomes wise but it gets the pains which instinctively forces it thinking second.

    As part of the return to prudence,

    1. the rate at which homes change hands has fallen from its average over the previous decade.
    2. the demand for housing has slackened, house prices have fallen back.
    3. however they won't keep falling forever, but nor they are ever likely to shoot up the way they used to.

    ***
    Prudence is causing adjustment pains for various industries: the banks aren't doing as much business, nor real estate agents and stock brokers.

    1. The days of rapid growth in consumer spending are gone
    2. All have to get used to it
    3. Retailers for new homes have tougher life.
    4. more of the consumer dollar goes on services and less on goods.
    5. digital revolution forces all to change and new competition while monopoly is only a way for higher return than average.

    ***
    Traders and investors tend to blame governments, businesses, and other nations for their failure. However if a change is structural one, no one can be blamed.

    There is little the managers of the economy and business can or should do to halt or even alleviate pains in the structural changes for common goods.

    Traders and investors have little sensible choice but to adjust. In any case, most are for the better even it is sure thing most of retail traders would be the consumed warriors for common goods.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 10th Jul, 2012
  7. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    CTO: sold at $0.075

    There are a lot of bargains over there. CTO seems very promising but I have to be sure to lock the profit if it is big enough.

    I do feel it has shot up too quick and a barrier has been set up around $0.077. I have bought ARU, AKK, MOL, CKK, and CTO to get positions for the possible recovery.

    However I just could not forget what Soros said. He expected 3 months time for EU to stabilized. So that XAO could struggle until October. Bargain hunters are very cautious now and they tend to sell very quick and I have to hold some cash for the worse become worsen.

    ***
    It is not based on the strategical view but tactics to deal with the crowd mood for better buffers of my portfolio. My direct goal is to keep even of my cash flow in and out. I could not allow my position changed from profit to losses.

    Could it go up to $0.08? It could and should be quite probable. The problem to me is in a few week it has moved up more than 40% and I would feel painful if I would lose it.

    I want to hold but I don't have the necessary buffer to protect me. I have to learn the compromising between the long-term and short-term goals. It seems before it becomes very good it should be worse first.

    ***
    So sold and feel a little bit relaxed.

    By the way US and China economies are in downward mood. It should not affect the Aussie mood too much but if DOW continues its down for another one or two weeks, bargain hunters would sell.

    I must be tougher than all of the bargain hunters. Anyway the selling would add the buffers for what I have bought since the May 2012.

    A balanced bet! Profit comes from tougher buying and selling for enoughness! I would work on to see what and when I should buy one or two more of shares for the discount and margin of safety!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 10th Jul, 2012
  8. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Gda: $0.001

    It is a burner for bargain hunters' money.

    You believed $0.01 would have been cheap, but it dropped down to $0.001. Could it be much cheaper? Possible but unlikely before it takes another consolidation. When does it need to consolidate the bargain hunters' money again? A few months if China tips off or US gets another recession.

    Most of damages have been done after GFC, actually after the V-shape recovery, 2011/2012. It lost nearly another 90% since XAO led the world into its imaged GFCII in the May 2011.

    ***
    It is terrible to see bargain hunters losing the shirts but it also tell a truth weak hands have been thrown away from the market collectively.

    So I bought it in at $0.001. I feel but not sure the market value it between $0.001 and $0.002. So if it could be consolidated, 30% profit should be sure and if China is confirmed in soft landing, it could give me 100% if no 1000%.

    Patience is virtue. I hope I could get another $4000 more of GDA at $0.001. Risk? Quite high if EU crashes down to ground and China tips off. I bet it would not happen.

    ***
    The more important matter here is the cost has been paid by the losing bargain hunters.

    By the way it is important too to know it is a speculation not investment game. The certainty around it is there are a lot of black swans and its management team seems not know how to call the good ones in.

    So don't shoot me if you are a so-called investor. I am play the relative price around its remaining value, the shell value. I am servicing the shirt losing bargain hunters. I could lose all in GDA!

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 11th Jul, 2012
  9. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    The main problem now is...

    Nothing is perfect and economy could be weak and stock price drops down. However after XAO in its correction road since the beginning of 2011, its main problems are political and psychological.

    Fundamental defines the means of everything but crowd mood define the price now around the means.

    We have better conditions globally now than that of GFC. We have better economy performances than any advanced economies. The underlying trends in the economy are positive but XAO just follow the worst performers around the world.

    I tend to be optimism but now I know I have to notice the extremes of the crowd mood. These extremes can kill any one who is ignorant or arrogant.

    ***
    The potential for growth is there. The question is, when are “the animal spirits” going to become positive?

    The psychology isn’t favorable now. There’s a “herd mentality” among businesses, traders, and investors, who are already worried about what demand or price will be like at the end of the year.

    1. They worry over Europe, US, and China whether the crisis there will morph into the kind of disaster that befell the global economy in 2008.
    2. However I doesn’t think it’ll get to that point, at least not in its impact on the Aussie economy.
    3. And actually all of Aussie traders and investors have prepared too much for their imaged GFCII.

    ***
    In my view Aussies in the stock market have the problems mentally caused by the downward economies globally.

    The mental ill causes the troubles in economies. They react each other to beat the stock market down and down until some shocks to stop the self-destruction.

    They need some shocks positively or negatively to force them see how economies could be bad in worst case.

    ***
    In this self-destruction cycle, it is important to protect your capital while you try to make your profit. I will try all to protect my capital and try chances with the affordable risks. I don't want to make a killing this year but get some profit to keep my current position.

    In worst case if we can manage our own life, we would get more in sunny days. So far this year not too bad I still could lock some profit as part of my expenses as a full time market student.

    I will be very tough to buy and sell to lock the profit when it becomes reasonable big. Good black swans need patience and no losses!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 12th Jul, 2012
  10. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
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    Gda: $0.001

    In the shadow of China troubles and US recession in mind, few wants to buy but sell.

    The problems is that no one really could fathom how deep of the water in these two countries. You sell and then all sell to stop the losses.

    Anyway, I believe you have to take the chances with the calculated risks.

    ***
    The money from bargain hunters have been burnt into the ashes even after its consolidation after GFC. I really like to buy from the toughest bargain hunters.

    Anyway, I bought GDA shares for another $4,700 at $0.001 today as the reasons I listed before. Its placement would let it alive for months if not years.

    Aussies are burning the resources into the ashes rather than worry about the huge holes anymore. That is bad and do hope it is bad enough!

    ***
    All of us would make some mistakes. I rather make mistakes when all want to sell but I buy than all want to buy and I buy.

    I would sell and buy to rebalance my portfolio and be sure no cash crises for two years.

    Could Aussies have some sunny days after two years? Don't know but it should be quite likely.

    ***
    In the stock market I just get a lesson that is it’s best not to take the pills anyone is trying to give you.

    I’d asked all of my friends who have been traders for years: what are they fearful at moment to see what they prefer to be: the bulls or the bears. All of them are bears. It generally works as a great contrarian indicator when it’s this far skewed to one side or far from the means.

    When the bulls are scared, it’s time to buy. When the bears are scared, it’s time to sell. And you have to put your budget at first, which defines your affordability.

    ***
    We’ll see if this time turns out to be an exception. All now feel China, US, and EU would go down into the sinks together. Possible but the price of shares have been set to appreciate this possibilities already in my view.

    Even though the toughest bargain hunters have been locked as shirt-loser, the markets can and do change over time and it’s possible that at some point the efficacy of this fear fails.

    Anyway high speed trading, government bailouts and endless financial crises are the kinds of things that change near-term market dynamics. Life would be going on, good or bad.

    ***
    How many times have you heard the old saying about buying when others are fearful? How many times have you bought when all were euphoric?

    You have to know the above saying is about vision not tactics. You have to worry about your cash flow. You have to be sure no damage is big enough without matter the risks are in long term or short term.

    We should not a perma-bull. But we do need to remain bullish for life and market and find ways to play safely and profitably when all seem live in fear.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 13th Jul, 2012