'Expert' forcasts worth crap!

Discussion in 'Share Investing Strategies, Theories & Education' started by crc_error, 11th Sep, 2008.

Join Australia's most dynamic and respected property investment community
  1. crc_error

    crc_error The Rule of 72

    Joined:
    1st Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    1,267
    Location:
    Melbourne, VIC
    I was reading this article which is a few months old..

    The trinity of top investments | NEWS.com.au

    and I noted these predictions:

    Westpac economist Huw McKay predicted the Aussie to end the year at US99c, Mr Dutton forecast 95c and Mr Savanth said CommSec believed it would be worth about 92c.

    Two months later we are down to 79c and still falling..

    I wonder why anyone would pay these so called experts for their forecasts when you could get a 5 year old kid to take a guess, and be just as accurate!
     
    crc_error, 11th Sep, 2008
    #1
  2. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

    Joined:
    3rd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    12,414
    Location:
    Sydney
    It's only September - a lot can happen between now and the end of the year.

    That being said, I'd not bet on the AUD recovering to parity in that time, but there are some interesting forces at play in the currency markets right now. The AUD has been falling far faster than it ever has before.
     
    Simon Hampel, 11th Sep, 2008
    #2
  3. Mark Laszczuk

    Mark Laszczuk Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    602
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Speculation is a complete waste of time. Why do people listen to fortune tellers in expensive designer suits?

    Mark
     
    Mark Laszczuk, 11th Sep, 2008
    #3
  4. BillV

    BillV Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,555
    Location:
    Sydney
    CRC

    Based on the information they had at the time their prediction was justified.

    When commodity prices change direction and start to fall the fundamantals change and therefore the prediction will no longer be accurate.

    Where do we go from here?
    Who knows?

    If the official interest rate come down, the AUD will head south as well.
    The RBA for the first time has a very difficult job to do.
    I think they should try to remove some of the pressure in the credit markets and try to force the banks to lower interest rates by themselves.

    IMO the official rate will stay at around 6.5-7% for a long while...

    Cheers
     
    BillV, 11th Sep, 2008
    #4
  5. pendo

    pendo New Member

    Joined:
    1st Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    1
    Location:
    Sydney
    Talking of forecasting

    I have been attempting to learn about shares etc for the last year.
    I have been subscribing to a few sites published by Taipan publishing. Its an arm of Agora. Mostly international stuff, with a few interesting Aussie ones thrown in, now and then.

    I have been tracking some of their recommended stocks, and Breakaway Investor, and have had some really impressive current performers in their portfolio. Particularly the AG Stock recommendations.:)

    Here is the link

    Taipan Publishing Group - BreakAway Investor

    Anyone on here a subscriber, or been down this path?

    Cheers
    pendo
     
    pendo, 12th Sep, 2008
    #5
  6. crc_error

    crc_error The Rule of 72

    Joined:
    1st Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    1,267
    Location:
    Melbourne, VIC
    it seems like their examples they used in their food shortage report all ran up to july or so, and then tanked! prehaps someone was causing a price bubble?
     
    crc_error, 12th Sep, 2008
    #6
  7. BillV

    BillV Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,555
    Location:
    Sydney
    I think China was stockpiling food and petrol
     
    BillV, 12th Sep, 2008
    #7