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Trading Fathom fears and euphoria?

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 24th May, 2012.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    We tend to trust our eyes and feeling even abstraction makes the chances for human being to leap forward in last two hundreds of years with great experiments, such as world wars, financial crises, and insanity and craziness individually and collectively.

    What is ahead? Different people use different tools to fathom not just the consequences but fears and euphoria. Since GFC, it seems fear is in its dominant even some would be cheerful out since they feel better. Most of people feel not comfortable. Economical reality and crowd sentiment have formed this or that self-fulfilled loop and worse that no one could see when the loop could be broken out.

    Should we fathom the fears and euphoria? All of us know the shorters use their gauge to sell the market down and some of these shorters can make profit.

    ***
    Don't just say we are investors and we have long-term views. In the slope of GFC crash, no investors were winners too. How many value investors were so native and saw their funds lost more than half in months. Why are people so fearful?

    In the pains some so called value investors put their heads into the sand. Did they really act as value investors? Warren Buffett is a snowball roller and use the logic onto the earth not in the air. I just simply could not understand why we need to raise issue such as BHP vs RIO from any logic in the current market environment.

    1. if China stops growth both of BHP and RIO would be in trouble since they buried too much in the ground with Iron ore.

    2. Crash due to crowd sentiment would not just choose BHP and leave RIO alone or vice versa.

    Who can really be sure BHP would lose less or RIO would win out more in days? If we can do we would not see so many shirt-losing traders or investors.

    ***
    I just could not agree that any people say we can fathom the fear and euphoria exactly. Yesterday afternoon I just could not focus on to listen ABC news. I could not give any reasons.

    However I also could not agree the words such as it is impossible to get roughly right about the lowest or highest points. Some time we do but we just no gut to act some time we cannot but we do take the risk and trapped there. Fathoming is a type of data collection, which is necessary to get intelligent judgment after carefully collecting a lot of other data through other facilities.

    Don't know if tropo remember the words he post: you must be disciplined, analytical, and self-reliant, but I do try all to know it onto the earth. If you think these words right how could you be so?
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 24th May, 2012
  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Why can bears kill most of traders and investors?

    All know all great bear markets must come to an end. All know all great bear market must come to kill most of traders and investors to clean up the bushland in the stock market. All know all great bear market must generate false hopes to keep most in the ruins after them not during them.

    Anyone, who have experienced all of the great bears in last decade with cuts and hurts financially and psychologically, has to think the reasons why we know so much but we still enjoy to jump onto the fire. What motivated you to be so insane, crazy, and voluntary to burn themselves on the fire? What motivated you blame, complain, struggled in the ruins, and failed to force you to be wise and intelligent?

    I do see the insanity and stupidity are here or there and worse that we seemingly learn nothing but keep our primary instinct with the words which sound logic and wise.

    ***
    Do you really know what you believe you know? Do you sense you are dying and need some resolution to change and fix yourself, the only enemy in the stock market? I just feel funny to see any words to gloss themselves as though all of the world could be in the hell but they can just win out. Are you so invulnerable?

    Pains usually cool people's head but it also can force people to ignore the ills or tumors to feel they are not hopeless to be alive or find the quickest way to let the pains gone even it means you have to throw the babies out of the windows with the bath water.

    Bear experiences are assets. From which you can learn a lot not to support your insanity or self-gloss but find the weapon to fight out from the valley of death built by your most devil, yourself. Bears will kill most of traders or investors. I don't want and I have to learn in the bears and make my way to be alive out of the bears.

    ***
    Could you walk out of the bears one after another? Could you start now and put the surgeon knifes onto your tumors and ills? Traders and investors are hopeless since few can ask the brutal questions from wisdom. Most of them should die and wipe out.

    Why didn't GFC kill me? I had learned something and known I have to protect myself and have not to follow the crowd, I have not to cheer or tear as most of traders or investors just because I really need comrades or mates, I have to separate this or that forum from the social club.

    Unfortunately I was not good enough to be disciplined, analytical, and self-reliant last year. It was not the bear killed my paper profit or anyone of my mates but myself. I have learned a lot even I still could not turn the wisdom as my instinct but I do know I need to protect myself from the insanity and craziness.

    ***
    Wisdom and intelligence don't need anyone's agreement and approve. They are torches in the valley of death. They are the light at the end of tunnel. They are the leader to the days when all are under the sun.

    I have to struggle for them even all of the people here or there would like to die with the insane and crazy mates. They are gamblers and the human kind and the stock market would go forward without them. Anyone died with ERG stopped, is stopping, or will stop the move of this forum or the stock market?

    After a decade hopeless to use our primary instinct for quick money, we need to do something creative. If the illness is in your bone and cells what should you do?

    ***
    Language is the bridge between the real and imaginary worlds. It doesn't matter we like or not language are the only tool to crash the barriers for a healthy mental framework.

    Why abuse it? Why let it as weapon to aggravate yourself for insanity? Why use YouTube to let the toxic into your mind and destroy your own money and life in the stock market? Why are you irritated by the wise and intelligent words? Do we have to use it for our feeling rather than the wisdom, intelligence, and knowledge if we want to be alive in the stock market?

    Oh, don't mistake me. I have given up any attempt to drag anyone down. If you feel so, I beg your pardon. Please ignore me for your own interests and independence.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 24th May, 2012
  3. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Discarded trading forums...

    Traders have been in capitulation mood for quite long time. GFC crash played its part significantly but not enough.

    Some of traders still had the energy and backup to curse, blame, and provoke between 2009-2010. Most of them failed to join the V-Shape recovery but this so called dead cat bouncing definitely gave the hopes. There were remnant left in nearly all of trading forums.

    However the repercussions of GFC and intensification of EC crises, have greatly dried up the left blood of traders and investors. Few now have enough power to curse if they are still in the market rather than in the side lines.

    ***
    Most of forum become man-scarce deserted land. Too many mates under the mateship have wiped out from the market. Traders have lost its last color and they feel shamed to talk about their causes in the dinner tables. Now the most serious conviction from traders are "your words are killing the people."

    It is very phenomenal where the forums and their members go. Now it is not a issue how the alive traders/investor can get fortunes but how they can survive. No one can keep his spirit high if the stock market just beat him down again and again which seemingly no end. Are you very disappointed to see my words? I am disappointed too.

    Internet, instant communication, unsustainable no-managed or no-selected information, and fear and greed, have completely destroyed the dream by clicking the buttons for fortune. Trading forums to the first generations of on-line traders are speeding up to their graves. You may still wonder how it is possible but it is a unpleasant reality.

    ***
    What's the root causes of the death? Who is insane, you or anyone else? No insane people admit their insanity. Let's face our insanity before we become completely insane or wiped out. All of us read a lot but we read too quick. We may theoretically sane but we just use the sanity in the insanity way.

    Too many believe experiences have only positive effects to traders but it is never true. Too many just get the experiences as the bases for the word twisting. You lose more your fear would become more. Once a threshold is passed by, your gut would be reduced even under the Sun. You win more your greedy would become more. Once a threshold appear, your hot head would put your into the valley of death.

    Wild fire clean up the bushland. Forums have no traders means someone will appear differently. Some would sit on the line twist the words. Some would change their behavior for the challenges ahead. The experiences would play the part based on whom you are rather than how much your experiences would be only.

    ***
    Different ages have different valid strategies as opportunities, which would give some great opportunities for the people to have the right disposition. These opportunities just let these people have the chances to get the first bucket of gold. Few can hold the gold too long but some would. Since holding needs different from the plunge for the chances.

    There are a chance that an old investment strategy of Sir John Templeton, could reward the right people at the right time. He'd love to

    1. own "if only" they fell to a more attractive price.
    2. place limit orders to buy those companies at prices substantially below the current market price.
    3. have his shares at the prices he always wanted in the event of a sharp selloff.

    ***
    The rationale for the strategy used by Templeton was simple:

    1. we humans are instinctively herd animals, and we tend to panic when we see others around us panicking.
    2. we lose our independent judgment and we freeze in fear at exactly the moment we should be buying aggressively.
    3. we should take our own emotions out of the equation;
    4. we all own human shortcomings, and essentially gamed ourselves.

    Today, with Europe teetering on the edge of a potential meltdown, if you have not been consumed by Mr. Market, this strategy may give your some ideas how to do in the coming tsunami.

    If you want to use this strategy, it is necessary to be patient enough. Wall Street full of blood, which sometime looks so but it has still a lot of blood to shed out. The more you buy the riskier it is. It is the catch of this strategy and don't forget the catch!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 24th May, 2012
  4. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Time to lose friends fast.

    No too many in the stock market now can call anyone else as friends. It is a time you can lose friends fast. You sincerely tell your friends you find a gold mine but both of you are trapped later. Good friends become enemies and tight relationship is made even between couples in families.

    One rule in the stock market is never and ever to persuade your friends or loves to put the hard-earned money into the stock market. Once the money is lost, curses and blames would happen. To be independent and don't try anything to help anyone for quick money.

    If you really want to learn some lessons from the failure of the traders in last decade, it is one you have to remember.

    ***
    Facebook is great but its list let it lose friends fast. News said after Facebook listed on the US Stock Exchange, it is being sued in a class action.

    Do wonder it is a good way for anyone to take unaffordable risks and then sue others for their insanity. It never happened in IT boom time when all are crazy now only issuers are greedy. Human, who can really understand you? News said it is another blow to Wall Street's integrity but I do see it makes fortunes for the lawyers.

    I just could not see the buyers of IPO are sin-free. Now Facebook just loses 18%. I wonder if it loses 99%, what these class action can get!

    ***
    Investors claim they didn't have all the information leading up to the float. I do wonder how many so called investor really had the time to read the financial reports, and desire to think the margin of safety, before they bought. The GFC just gives the losers more rooms to curse others as though if they buy they have to get more.

    It should be normal if you sell the water mellow you have to say it is sweat reasonably even you don't want to cheat for your own profit. You can say these investors have reason to be upset with the issuers right now and you can question the IPO process. But the fact is even it is perfect who can be sure no tsunami happens just you buy the Facebook shares.

    You can not just complain others. As investors, you have to carry some responsibility. How could you buy something without due diligence? What if the price just go up to $68 now? All would be happy and more people would be crazy. In my view these guys deserve to lose.

    ***
    Don't forget all come to the stock market for quick money especially your friends who don't know anything about the stock market. If they lose the money, your friendship is over! They could not see the red even it is normal in the stock market.

    There are black swans in the stock market, which is normal and shouldn't be surprised if you buy you lose or if you sell the price continue to rise up. It is not just the fundamental or the cash in the vaults define the price but feeling of the future and the mood of the whole market.

    It is a business way to find the sure gold ahead but don't just trust your judgment without the room for your human errors and environment changes. Snowball need to be rolled along the snow field but it could be melt by accidents.

    You are killing me by your words! Maybe if you don't have the necessary protection and right brain. I do believe I am the beneficiary from my writing since the writing forces me to zoom in and out for my cell and blood full of gene of self-protection.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 25th May, 2012
  5. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Learn to see different scenarios

    All of us including me and Tropo, agree we need to be disciplined, analytical, and self-reliant in the stock market. It is important we know what we want but it is just the first step for us to be disciplined, analytical, and self-reliant.

    Most of time especially in the extreme times, we behave insane, crazy, fretted, and knee-jerk. Greece has probability more than 75% to exit from EU orderly or disorderly.

    1. Greece has given the world a set date to decide collectively whether or not it would leave away from EU and struggled for its disasters.
    2. Greece has forced the members of EU to prepare the consequences in worst cases.
    3. We can say no one really has known what will be displayed ahead but once Greece decides to leave, the people stick to the hope it would not, would be shocked and quite probably rush into the exit if they feel they could not be alive in the shocks.

    ***
    We have to know some events are significant and once they happen they would become swords to cut anyone underneath into the pieces. The logic is if you know where you would die you should not put your neck onto it. After so long time in the extremely fear and depression, you can become numb to the risks or you would try all to ignite the light of hopes. The risk is real.

    We need to learn and see different scenarios of Greece election. What if Greece leaves? What if Greece doesn't leave? What if the leaving is in order or in disorder? Don't think too general about others' warfare as a trader or investor but put the scenarios under the scrutiny of where you are and what impacts on you. You could not forget you are your leader. It is your discipline for your money; your analysis for your chances or risks; your self-reliance or struggling for your future.

    What are the chances? What are the risks? What if you miss this chance? What if you get caught by this risk? You need to learn writing them down even at the very beginning we really don't know what we should write down. Put the discipline into your writing and learn to refuse the populist's view. Get out of your box and back to it to make your box become your command hub before you let your army into the war service.

    ***
    Why do I say into war service not war only? There are tiny but critical perception difference, which is the reflection of my views about the life, economies, limitation of ourselves, and how to mix the chances and risks together for winning out.

    Under the sword of Greece exit, Facebook has to drop down from its issue price, in my view. It was issued at $38 from which it dropped down from there. I guess that if it was issued at $3 it would drop down from there too. That is the power of the crowd sentiment. The trading society plays the game based on the relative price not absolute value. In the gloom and doom, all want to pay as little as possible.

    Human is the experts for this kind of short sighted scheme. You want to sell, I want to sell, and then everyone wants to sell. The question is elusive but sure where it would stop the dropping and if you can buy with big margin of safety for growth.

    ***
    All know Warren Buffett is a value investor but he is more complicated than the value only. He can find good business, he can buy the good business at reasonable price, he has the gut to buy when all want to sell.

    Have you asked is he disciplined, analytical, and self-reliant? What's core of the self-reliance? The income not the gain to support him for his turn. Stupid, do you know why he doesn't buy gold? Think about it with the gain and income!

    There are a lot of matters in this world is compensated each other. It is not an rocket scientific issue but few would like to pay attention on it and use it as the base for his castle. I just feel very regret why I never know it before. Buffett is right IQ should be wasted in the stock market.

    ***
    In XAO, most of people if want to sell have sold but there are some speculative traders with the bargaining psyche still would sell out if Greece really exit.

    The question are do you want to take the risk if Greece exits; how much do you want to take the risks?; how do you manage your buying, holding, and selling in a safe way? Could we be safe if we buy BHP rather than RIO or vice versa if Greece exits?

    To me it cannot. So this question should be ignored at last even it is good to question rather than do nothing. Scenario analysis is a abstract mental exercise.

    ***
    Do you believe you have the capability to do the exercises? If not what should you do? Thinking about it before we are crazy!

    I believe I will have but I do feel it needs the change in behavior and the way to think about in this life and stock market. Do you agree with? It is your problem not mine, sir, anymore. I will update my mental framework.

    Now it is English Listening to lay out the base to let the wisdom, information, contradicted ideas, and intuition to flow with less and less barriers but later I have to get my model to service the warriors!

    ***
    Most of traders or investors would never have the resolution to change. The information flows in high speed but most the information would go through their brains without good enough digestion.

    The following matters need to be considered:

    1. the speed to take the information
    2. the speed of the information flow
    3. the speed of digestion of the information
    4. the speed of analysis and selection of the data necessary
    5. the speed, the right information picking up, and room for the judgment based on failed analysis.

    Very encouraged by the effects of the Listening Improvement to the behavior and disposition which are necessary to service the warriors.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 26th May, 2012
  6. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    FMS was sold...

    The nerves of traders around FMS are devastating after another 18% market value gone today. In the surprise, shocking, perhaps some mental traumas, they talked doom and gloom or bright future of FMS.

    Actually FMS performed very well comparing to any mining pennies. It didn't only shoot out from the ruins of GFC but made new height when most of pennies fell into water one after another. However the failed deal plus the rumors of Greece and China force their profited traders and investors to lock the profit. If I didn't sell to lock the profit at $0.13, I would sold at $0.29 after I realized how stupid I was to refuse locking the profit I didn't never want to lose.

    The sale of FMS so far since the beginning of May 2012 was never one on the fire. Anyone has made wise decision to sell before yesterday. The deal failed, the new deal needed more time to form, the IO needed capital to get out, and Greece exit could make everyone feels the IO ore were just rubbishes even it is never.

    ***
    The question worth of million dollars if not billions is what is the lowest price FMS would drop to. I really don't know but I would patiently wait and see. People around FMS are still hopeful but the market sentiment could fall into the brink. If it happens, FMS could be a great bargain at reasonable price.

    Why do you say so if you see it is chance you should keep it as business secret? Don't worry about my words is to lure your money into FMS but I want to write out what I really think about and try to get my biases out. I will keep some valuable info as secret but not before I can trust my mental framework.

    To FMS, its investors, and its traders, I feel very thankful. They helped me to get my first fish for a profit more than 1000%, which I struggled to lock. I do hope these who put money into FMS at $0.01 around could lock the profit rather let it gone.

    ***
    It was very thrilled to see its first shooting up at the end of 2007. It gave too much lessons and reward even GFC could not shorten the effects. I love this penny but I love the locked profit more now.

    Do wonder where its lowest price is in the tsunami of Greece and EU if the tsunami turns to be true? Who can tell me? Don't worry you can look back to GFC for the clue and that is a very critical reasons for the selling, I guess.

    The toughest traders throw their babies into the window when they feel hopeless for this world. Toughest warrior service need to be provided when this happens.

    By the way based on my understanding of the personality of XAO, if Greece exits, it would run as quickly as possible to lead the world into any imaginary worst scenarios. It is disastrous to any individual traders who could not protect themselves enough even collective economies would be benefited.

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 27th May, 2012
  7. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    China and its impacts

    GFC changed the sentiment and perception of the crowd in XAO. It has proven it was wrong that BRIC has decoupled XAO from the advanced economies if not fundamentally but sentimentally.

    Now few dare to believe EU and Greece could not put an end mark on the resource booming even XAO has stopped to lead but followed others to make lower low for months if you would like to say no years.

    In my view, XAO has changed from being feared by China's economic expansion to being feared by China's tip off even it becomes so much as August 2011.

    ***
    China, without matter you like or dislike, has played and will play an very important part to the direction of XAO. If we want to zoom out to get a holistic view, we could not sort out our own views about where China will go in years if not decades. National power depends on two things, the population and average productivity.

    Generally saying, China's economy should be able to withstand a collapse of Greece and EU even it could not avoid the impacts. China would definitely be hurt by a euro quake but perhaps less than many other economies. It implies that Australian economies would perform relative very well in coming years. This view is based on the following facts:

    1. Strictly saying China's market economies are not fully opened.

    2. It's financially more or less self sufficient.

    3. It doesn't rely on Europe finance as Australia does. Actually it saves much more than it invests.

    4. On trade it's obviously more exposed but it's actually less dependent on trade to Europe than it was before the financial crisis in 2008.

    ***
    China's inflation and slowdown economies after GFC are largely due to the financial crisis when exports clearly dropped off a cliff, China orchestrated an investment boom and that investment boom pushed up prices at home and made China somewhat less competitive abroad.

    Traders and investors in XAO used to dream China would eat the resources from Australia without matter what happen in advanced economies. Some Aussies feared China because of its exporting prowess. Since the peak of V-shape recover they have feared for China because people think this investment boom is unsustainable.

    In my view China could do with investing somewhat less, but it seems a false guess it's going to suffer a very acute, nasty economic crash. Its problems are more ones of waste and inefficiency rather than to end in some kind of financial collapse. The facts are:

    1. It's not investing with the borrowed debt from foreigners but the nation's own resources. 2. Its banks have largely captive depositors so they lend a lot from its deposits.

    ***
    Australia needs the demand on its resources from China. It is understandable the traders and investors in XAO is looking at China. A critical question is raised again and again by them:

    If the exports to Europe do dry up that so will China's demand for our commodities and therefore the terms of trade benefit drop down greatly? Objectively there are a couple of dangers such as growth slows dramatically in China. However it seems no tipping off will be there. Australia seems be able to probably count on quite high growth in China for some time to come.

    The future seems that growth will change and it should become less resource intensive after 5 or 10 years pass by. Actually the very heavy industrial development is taking quite a big toll on its environment. To some threshold it would have to hold its demand on the resources.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 27th May, 2012
  8. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    China's economical model works quite well so far. It's served China very well up until now. It is normal that economies become victims of their own success, that have clung to policies for too long. Actually it is true as what happen to successful traders and investors.

    A good policy, if it has just been persisted, would become bad policy. It is usually the case once any good policy is beyond its natural life. There are black swans and China needs the courage to open up further, that's often quite a treacherous step to take.

    A number of economies have found that very difficult to do without some kind of financial tremor. It is also similar to what happen to some traders or investors who make some profit but could not lock the profit with the change when environment changes.

    ***
    It seems much easier for China to slow down than keep or speed up its economic growth. Actually this slow down and possible tipping off set the base tone for XAO in the coming months if not years. We have to know China have high odds to slow down an quite probably slow down too quick.

    What if China just slow down too much? China's number is very big and the only economy with the kind of numbers to make up for China is India and it really hasn't done what's required to become a manufacturing powerhouse unfortunately.

    It seems that the end of cheap China is really the end of cheap full stop. It is a sure thing but we just don't know when cheap China would be at its end. What if EU stabilized? What if US economies become OK? What if China introduces more open and democratic political and economic reforms?

    ***
    Don't be too quick to get your conclusion but ponder what you should do for chances and enough safety.

    Crash is bad but it acts as bush fire to get the weeds and rubbish away. Boom is good but it accumulates hopes into over-optimistic and will inevitable to lead into flat out in best case and crash down into hell in worst case.

    It is logic to lock or save more in the good days for average your life in bad days. China is not a idealistic place for a lot of people but in hindsight its policies and business model works really to its environments of last 25 years.

    ***
    1. Its economies fell to its knee before 1977 and the communism globally failed to free the workers as the masters. Communism was theory for pig chiefs rather than workers.

    Most of veteran traders actually come to some points where they failed to get profit. They have failed to be self-reliant if they just trade or invest. Actually they never and ever get self-reliance in their life.

    Traders usually don't have their own views about the stock market, the vision based on the understanding of market, economies, financial system, and themselves, the operational procedure to protect them for profitable practices in the stock market.

    Most of traders and investors who jumped into stock market a decade ago now are in the brink or put an end mark for what they loved to do.

    ***
    2. It follows some very basic logic since: reform, opening, economy development, and social stability to balance the chances and risks. No change no hope. Change is not destroying all. Revolution is the last resort only. No stability no winner.

    Most of veteran traders know something about internet or computer. They can get the information very quickly but they have not the brains to process them. They never follow the logic but stick to the news, guess, and some over-simple lines and patterns. They are opportunists as best and are gamblers as worst. They can give the words such as discipline, analysis, and self-reliance but they don't know how to be and never want to know how.

    They are generally ignorant but they feel they are supreme, which definitely result in arrogance. In human history, we never have made so many ignorant, self-important, and arrogant crowd. They don't understand they need to change in this totally new place. They could not image that the stock market is a wild field and all of regulation is for common good but could mean risks to individuals. They don't know fire can burn their finger at least without protection.

    All in all traders in last decade have played as a ignorant, arrogant, and sled-destroyed group. They are the people no logic, no wise but stupid and idiotic gamblers.

    ***
    3. Where will China go? Hope it will go by following the basic logic. Human history is a evolutionary process with never stopped efforts for a bit better and better. Do hope China could make the system to lock what it has got and make itself more open and at least not worse. It is not easy but possible as Japan who had hold what it got for decades even it could not take any cheerful step.

    Most of traders become trading machines. They start to get the quick and more money which is hard or impossible to get from their workshop and offices. Some traders after failed tend to say money is not everything. Nothing is everything even one thing today is not the same thing tomorrow. They don't know they need change their mind evolutionarily. They don't understand they need to know what in the future if what.

    Some of them could be lucky and get some very good profit just because of lucks. Do you know the black swans? Something is unpredictable and 1000% profit or more is a prize, do you know, if you can smartly gamble? Few traders would like to accept the fact that naturally they are gamblers. So they have the tasks to lock the profit and put the money or their market practice as business.

    Some can admire Livermore's plunges but cannot understand why Livermore triggered the gun at his head. History and market sometime just give your some chances to gamble, which need little but can generate extremely high consequences. Why could Soros and Buffett get billions of dollars? They played the right parts at right time and place with the right, decisive, and focus decision. They know to lock the profit in the extremely safe and self-reliant ways.

    ***
    Open but never lose your mind. Reform but never lose your basic logic and due-diligence. Change in evolutionary way but never jump over fence everyday. When we get the chances we will get the risk. We have to enlarge the chance and minimize the losses if risks hit us!

    China in last 20 decades tried to invert its own mind. Australia has tried to invert its own mind in last 100 years. Both of them find the ways which follow the logic. As a trader I hate XAO's behavior but as a wise observer I appreciate its caution and rushes out from any risks so desperately. If you run you have to run first. If you can not run you have to get your corner strong enough.

    Rabbits and turtles can not run together. Slowness is not necessary to lose the race in marathon. In the stock market, you are still OK to reach your indirect goal one year or 5 year or a decade later. Get the income steady, get the fortune for a decades, and don't refuse if you get a fortune tomorrow.

    ***
    I was a gambler with some sharp sense in IT in the stock market before 2004 and in 2011. Gambler's feature is they bet for best consequences but no any or good enough protection if the market acts against them.

    1. Stock market is full of chances and opportunities.
    2. We can get some chances for some profit or even killings
    3. We can caught in crash when the stock market suddenly changes its course.
    4. We can calculate the probability if we want

    ***
    After I saw $400,000 paper profit in 2000, I wanted more and felt I could.
    It was ignorant, arrogant, and then I lost the chances to be self-reliant. Actually it was a time to lock the profit and move the capital into the emerging boom property market.

    In 2011, after I saw $180,000, I wanted more and felt I could too. I knew the risk in Japan, China, US, and EU then, but I did hope market could wait for me for another 2 months for less tax in the new financial year. It was most painful failure. In 2000, I didn't know I was wrong. In 2011 I knew what was wrong but after the crash I just had no time to stop my mistakes in time.

    Who don't know "tree can not grow up into the moon?" No traders are so stupid but in reality we do until the tree is burnt down to ground. Who don't know you have to lay the seeds into the soil? Too many traders drag their seeds out everyday to check its growth. They call their stupidity as stopping losses since they never have the confidence on their seeds.

    We have to know the fortune in the stock market come with the fire, which can destroy anything at some time and some places. We want to get the fortune but we don't want to die in the fire.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 27th May, 2012