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Trading firing up insight trader... pattern recognition

Discussion in 'Shares' started by voigtstr, 4th Mar, 2012.

  1. voigtstr

    voigtstr Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    24th Jan, 2007
    Posts:
    679
    Location:
    Hobart
    on a weekly chart of stocks between 10 and 20 cents the following caught my eye:
    VEI long time flat then a jump in the last two weeks
    RIA break of downtrend, next target about 55?
    LNG break of downtrend, target 80 or will it hit the resistance from 60ish
    APZ long time flat slowly edging back up, I have no idea of targets for this one
    CCC break of downtrend, where to next?
    CAP break of downtrend, target around 65?
    SSM break of downtrenc, target back up to 80?

    There are another 6 charts (TUC, ACL, TRF, ILF,HZN, RQL) that have similar patterns. The idea is I would then switch to daily charts for these stocks and look for daily buy signals. Do people agree that the stocks I've listed have potential from viewing the weekly chart... Also with APZ is a slow uptrend after a long period of flatness a reasonable indicator? Its been a while since I've looked through weekly charts looking for patterns, and I've got quite rusty.

    I'll be running a similar search in other price ranges as well.
     
  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    31st Mar, 2010
    Posts:
    1,292
    Location:
    Perth
    Is it the time for new hope in the market? Is it a died cat bouncing or a start point of the new recovery up slope?

    Since April 2011, this crash from V-Shape recovery top has last for nearly a year; XAO has move down from its average line for long term. DOW has taken all of the losses since 2008 back while all of the market players in ruins curse the GFC maker.

    ***
    The crowd seems still believe XAO and the Aussie house market should crash. Even less words could read from medias about China tipping off but Aussies still don't feel comfortable to see the fire in EU. The fact is that Aussies are more fearful than anyone else in other part of the world. XAO was the leader to assume GFCII would be true.

    Too much have been burnt and losing experiences just make the losers shut up the crying and tear in public but still worry and fear. I am happy to hold my position while the crowd still could not be cheerful let alone daring to dream their lovely party.

    ***
    When would the crow jump in? It is a matter only God knows. I don't want and could not predict. There are patterns for signal to stand out from noise. The crowd actually have give up any hopes in January 2012, which partially could be felt by the posts here.

    I stand at my position with all of efforts in building my defensive line. If it breaks down the psychological barriers to shoot up, I would like to see. If it takes more time to recovery, I don't need to worry. I would put more time to think how to sell the hot shares to the crowd. When to sell and run away for next buying at extremely low cost? It is a task I have to finish.

    ***
    Not easy task but I should do better than any time since 1997! I have a lot of winning experiences and painful experiences to lose the paper profit. I know I should be balanced. Hope I could make less human errors.

    Cheers for the crowd who could see the sky and the cake! We have to learn the crowd. Aussie one still believe the decoupling theory and the key for them to be crazy again is if China could land softly and EU OK.

    However I believe it would come back. Today we see the sign, when the patterns was called by the most sensitive and shrewd trader without too many losing experiences by lucks or just because of short trading experiences or having the gift few really have.

    ***
    Would you buy now? No! Why? Since 2004, I have bought for margin of safety and discount. I have tried to buy at the lowest tail of the price probability distribution. I want to buy when no one wants to buy even I didn't do so when I was desperate and feel very hot.

    I read and took a lot of notices about wave theories. Emotion is powerful and make some patterns but these patterns just tell some possible scenarios.

    1. Have you wonder why this ugly car could run very fast but that beautiful car just break out in the freeway?
    2. It is very difficult tasks to design a powerful, beautiful, and reliable car based on tail of smoking of a car passes by very quickly in the freeway.
    3. Do you know market is a complicated macro control system with too many feedback to change its course?

    I believe only if you pay less than what it is worthy, you would be more sure for your return even no one could say he would never speculate. I have bought or held what I believe they are in great discount. That is why I do worry my last defensive line rather than anything else in the ruins.

    Are you sure you would get what you want? Who could be sure? That is why the losers have to stop the losses constantly. I really want to stop the profit since I believe you should not make unaffordable risks and claim you are the experts to stop the losses. If you are experts in stopping losses where your return comes from?

    ***
    Simplicity is beauty. Simplicity doesn't mean easy or brainless mind. In the market there are three simple actions only: buying, holding, and selling. Patterns generally have three simple types: up, down, and flat.

    All of pains and cheers are based on these simple things and their impacts on you. At last you are sorted out by Market with the marks of winners or losers. When you call for simplicity brainlessly, you could turn the straight lines of support and resistance into the materials for your financial graves.

    ***
    Do you think George Soros is a man with simple lines in minds only? Do you think Warren Buffett just know the value of the companies? Do you think they are more complicated than you and should you become complicated enough to understand the simple logic and common senses in the market?

    Simplicity from a complicated mind by using wisdom and intelligences means successful. Simplicity from skillful hands controlled by the brainless crowd mind means failure. That was the lesson I have got from IT bust.

    It sounds you are not simple, isn't it? I am still in the stages of the evolution, where I could not be simple when it should be and be complicated as it should be. When could I get the stage to be simple and complicated as the market wants? I don't know, which may help me to be behaved in the market.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 4th Mar, 2012
  3. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    17th Aug, 2005
    Posts:
    3,394
    Location:
    NSW
    vei = res 0.43 - supp 0.1 (watch out !!!!).
    ria = res 0.45 - supp 0.325/0.24
    lng = res 0.55 supp 0.36/0.22/0.31
    apz= res 0.51 supp 0.47/0.45
    ccc = res 0.285 supp 0.31 (it may create double top).
    If this happen I would wait one day and see if it break on heavy volume.
    cap = res 0.43 supp 0.34/0.24/0.17.5
    ssm = res 0.44 supp 0.36/0.30/0.25

    Generally... I would enter with a relatively small position size, and pyramiding if dogs move in the "right" direction.

    Try opt for 1 to 3 risk/reward ratio.
    Make sure you do have a stop loss in place. Anything may happen so do not try to become another wdongli.
    Have fun !! ;)
     
  4. voigtstr

    voigtstr Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    24th Jan, 2007
    Posts:
    679
    Location:
    Hobart
    Thanks Troppo!
    Thats the sort of analysis I was looking for, cheers.