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First Qtr Navra Distribution?

Discussion in 'Managed Funds & Index Funds' started by BSB, 28th Sep, 2007.

  1. BSB

    BSB Well-Known Member

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    I can't believe it - it's the last day of a quarter and as far as I can tell, there's been not one skerrick of speculation as to what the upcoming distribution might be. This has to be some sort of record! :D

    I'll open the bidding at 2.4 cents. Ok, ladies and gentlemen - do we have any higher bids? Anyone, anyone.... ???
     
  2. MichaelWhyte

    MichaelWhyte Well-Known Member

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    OK,

    I'll pitch in... :D

    Based on my extrapolated unit price based on the current ASX200 level, Navra should be around 1.1690. I know that's a bit high because they never keep up in a rising market and the last two datum points are in an up trend, but lets assume a close around 1.1690 for now anyway.

    So, that's a unit price appreciation of 4.71c (4.0%) on their 2nd July price of 1.1219. So arguably, if we presume some capital preservation to offset capitalised interst on margin loans then it will be somewhere below 4.71c. However, knowing Steve is a bit of a marketer and probably will want to put a positive spin on the recent "volatility" it is possible they will distribute beyond the price appreciation achieved through this quarter. Possible, but I don't think so...

    OK, I'll go out on a limb and suggest around 4.5c (3.85%). 3.85% for the quarter beats their 10% annual goal so is consistent with their intent. That's my guess, lets see what others have to say. ;)

    Cheers,
    Michael.
     
  3. Mark Laszczuk

    Mark Laszczuk Well-Known Member

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    I wonder if I take a "guess", people will accuse me of cheating....

    Mark
     
  4. MichaelWhyte

    MichaelWhyte Well-Known Member

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    Probably! :D

    But go ahead and do so anyway... ;)
     
  5. BSB

    BSB Well-Known Member

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    Impossible surely! We all know that NFS and NI are separate entities. :D

    But....if you did happen to hear something interesting from across the corridor then by all means, share. ;)
     
  6. Mark Laszczuk

    Mark Laszczuk Well-Known Member

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    Well I did hear something across the border, my hearing must be pretty amazing, eh! I got an indicative quote of between 2 - 2.5 cents per unit.

    Mark
     
  7. Jayar

    Jayar Well-Known Member

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    Sorry, Mark, not good enough, mate. :D :D :D

    Think I'll settle for Michael's guess at 4.5c. :p

    I wish......................;)

    Jayar
     
  8. MichaelWhyte

    MichaelWhyte Well-Known Member

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    Funny,

    I'd much prefer Mark's guess at 2c personally! (Something to do with LVR preservation or some such and not needing the income) :p

    Cheers,
    Michael.
     
  9. Rick

    Rick Well-Known Member

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    Well I'll go for around the 4c mark as I want the income.

    Thats why I invested in the fund. :)
     
  10. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Co-founder Staff Member

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    You do realise that cash distributions are far better for you in relation to LVR maintenance than retained growth ?

    Simple reason being that 100% of the cash is applied to the outstanding loan balance, whereas only 70% (for example) of your retained value is applied if held in the fund (or reinvested).

    This does not take compounding into consideration - which will of course help your LVR more over the long term ... but as far as the difference in LVR between today (last day of quarter) and Tuesday (first day of next quarter) goes, taking a cash distribution will improve your LVR more than not taking one !!

    Numbers:

    $100,000 @ 70% LVR = $70,000 borrowed, $30,000 equity
    $100,000 @ 4% distribution = $4,000 cash paid

    After distribution: value drops to $96,000, loan drops to $66,000 = 68.75% LVR.

    Now, if you then go on to pay a lot of tax on that distribution, the numbers won't be quite as nice ... but if you aren't paying tax (because you're offsetting negative cashflow assets), or are on a low tax bracket, then it still helps. Either way - in the short term (before you actually have to pay the tax), the cash will improve your LVR.

    ... but I know that's not what you meant ... I was just wanting to point out some useful things for everyone to understand for planning purposes ... cash is worth more than your units are when it comes to short-term LVR maintenance (important if you are potentially facing a margin call!!) :D
     
  11. MichaelWhyte

    MichaelWhyte Well-Known Member

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    Sim,

    That presumes I use the distribution to pay down the margin loan of course. If it just comes out and there's no loan reduction then the LVR goes up.

    I know you knew I knew, but thought I'd post some clarification anyway... ;)

    Cheers,
    Michael.
     
  12. BSB

    BSB Well-Known Member

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    Well, I'm glad you've cleared that up! :p
     
  13. petraska

    petraska New Member

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    My guess is 2.5c
     
  14. artgul

    artgul Well-Known Member

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    Today, I called and was told that for the AUS funds, the distribution would be around 2.5%. We should have it by next week.
     
  15. gad

    gad Well-Known Member

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    Hmmmmm ...... 2.5 cpu or 2.5% ?
     
  16. MichaelWhyte

    MichaelWhyte Well-Known Member

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    I'm guessing 2.5cpu which is "around" 2.5%...
     
  17. gad

    gad Well-Known Member

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    I don't want to be picky Michael but 2.5% of the closing price of $1.1596 is app. 2.899cpu which does make a considerable difference in my case, especailly when I am taking it as cash for the first time (needed).
     
  18. SugarFreeGum

    SugarFreeGum Member

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    Distribution has been posted on navrainvest. 2.8cpu for the Retail fund
     
  19. Redwing

    Redwing Well-Known Member

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    'm presuming dividends etc will be in around th 14th?

    How has anyone found the process going through their Margin Lender; is it a day or three more (I'm using Suncorp)?
     
  20. handyandy

    handyandy Well-Known Member

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    Spoke to Navra today and they said payment should be made on the 11th.