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Future for LPT's

Discussion in 'Real Estate Investment Trusts (A-REIT / LPT)' started by Smartypants, 29th Jun, 2007.

  1. Smartypants

    Smartypants Well-Known Member

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    Hi all.

    Just wanted to get your thoughts/opinions on the future of LPT's.

    About 4 months ago I invested 100K with CFS (over 2 different funds), which is now worth about 90K. Nothing massive at this stage and was probably not the best timing on my part.

    I know any managed fund can go up and down, but would be interested to hear if anyone else is pulling their money out of LPT's and putting it elsewhere or keeping it put for the moment.

    Maybe I should've just upped my Navra holdings but was looking for a bit of diversification.
     
  2. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Co-founder Staff Member

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    LPTs were overpriced and are now experiencing a correction. This will eventually sort itself out.

    That being said, I have pulled my money out of both CFS W/S Property Securities and CFS W/S Colliers Global Property Securities ... but don't forget I'm much more active with my funds than most people.

    Note from the attached charts that both these funds have now crossed below the 200 day moving average ... which gives me a clear sell signal. I'd be interested to see if other property securities funds are performing as badly at the moment.

    I've also attached a graph of the XPJ index, which is currently nearly 10% below its recent highs.

    I continue to watch these funds closely, and once a clear recovery is in evidence, I will most likely re-enter.
     

    Attached Files:

  3. Smartypants

    Smartypants Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the reply Sim.

    Your "this will eventually sort itself out" comment has me thinking that maybe I should show a little patience and persevere.

    Hehe, by coincidence, the 2 funds you mentioned are the 2 that I invested with.

    I did invest for the long term with this "purchase", but I suppose there has to be a point where it is wise to move your money elsewhere. Just have to work out where that point is.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 29th Jun, 2007
  4. Simon

    Simon Well-Known Member

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    Give us a nod when you see a buy signal please mate ;)
     
  5. gad

    gad Well-Known Member

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    One fund I have been considering is the
    EQT SGH LaSalle Global Listed Property Securities Trust
    but it has also been going backward since I started monitoring it back in April.

    I have been waiting until after this distribution to lessen any CG tax before selling some Navra funds but am baulking at getting into this fund. Then I think this might be the right time to get in but worry about how much further they might fall. Will go ahead with the other funds but I just can't convince myself to take money out of a fund that's doing so well (Navra) to put into a fund that's performing miserably (regardless of diversification ect).
     
  6. voigtstr

    voigtstr Well-Known Member

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    What's your buy signal?
     
  7. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Co-founder Staff Member

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    It's pretty complex (I have a computer program generate the signals and weightings for me), but in simple terms, the 100 and 200 day MAVs must be heading upwards, with the 100 day > 200 day MAV, 50 day > 100 day MAV, 20 day > 50 day MAV and current unit price > 20 day MAV.

    It's about buying with the upwards momentum.
     
  8. voigtstr

    voigtstr Well-Known Member

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    Thanks Sim,
    that program of yours could be a money spinner of its own, if you put it on a website, and charged a fee to unlock it's features or charged a fee for disk burning and delivery etc.
     
  9. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Co-founder Staff Member

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    The problem is that any system which gives buy and sell signals is essentially giving advice - unless you are very very careful, you'd get into trouble with ASIC.
     
  10. voigtstr

    voigtstr Well-Known Member

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    You would need a lawyer to stamp some text in there somewhere disclaiming that the software constitutes personal advice. If each time you opened the software a macro popped up a box saying "not financial advice", "general in nature" "not suited to your own investment aims or needs"..consult your own financial planner etc etc etc" then I think you would be covered. Any Lawyers on this site would probably provide some watertight wording for you (and further legal advice) for free to get their hands on this cool program of yours :)
     
  11. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Co-founder Staff Member

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    I also don't know whether it works terribly well yet - it's only been in use about 6 months! :eek:

    It is certainly my intention to put the charting aspect of things online - the buy/sell signals is something I'd have to think about.
     
  12. DaveA

    DaveA Well-Known Member

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    take a cash only payment and it could escape John Howards hands as well...

    The other way you could do it, is sell the rights to someone like NickM who could then on charge this clients (or invested members) to use it...

    i agree though buy and sell signals may put you in a hairy position, maybe you could provide the charts for a fee but then informally instruct people how you use the charts to determine the buy and sell signals and if they copy you, and fail you couldnt see the reasonable connection of advice being provided and thus your not liable...

    i do love your charting though, must of taken many hours of work to perfect...
     
  13. johnnyb

    johnnyb Well-Known Member

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    Wouldn't the way to sell this product be like any other charting software, ie provide the functionality and let the user define the calcualtions. It's up to them to decide what to use as a buy/sell signal.

    I think the real value in this product would be to provide the unit prices for all of the funds, as they are quite difficult to get as an individual (without writing messy scraping code). This is the only thing stopping me creating my own version of this product.

    John.
     
  14. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Co-founder Staff Member

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    I think the point is that people want my buy and sell signals (based on the assumption that my system will improve the performance of their investments - which I don't know is actually valid yet ... ask me again in 10 years time) :D

    Yup - this is a problem ... the only way to get accurate data is to pay for it, and the price means that there must be cost recovery somehow, which means potentially charging for access. Makes the whole system much more complicated and potentially quite costly to set up.

    I have a couple of small projects to complete over the next few weeks, but then I hope I'll be in a position to start looking at this and see what progress can be made.