I heard the song, "The Gambler" first time in 2009 after I quit my job and became a full-time market student. I liked this song very much and thought all of us gamble on something day after day due to the uncertainties of the future. Too many market warriors and pundits don't understand the part of gambling in life and market. They are scared to die when market is fearful and cheered to be euphoric when market is manic. They could not understand the winning is not about the value, dog, swan, gold, US dollar, China great booming, the resource but the relationship between them and the time you hold the position with them. *** If you ask me what the most important lesson I have got, I would tell you that is buy for margin of safety while you could identify them with high probability. Why high probability not sure fact? The truth is in the market 99% of the market players are too clever to the fact but too stupid to deal with the uncertainties! All we know we should buy at the peak. Could you tell me who really don't know it? But we just buy at the peak with the dream this time things would be different. All we know we should not sell on fire or at bottom. Could you tell me who really don't know it too? But we just sell on fire and follow the media to cry for the sky to fall down! *** We warn us "not to buy at peak" when the market crashes down to the bottom. We warn us "not to sell on the fire" when the market climbs up to the peak and the music is moving to its end! We all like to show we are clever but we tend to be stupid and idiotic we should not! Some people ask what is my own problem in the market. Before I could give you some idiotic answers but now I could say my problem is I tend to be head hot when the market is hot! I did not lose any pennies in IT boom but I lost $400,000 paper profit in IT bust! I didn't lost any pennies in GFC but I did lost $180,000 paper profit between April 2011 and June 2011! After some great winning bets I tend to believe I am genius even I never claim publicly! Whom I am? An fool in a market for a game or business for fools to win or lose! We are gambling on something and we need to know what it is about and put ourselves in some great organization about our minds! This organization is our mental system rather than the system with the link to the computer's hardware and software! *** So regularly listen the song "The gambler" would be great helpful! You could be value, tech, or whatever you like but you have to solve the problem every gambler has to solve: * On a warm summer's evenin' on a train bound for nowhere I met up with the gambler, we were both too tired to sleep So we took turns a starin' out the window at the darkness 'Til boredom overtook us and he began to speak He said, "Son, I've made a life, out of readin' people's faces And knowin' what their cards were by the way they held their eyes So if you don't mind my sayin', I can see you're out of aces For a taste of your whiskey I'll give you some advice" * So I handed him my bottle and he drank down my last swallow Then he bummed a cigarette and asked me for a light And the night got deathly quiet and his face lost all expression Said, "If you're gonna play the game, boy, you gotta learn to play it right" You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em Know when to walk away and know when to run You never count your money when you're sittin' at the table There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealing's done * Every gambler knows that the secret to survivin' Is knowin' what to throw away and knowing what to keep 'Cause every hand's a winner and every hand's a loser And the best that you can hope for is to die in your sleep And when he finished speakin', he turned back towards the window Crushed out his cigarette and faded off to sleep And somewhere in the darkness the gambler, he broke even But in his final words I found an ace that I could keep * You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em Know when to walk away and know when to run You never count your money when you're sittin' at the table There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealing's done You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em Know when to walk away and know when to run You never count your money when you're sittin' at the table There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealing's done You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em Know when to walk away and know when to run You never count your money when you're sittin' at the table There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealing's done *** Do you know when to fold'em and know when to walk away and know when to run? I don't know when to walk away and run but can fold if I don't have the chips in hand usually! It tends to force me stay on the table too long and lose what I have got! Do you count your money when you are sitting at the table? No usually when I buy since I believe if the chances are there and have great probability to win you have to hit out, but yes when I have more chips on the table and head becomes hot! Do you know you would have the time to count when the dealing has done? Yes now but not at all before 2004! When the game is over, you have to lock the profit and enough profit but I usually become greedy with my paper profit! If you don't know these your value, swans, and system would send you into the hell; the more genius you are the more you would lose until you cannot lose anymore! Don't think so? Time will tell you all! *** Misunderstanding in life logic and common senses are fatal. Misusing of the tech and systems can be corrected and should not be fatal! Most of warriors fail to know the 101 rather than the skills to run a lovely system designed by others! I am not clever and a genius in the market. I claim I am a market fool with belief I could be wiser day after day and would like to get wiser with my time and efforts! I believe things would move to its opposite if they go too far in one direction! I believe the sky is safe and storm and music will stop at some time points! I don't believe we could be rich by googling for the information for our own sanctification. It is never easy to make the money. The easy to google for the information could mislead us in the road for the least difficult but failed road! I don't believe genius in the stock market but do believe it needs the intelligent and wisdom! I do believe you could not believe the human errors and you have to put some buffers for your mistakes! *** I do believe it is crazy to dump 100million of KIK shares even it could be a rational decision to cut off the traps for some big boys! Short pains much better than crying everyday! I never see anyone comes back from the hell. You burnt all and put yourself in the hell? You have to pay the cost to get out of it even the cost is huge! Fortunately these big boys could afford the cost! I would like to help these big warriors out of the hell and believe after I help them from the hell I could get the ticket for some great profit! The storm would produce a zero-sum game. To these big warriors it is nothing even KIK back to $0.03 but to me it would mean a 10 baggers! I don't need too many 10 baggers but one or two of them are good enough for the fools as me! *** We cannot predict the future but we could have our own selection for what scenarios we would prefer for our own future! We could make mistakes and then we also could design some buffer to abate the fatality of our mistakes! It is craze to deny we could make mistakes; it is crazy to give up to buffer our mistakes; we could go forward profitably when we make the mistakes one after another!