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Trading Gold bugs or Gold Players?

Discussion in 'Shares' started by wdongli, 24th Feb, 2011.

  1. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    You like gold, don't you? But if you, as gold bugs, failed to get any significant profit in the last decade, you are real bugs in your "self." If you could get significant profit from gold, you are wise gold player. Bug destroys the asset. The players wisely get the money into their bank accounts. Human should be player but bug, shouldn't he?

    More thought in Blogs - Member Blogs
     
  2. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    When all of golden fishes shoot up?

    We, as market players, all try to see the truth of the reality by eyes, which sounds all of us are very rational. However most of market players and traders don't get the sense that the relative truths between now and future are more important that the absolute feeling of the risks. The relative truths are things to show the dynamics of market and if market is dead water, the truth is too simple and then all should get nothing but the dead water.

    Let's see the gold and gold ultimate bubble in dynamical way: We see the risks of gold ultimate bubbles; we believe they are avoidable risks if we don't buy gold and golden fishes at all; however if you take the future risks as the immediate risks you simply miss the chances to get gold and golden fishes when they are not at ultimate bubbles; so logically you avoid the future avoidable risks theoretically but you lose the chances to get the profit when the huge risks loom in gold ultimate bubble since you could sell before everyone could see the risks.

    Risks and chances are not about avoidable, achievable, and trustful in white and black based on the what happen in the market now but what happen in the past, now, and future, in which some events happen and would change the mind of market herd. We need to check our vision and scale our probability of the future events and the relative truths on the profit. What if gold price shoots up to $2000 since the inflation fails to be controlled? What if US dollar drops down too much?

    Seriously saying I really don't know where gold price will go. I just want to ask the questions for the opened mind. Some risks are right one which could be avoidable or not but the cost could be the opportunity. I just wonder if gold price just up and up, at some threshold point, the market herd would jump in. They will since the cake would be seen in the sky. What the herd could do for a beautiful cake? They would take all of the risks without any chance to win anything. Should we avoid this shirt-losing risks? I prefer to take some risks if herd never jump into the gold ultimate bubble since they should jump in otherwise we could not see the arrival of the gold ultimate bubble.
     
  3. wdongli

    wdongli Well-Known Member

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    Too complicated for information and too simple for wisdom

    It seems that in the market all of us have two unbalanced capabilities: we make the information accumulation too complicated or we put too many trivial matters into our minds. We see risks today as those in tomorrow. We are scared by the risks which happened in the past. We take yesterday's chances as today's life boat. We take tomorrow as the extension of today.

    So what happen in the market and repeat again and again is just after we predict the old man, buffett, is out of date, he makes new profit with the right, steady, decisive bet with his wise mind. I don't think he has the prediction capability but he just could complicate the matter it should and simplify those it should too. He doesn't play the gold since he doesn't believe he could do the best, which is good reason. However too many of market players play or don't play the gold with wrong reasons!