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Gold In AUD

Discussion in 'The Economy' started by Chris C, 24th Mar, 2009.

  1. Chris C

    Chris C Well-Known Member

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    Gold in terms of Australian dollars is the cheapest its been in a couple of months.

    I just thought I'd start a thread on whether people see this as a good buying oppurtunity despite the depreciating USD? Or do people think gold in AUD has further to fall in the short run?
     
  2. Winston Wolfe

    Winston Wolfe New Member

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    Brisbane
    gold is a highly volatile commodity.
    I wouldn't recommend anyone have exposure to it unless they:

    A: hold for at least 18mths based on structural fundamentals.

    B: trade the news and fundamentals, in combination with technical analysis (clear entries and exits).

    C: hedge gold with oil etf's.


    Holding gold in AUD is a doubled bet on bears prevailing....i.e. when bears prevail, gold goes up and aud goes down...(unless the USD is going down quicker)

    Recently, the move down in gold:aud is
    55% due to gold:usd
    45% to AUD:USD.

    IMHO, there's no strong buy signal presently.

    0.70 AUD:USD is likely to be a new support level for the aud until new news of US or Euro banks stress and very bad economic news.
    Gold support is very difficult to judge.
    Lots of money is coming out of gold currently into equities.
    I am waiting for this bear market rally to reverse convincingly before getting back in........

    Respected gold traders trade infrequently with multiple TA signals.

    here's a couple of respected sites
    Kitco
    Financial Sense
     
  3. Chris C

    Chris C Well-Known Member

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    Location:
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    Thanks for the comments Winston I enjoyed reading your response.

    Gold is continuing to be punished in this bear market rally, but from my perspective its declines at this stage are making further investment into gold more attractive, though I'm buying based on fundamentals with the intention of holding for the longer term 12 - 24 months+.

    At the same time this rally seems to have built up a bit of steam and I don't know if there is much on the very short term horizon that will reverse it at this stage, though it will be interesting to see what the RBA does on Tuesday - could have a big effect on the AUD.
     
  4. Winston Wolfe

    Winston Wolfe New Member

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    0.25% was pretty much what the market expected judging by aud movements.

    I was trading the SP500 last night. signs of a top in this rally were supported by money fleeing finance for defensives like health, staples, utils during the morning. I expect there'll be a fibonacci retracement over the next 1-2 weeks. But the rally could continue after that, which would keep gold:usd weak.

    will be interesting to track aud if there is a sp500 retracement. if it doesn't breach .70c, the bulls are getting cocky about global activity picking up. and it would strengthen the chance aud goes above 0.80. aussie cash rate stands out like the proverbial now....