GOLD

Discussion in 'Shares & Funds' started by Chomp__, 9th Dec, 2008.

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  1. Chris C

    Chris C Well-Known Member

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    Well it looks like gold put on almost $70AUD in the last 24 hours after thatn 600+ point plunge on the DOW last night!

    Crazy.
     
  2. rambada

    rambada Well-Known Member

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    Its always good to get a win.

    Anyone any thoughts on Silver?
     
  3. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Silver spot: (short term)
    resistance = 18.858
    support = 17.455

    long term :
    resistance = 19.449
    support = 14.916
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 8th May, 2010
  4. Chris C

    Chris C Well-Known Member

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    Some say it's a poor man's gold...

    That said I own a few physical kilos of it, but I don't really plan to buy any more, I will probably stick with gold.

    :D

    There are actually a few pundits/analysts out there that like silver more than gold given the when looking at silver from a monetary perspective you can form the argument from a historical gold to silver rather that either gold is overvalue relative to silver, or silver is undervalued relative to gold.

    But then again some argue that silver doesn't really hold monetary money value like gold given that central banks don't settle in silver and it isn't really seen as a genuine money alternative any more. That said if there were a lot of fiat currency crisises over the next few years and decades I wouldn't be surprised if silver did re-emerge as a monetary alternative to gold and paper currency.
     
  5. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Silver

    Federal agents have launched parallel criminal and civil probes of JPMorgan Chase and its trading activity in the precious metals market, The Post has learned.

    The probes are centering on whether or not JPMorgan, a top derivatives holder in precious metals, acted improperly to depress the price of silver, sources said.

    The Commodities Futures Trade Commission is looking into civil charges, and the Department of Justice's Antitrust Division is handling the criminal probe, according to sources, who did not wish to be identified due to the sensitive nature of the information.

    The probes are far-ranging, with federal officials looking into JPMorgan's precious metals trades on the London Bullion Market Association's (LBMA) exchange, which is a physical delivery market, and the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) for future paper derivative trades.
     
  6. Chris C

    Chris C Well-Known Member

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    When did this news come about?
     
  7. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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  8. Chris C

    Chris C Well-Known Member

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  9. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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  10. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Reflection on Gold as an Asset Class

    In terms of sentiment there is an inherent premium built into gold because it is viewed as a safehaven currency.
    This opinion is generally sold to the public by investors who genuinely believe the world is going to end or that the modern economic system will ultimately fail as the dollar crumbles.
    These people genuinely believe that the entire global economy will collapse one day and we will all be sitting around trading our gold bars back and forth. This is pure and simple fear mongering.
    ...This is not to imply that the U.S. dollar can’t fail or that the fiat currency system will always exist in its current form, but the idea of reverting back to a time when we carry gold in our pockets in order to purchase goods is simply ludicrous. “Barbarous” as some might call it.

    The truth of the matter is that the fiat currency system is simply an evolutionary step in our economic progress.

    Those who latch onto the days of the gold standard simply don’t understand how fiat currency works in the current floating exchange rate system.

    If you want to believe the global economy will one day collapse that is just fine, but should that scenario actually pan out the last of your concerns will be which local market is accepting gold in exchange for food.

    The man with the most lead will be the man with the most food in that scenario....
    more... REFLECTIONS ON GOLD AS AN ASSET CLASS | PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM

    Gold Rally Fails. Will a Big Drop Be Next
    Gold Rally Fails. Will a Big Drop Be Next? -- Seeking Alpha
     
  11. Johny_come_lately

    Johny_come_lately Well-Known Member

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    I only buy gold jewelery. I like the shine and colour. Gold ETFs don't give any distributions. At least jewelery looks good.




    Johny.
     
  12. Chris C

    Chris C Well-Known Member

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    The global economy won't collapse, but many of the indebted western nations will.

    I don't think anyone actually expects that we'd revert back to engaging in transactions with gold, but it's not like central banks and government are dumping their gold or are calling it worthless. They are on the other hand dumping lots of fiat paper into the economies.

    Fiat money is a novel step, but unmanaged, unregulated fiat currency debasement isn't an "evolutionary" step, it's a destructive step.

    Fiat currency might have its benefits, but an exponentially growing money supply doesn't.

    Those that advocate current economic policies don't understand Austrian economics.


    Gold coins look good too.

    :D
     
  13. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Greek Scramble For Physical Brings Gold Price To $1,700 Per Ounce

    "The fear running through the Greek populace is that the nation’s government may default on some of its debts.
    Since 1965, the Greek government has imposed restrictions on trading British Sovereign gold coins (gold content .2354 oz).
    Despite those restrictions, the Bank of Greece reports that it is selling an average of more than 700 coins per day to worried Greeks.

    In the first four months of 2010, the Greek central bank sold more than 50,000 sovereigns at its main downtown Athens office.
    Bank officials estimate that at least 100,000 other coins changed hands on the black market.
    The Bank of Greece has received as much as $409 per coin, which works out to a price of more than $1,700 per ounce of gold!
    Prices paid on the black market are reckoned to be even higher.
    A popular spot for street vendors to sell their coins is near the Athens Stock Exchange.
    There the traders wait for citizens to bring payments received from unloading their paper assets like stocks and bonds.

    The US government and some state governments such as California are in financial straits as bad as or even worse than Greece.
    How long will it take before American buyers will have to wait in lines to pay outrageous premiums for what are now bullion-priced gold and silver coins?
    More than one analyst thinks those days will come within a few months or sooner".
    more...http://www.zerohedge.com/article/greek-scramble-physical-brings-gold-price-1700-ounce
     
  14. Waimate01

    Waimate01 Well-Known Member

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    Here's an interesting article with a counter-view on gold:

    ROI: Why I Don't Trust Gold - WSJ.com

    The point is made that gold has no intrinsic value, and that profit is only available if someone else comes along who will pay more. The suggestion is made that gold works the same way as a ponzi scheme.

    That might be a tad harsh. Gold might be a good alternative to wads of fifties buried in the backyard, in that in inflationary times the fifties will lose value but the gold may not. But plenty of other things hold their value in inflationary times - cans of baked beans and ammunition come to mind, but also part ownership of businesses. Best of all, the business will continue to pay dividends while the gold just sits there.
     
  15. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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  16. realestate_basket

    realestate_basket Member

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    I think gold has its cycle. If you look at the graph here Gold and the 9-year Cycle | Tim Wood | Safehaven.com, it peaked in 1980, then went down and started going up again in 2001. It tends to have high value when the global economy is in crisis and have lower value otherwise. So you just need to catch the trend and exit at the right time.
     
  17. Chris C

    Chris C Well-Known Member

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    Thus the reason it makes a little sense for everyone to buy a little bit of physical gold to scurry it away, because if the proverbial **** hit the fan, gold might not even be possible to lay your hands on.


    It's not a ponzi scheme it's just a currency alternative, but if the fiat currencies that most governments support are sound and what they collect taxes in then gold is always going to be in low demand.

    Of course all fiat currencies throughout history have eventually collapsed because they are ultimately used and abused by individuals of vested interests. Most of the fiat currencies of today have at least been debased substantially, thus the reason gold has surged over the past decade.

    That said, the gold "bubble" will eventually bust when governments and banks pull their heads in and commit to operating a sound and fair monetary system. It's just that many people are starting to suspect that this process isn't something that is likely to happen any time soon, and if anything the debasement of present fiat currencies is likely to continue and possibly escalate.

    Almost anything can be used as an alternative currency, and throughout history a huge range of different things have been used as currencies from salt, shells, stones, tally sticks... but some things make better forms of money than others, characteristics like being transportable, divisible, durable and universally accepted help, which make things like gold and silver good money substitutes.

    Plus you can go virtually anywhere in the world with an ounce of gold and not have any trouble getting it turned into local currency at reasonable commission rates and you'd probably have much better luck trying to buy something in any country in the world with an ounce of gold than Australian dollars.

    You don't have to delve too deeply into history to realise that gold and silver serve a very practical purpose and have tended to do a much better job at it than fiat currencies over the long run.
     
  18. Chris C

    Chris C Well-Known Member

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  19. Chris C

    Chris C Well-Known Member

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    It's surged to new highs again... it will be interesting to see if this the beginning of a surge higher or if it will correct significantly on deflation concerns.

    I sure would like to see some cheaper prices... I'd like to buy more, but I don't like buying at all time highs...

    :(
     
  20. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    1296, 1303, 1316...1321 :eek: