Boom and bust push the warriors into the valley of death day by day. There are a lot of lessons to traders and investors. I was alerted by the extraordinary resource booming since I fully agree with the words from Nassim Taleb, the author of the Black Swan based on my experiences in IT booming: "Consider a turkey that is fed every day. Every single feeding will firm up the bird's belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race ‘looking out for its best interest,’ as a politician would say. *** On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief." However in hindsight, I didn't get all from the words, "something unexpected ... It will incur a revision of belief." After IT crash, I simply sold all and started to read about the stock market. I do know there are things could be worse after worse but I refused to see the belief change of the crowd. Who don't want to pay less tax when you are building the base? However the bottom line is you have to get the profit. Less tax for the gain is good. Losing the profit big enough is bad and very bad. Unfortunately I chose no profit and no tax: the worst case! *** 1929 Great Depression crashed a lot of dreams in the stock market. Few could get out of the hell or by no means to save themselves. Why did Livermore committed suicide? Why could B. Graham write the book, "Security Analysis" and "the intelligent investor?" GFC crashed a lot of dreams down too but fortunately US know how bad after the sky fall down. Bailout and stimulation did help the sky safe but some damages and more damages would be done. The trauma, the losses, the depression, the lessons, the blood in the Wall Street, and then the performance of XAO, force us to make senses or leaf away with nothing. I don't want to pretend I am better than anyone in the stock market. I am not smart, not genius for the economies and market, I have made a lot of mistakes as every loser in the stock market, I am just lucky enough that my mistakes don't burn me down completely, and I still have the desire to change myself. *** Seriously saying I am struggling in some dilemma: it looks abnormal that XAO down within reasonable good economies but it is not illogical completely: US is struggling to get economies back to normal track, China is slowing down, EU is facing its own reckoning one after another. 1. XAO has not the power to get its own way to boom in this environment. 2. But is it worse enough if not in the worst case 3. If the things worse, could we be profit? If not, is your asset running for your income? No easy or quick answers if staying along the crash all the way. Fear and greed are consequences from what you get from what you do. I admit my greed which I had in April 2011, actually I was always greedy or if I like the glossy words, very ambitious. Once a tiny but high-consequent event hits to me, I was unavoidable to be shocked. *** I just don't dare to learn too much skills to trade or invest in the stock market now. All of my mistakes so far are not this kind. Self-awareness is to know yourself but I still could not say I really know myself good enough. Environment-awareness is to know what conditions or context for what probable consequences and use the calculated probability to choose the options with margin of safety and enough resource in hand. Theoretically I feel encouraging to know it. In reality I tend to ignore the logic. I have to admit even now I want to bet that Greece could not take a exit from EU, which I feel the odds more than 80%. It is not bad probability but if Greece leave, the consequence could be very dire. How much resource I could afford to lose? *** It is not easy to be wise and intelligent. It is hard to break down the barriers in our brain to run safely and profitably in the stock market. I do realize I could not be no fearful if I was in the valley of death; I could not be no greedy when I was in the grand party for gold in the sky. I do hope I would feel fear when my cost runs, the crowd runs to the party, and the defensive line is fragile. I just could warn myself again and again not in the party or the valley of death. I am not so great that I could win in the valley of death. I am so so rich to pay the cost for the party. I need more time and effort to go deep to know what I have read. The simple matters kill or reward the people in the stock market. I need to be simple to the nut and then I am qualified to be complicated.