Goodman Fielder

What do people think of the coming Goodman Fielder float?

I had a great run of stagging floats in the 90's but this seems a different market now. But the Mum's and Dad's appear to be reentering the market again at this stage in the cycle so perhaps this one might be worth following.

What do people think?

Thanks

 

Simon

Whilst you may be able to stag it and run, I don't think this is a great deal for the mums and dads.

How come Goodman post (re)float won't have Uncle Tobys? And is the price being paid for Hart's NZ baking business a fair one?

He bought the business at 7 times EBITDA and is selling it at around 9 times. Hart's forte is trimming the fat from businesses, so query is there any more cost efficiencies to be had by Goodman?

the float share price equates to around 13-14 PER. Is that a reasonable ratio?

There seems to be more home/coles/woolies brand foods coming out now. How will that affect margins on branded foods? Will Goodman start producing generics for Coles and Woolies. Given the power of the retailing duopoly, it seems to me Goodman is damned if it does, damned if it doesn't. If it does then lower margins, if it doesn't then more competition poor shelf positioning etc etc.

Just some ramblings... long term no, "stag-able" possibly.

What do others think?
N.

 

There is a review of Goodman Fielder float in floattank.com.au - recommendation: Avoid. However, someone pointed out to me that when BlueScope Steel was floated the recommendation was avoid, but look at BSL now.

A side issue, it may be a good idea to have a forum section to discuss the goods and bads of new floats. Of course, each must make up his/her own mind to invest in them - but any discussion would stimulate people into further thinking.