Greece: tipping point

Hi,

The Greek Drama hits its high on Wenesday night. Will the parliment pass the new laws and accept a bailout? Will the people revolt? Does the Euro stand a chance? And how will all this hit my hip pocket? Stay tuned tommorow for more news.


Johny.

 

Only one hour to go before the vote in the Greek Government. The markets are up, suggesting that investors think the new laws will go through.




Johny.

 

Time to grab the popcorn and watch the action unfold!

 

The Greek prime minister is making his closing speech.






Johny.

 

Voting has started.






Johny.

 

The bill is passed. The Euro is saved( for now).







Johny.

 

Could Australia Stock market have less worries?

Greece debt crisis and default risk has taken Australia Stock market as hostage for months. XAO actually prepared for another global system crash. People are really scared since the pains of GFC still could be felt.

However there were 4 national scale debt crises in last 20 years and no one could drag the system down. They are:

1. Mexican peso crisis,was caused by the sudden devaluation of the Mexican peso in December 1994
2. Asian financial crisis was a period of financial crisis that gripped much of Asia beginning in July 1997, and raised fears of a worldwide economic meltdown due to financial contagion.
3. Russian financial crisis (also called “Ruble crisis”) hit Russia on 17 August 1998. It was triggered by the Asian financial crisis, which started in July 1997. During the ensuing decline in world commodity prices, countries heavily dependent on the export of raw materials were among those most severely hit. It led to (among other things) the bankruptcy of Long-Term Capital Management
4. Argentinian government debt/currency crisis in 2001. People fearing the worst began withdrawing large sums of money from their bank accounts, turning pesos into dollars and sending them abroad, causing a run on the banks.



Do wonder what would happen if Greece would be defaulted; how low XAO would be; could US, EU, Australia, and China be drag into the hell as the collapse of Lehman Brothers? There are something really different now and then. History should not just simply repeat even it rhymes.

What're the differences and similarity by themselves? What're the global macro economies and finance system? Do you feel the system are full of bubbles then and now? Could we be desperate for 20 months in Australia and then the market are still full of bubbles? Could you feel Australia as a whole is very conservative including RBA? Would EU collapse onto earth first and then the domino cards fall down one after another until all are in the hell? When and where the market would be at the lowest points in this extension phases of GFC?

Human nature tell us we could not see into the future and then we tend to predict the future based on the rear view mirror. Could we trust this mirror without any concern about the distortion when it chooses the darkness more than the light?

Market needs the wisdom and intelligence. Are we wise and intelligent to see the tip off in future just because we all tipped off in GFC? We need to invert our thinking one after another before we make our conclusion and then the judgment!

Consider the sentimental cycle with the market cycle may be quite helpful for us to see the hope in the darkness and see the risks in the bright days.



What do you feel now? Desperate, panic, capitulated, despondent, depressed, or hopeful? I guess most of market players would not feel anxious now. It should happen two months ago. Most of market are in despondent mood I feel. The more the selling, the more would be depressed. It should not happen now since the economy conditions don't allow it at moment, but who really know what herd would feel?

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