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Discussion in 'Managed Funds & Index Funds' started by MrDarcy, 14th Feb, 2006.

  1. MrDarcy

    MrDarcy Well-Known Member

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    We're half way through this quarter, can anyone comment on how NI is performing so far this quarter? Some nice volatility last few weeks, hope that makes for good returns :rolleyes:
     
  2. Tropo

    Tropo Well-Known Member

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    Some nice volatility last few weeks, hope that makes for good returns :rolleyes:[/QUOTE]

    If you review a market/shares daily closing prices over a period of time, you can observe that prices can go up and down.Fluctuating prices represent a market/shares volatility. Volatility doesn't represent a bias for up or down price movement, but just fluctuation over a period of time.
    The degree of fluctuation can vary whether a market/shares price trend is bullish and advancing, bearish and declining, or remains in a steady range over time.
    IMHO it's hard to talk about volatility as such (some intraday action so far) - if you consider latest pull back from the top (4982).
    :cool:
     
  3. MichaelWhyte

    MichaelWhyte Well-Known Member

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    Methinks MrDarcy knows the answer to this one and is being a little... optimistic? :D

    Attached is the current detailed breakdown of performance for the quarter to date of the retail fund relative the index. In summary, for the period 01-Jan-2006 until the 13-Feb-2006 we had the following performance:

    ASX200 Open 4776.0 Close 4817.1 Growth 0.86%
    NavTrade Retail Open 1.106 Close 1.092 Growth -1.28%

    Gap to the index 2.14% in under-performance.

    Not passing judgement at all, just answering the question posed. Still love the fund and still in it for the long haul! :D

    Cheers,
    Michael.
     

    Attached Files:

  4. MrDarcy

    MrDarcy Well-Known Member

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    Thanks Michael, I do like your analysis of the fund’s performance. I'm still not clear in my head of the exact connection between unit price and ASX200, but as share holder I guess no dividends in the near future....

    What I would like to see published daily, along with the unit price and performance, are figures relating to trading gains/losses and "unrealised gains". NI is mainly an income fund and this data seems more relevant to their performance, and my understanding, than just a unit price.
     
  5. MichaelWhyte

    MichaelWhyte Well-Known Member

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    MrDarcy,

    My understanding is that there is no such thing as "unrealised gains". All gains whether they be capital gain or dividends are represented in the current unit price. Hence, my constant use of this as an indication of the current value of my holdings.

    There may be "potential upside" based on perceived good buying, but that is a completely different thing to some mystical "hidden value" or "unrealised gains" not represented in the unit price.

    The unit price is fully representative of the value of your current holdings.

    Cheers,
    Michael.
     
  6. dkmc

    dkmc Well-Known Member

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    Thanks Michael for the great spreadsheet.
    Your excel skills are way ahead of me
    How do you do import asx200 data in, and also navra unit price data
    or do you type them in?

    Also, is XJO a cummulative index, ie does it take into account dividends?
    Im interested in comparing performance from 1st of july 2005, til now
    It gets a bit complicated with navras distributions, and I hope some of you can help

    Thanks
     
  7. MichaelWhyte

    MichaelWhyte Well-Known Member

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    dkmc,

    Navra have their unit price history on their website here:

    http://www.navrainvest.com.au/index.asp?content=unit_prices

    There's a link to download the history of unit prices.

    I get the ASX200 (XJO) closing price history out of my Commonwealth Securities (Comsec) website. If you go to graphs, then there's a link at the bottom to download historic prices. I just graph XJO from the drop down list and then link to historic closing prices.

    Both websites give them to me in excel so I just cut and paste, calculate and graph.

    I think the XJO is just a weighted share price index. If dividends are paid out then share prices will drop when the stock goes ex dividend. So, the XJO does not take into account dividends, its all just growth. With Navra I add back the dividend as I'm looking at the total earnings of my units. So, in a way, I am penalising the XJO in the comparison. It would be higher if I capitalised the dividends somehow.

    Cheers,
    Michael.
     
  8. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Co-founder Staff Member

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    I would suggest that since NavraInvest generally doesn't receive dividends (or only receives a small amount) - it rarely holds a stock long enough to qualify.

    The "income" component of NavraInvest is simply trading profits, which are (arguably) the same as capital growth in the XJO (both happen from increasing share prices) ... so I don't think comparing NavraInvest with XJO is really penalising the XJO much, if at all.
     
  9. MichaelWhyte

    MichaelWhyte Well-Known Member

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    Thanks Sim,

    Good point. If Navra don't get paid much by way of dividends from the stock they hold, then using the unit price of Navra and comparing it to the closing price of the XJO is a fair comparison as they're both just representing growth whether it is achieved via capital gain or trading profits.

    Cheers,
    Michael.
     
  10. Alan

    Alan Well-Known Member

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    I think(?) Steve had previously posted(perhaps he could confirm) and said around 3% was typically received in dividends. It was a while back, so I'm only going on memory.

    Whether this is considered a significant percentage will probably vary from year to year. If the market went screaming backwards for a period without much volatility, then the dividends my indeed comprise a reasonable %. ;)

    I guess this comparing the Fund Performance with the ASX200 will always be an interesting point.

    Would it be fair for the Fund to be compared directly to the Accumulation Index? Probably not, as the trading style would never lend itself to getting the full advantage of the dividends.

    However, at the same time, some dividends are received and therefore I would have thought to get a Performance Fee based on a comparison of the ASX200 gave NavraInvest a bit of a head start in this regard. Not a huge lead, but a start none the less.