Has the market bottomed?

Haha,
You wouldn't believe anything anyone else told you even if it was justified with charts and graphs going back 200 years so what's the point?

Also, no doubt you'd come back with one of your usual 2 page long posts .....

 

As long as its not a train racing towards me

 

I'm a pretty "open to ideas" sort of guy, despite what you may all think, but it's this characteristic that allows me to form an opinion that goes against what the majority of so called "experts" and "pundits" want to say about this situation.

So if you ever feel like you have a good case to support your argument that is backed by some good evidence, analysis and good old fashioned logic I'd be the first person to have a honest read of it before passing judgement.

I just like to be clear and thorough.

AHAHAHA - I wish these forums had like a thumb up/down system.

 

Dow down to 6700 guess there's more to go before the bottom

 

I was thinking in the past: if this is “the mother” of all recessions we are just into 5 year low at ASX. US are at 12 years low so it is just the matter of time. Not trying to predict the bottom but the trend is still down.

 

So 3000 sometime in March is looking increasingly likely. I'm actually surprised how well the market is holding up given how Wall Street has gone in the past few sessions.

Anyway I'm starting to think given this rapid decline we may well see a decent sized rally based on the market being very oversold before we start our next leg down to the 3000 level? What does everyone else think in the short term?

If history is anything to go by the US will probably soon annouce it lost 600K - 700K jobs in Feb prompting the market to rally for some senseless reason.

 

Very Close looking back in time

 

and what recovery that was,
but the question should now be "where to from here"?

Is there more money to be made in shares or should we be cashing up and going back to term deposits for a while?

I say this because profits are maxed out and many companies in their attempt to preserve profits are now manipulating their figures by reducing their number of staff and not giving pay increases but they can't be doing this forever.

Key staff are now more overloaded than ever before & many of them will leave.
Therefore, if some companies no longer have an edge in their industry they will be losing market share and revenue so we could be in for some surprises.

Ofcourse there are still the infrastructure projects but those are too competitive to make any money of and there are so many traps in these government contracts it's no funny...I'm suspecting that anyone winning those contracts is likely to lose money from them.

The only sectors looking ok atm are the resources and the banks.
BUT the worry with our resource companies is that they're getting paid in USD which is going down in value...

I'm very confused atm....

 

I'm playing the "sit and wait" game. Just waiting to see how the worlds economies hold up when the fiscal and monetary stimulus disappear. At this stage nothing has fundamentally changed from two years ago when the crisis really started to begin other than a lot of money was thrown at some pretty major problems. So what I'm really waiting for is pretty significant financial "change" around the world, I haven't seen anything yet...

I guess it depends on your time frame. My feeling is that we are still in a "protect your capital" period and that someone looking beyond the next 3 - 6 months with a set and forget attitude towards investing would probably be better off with a high interest savings account given that rates are set to start moving upwards dramatically and that there are still some longer term issues we need to work through. JMHO.

People only leave if they can find another job, otherwise they are force to work under the conditions their employers request of them.

The banks have been the golden child of the ASX of late, but I just can't get my head around why everyone is back on them aside from the fact that they have done massive capital raising, plus the government won't let them fail in the event that things turned south again...

For me the banks still carry massive risks, but of course if any one of the big banks collapses our entire debt laden economy would go with it.

I'm confused too...

 

meanwhile BHP is not looking too good atm

BHP Billiton investigates Olympic Dam mine damage | The Australian