Trading Houston ...

DOW down over 1% so far, looks like we have some more woods to go yet!

 

So far...so good.....Keep on buying....
'Man in Black' can not survive without buyers...

 

Yep, Dow down 200 odd points at close, so should be an interesting day of trading here on Monday

 

How's it going today?

How's it all going with you all today? I have a nice crop of red today. Couldn't resist grabbing a couple more PPT though.

 

A hell of a lot better than I thought, and much better than Friday (so far!) but still a little too much red for my liking. Personally I am keeping my stops in place and sitting out on any new buys until I am confident this isnt the start of the big slide.
We are pretty close to the old 6000 mark...

 

"Personally I am keeping my stops in place and sitting out on any new buys until I am confident this isnt the start of the big slide."

That is the way to go....[standing aside is a position]
We may wait a long time before DOW hits 14 000 again. In this case our market may travel sideways for a long time.

 

"Couldn't resist grabbing a couple more PPT though."

Oh dear!
Today PPT gapped down on open (bearish sign). So far PPT is approx. 2% down.
I am just curious, why you are buying (long) stock like PPT which is evidently trending down for more than a week?

 

I am buying for (long) term hold and the dividends will be my retirement income one day. The return and the risk are acceptable to me at this time and it is no inconvenience if it wobbles around a bit.

 

PS: Did you see the nice drop at 1pm before it went back up? That's when I bought.

 

"PS: Did you see the nice drop at 1pm before it went back up? That's when I bought."

Aaaaaaa. O.K. I heard about this....To me (only my view !!) this kind of approach is very risky.
You are very brave believing that PPT will still be around when you retire - unless you retire next week
But if the return and risk is acceptable to you - that is what really matters.

Re PS :
Can not comment on this. I do not have live charts anymore.
But on the 20 min delayed chart I see PPT sliding down from the open.
Getting PPT on mini dip (bottom fishing) may be profitable if you sell before next dip occurs (possibly ???? before close).
If you invest LONG term (as you said) - small dips should not concern you.
Getting in/out on dips/tops is a daytraders job NOT investors.
Anyway.....Happy investing.

PS - Oh by the way how much are the dividends at the moment?

 

Guys,

A little bit of insight into how these things have played out over the past 60 years or so...

I think those numbers are about right for this current scenario too. i.e. It will take months for the market to recovery to previous highs, and expect further falls before it starts trending back upwards. If the Dow has shed 5% then we're only half way through this pull-back (I use pull-back as technically 10% or more is a correction).

But, I believe this is going to be the 19th of 20 times that it stays bullish and recovers to previous highs. I don't think this is going to be the 2nd of 20 times that it dives straight into a bear market and continues falling beyond single digit drops.

Cheers,
Michael.

 

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/_/_gspc

Pity it doesnt show back further.

 

Bundy,

For those with a long term perspective, that's a clear super bull cycle since 1975...

 

The man walking up the stairs with a yoyo that someone coined comes to mind.

Just have to keep an eye on the big picture and not get smacked in the toe by the yoyo.

 

I like that yoyo metaphor. But I like this one better:

The rose is the most beautiful flower because it’s the most simple. But every now and again you have to cut it off and prune the bush so an even better rose will grow.

(maybe Louis Armstrong, according to Billy Crystal, according to Alan Kohler).

 

The victorious army wins first and then seeks battle.
A wise leader rigorously adheres to method and discipline and thus it is in his power to control success.
Sun Tze 6th century BC

 

Finally some black is back in the portfolio!

 

Was yesterday optimal buy time?

I am wondering if yesterday's lowest low was optimal buy time?

Highest XJO S&P/ASX 200 6432.20 24/07/07
Recent lowest (less 6%) 6044.30 30/07/07
High less 10% 5789.43
Biggest low this year 5441.10 6/03/07
Lowest in just over 12mths 4899.90 19/07/07

Note the best price just over a year ago, (it is 11 days different in date terms, just a year earlier). It never came down to 4899.90 again. Was yesterday the time to buy?

Is optimim time to buy likely to be more like the highest, less 10% which would be 5789.43? Would that occur around Feb-March next year?

What do you all think?

 

I think days that have a drop are good for buying with caution. You do have to trust that the fundamentals are right and your buying on technical weakness.

 

I'll let you know in 3 months